ECHO Comment: "Fears of Witch-hunt Against Liverpool FC" part 3

[number4.]

Comical seeing that lot placing their hopes on a fit Matip.

absolutely crazy situation they have left themselves in. Fabinho missing is the killer for them, I think his absense from MF is more costly than Van Dijk and Joe Gomez; I do wonder whether they would be better off trusting the kids at Centre half with him in front, rather than him adapting and losing that protection

 

[davek]

absolutely crazy situation they have left themselves in. Fabinho missing is the killer for them, I think his absense from MF is more costly than Van Dijk and Joe Gomez; I do wonder whether they would be better off trusting the kids at Centre half with him in front, rather than him adapting and losing that protection

Williams and Phillips? They look tripe.

 

[number4.]

Williams and Phillips? They look tripe.

Yes they do - but the question is are you better off with tripe at the back with some protection from a quality DMF, or losing that defenise midfield for an alright CB

 

[davek]

Yes they do - but the question is are you better off with tripe at the back with some protection from a quality DMF, or losing that defenise midfield for an alright CB

A rock and a hard place.

 

[Saint Domingo]

Yes they do - but the question is are you better off with tripe at the back with some protection from a quality DMF, or losing that defenise midfield for an alright CB

Their defence hasn’t been the issue against West Brom, Newcastle and Southampton. They’ve only conceded two goals from set pieces. The best front three in world football to ever exist haven’t been at it since Palace.

 

[DanEFC92]

 

[4737carlin]

I wonder why?

 

[degsy]

The issue with a pause is with timings. If they have any sense (which lets face it to put themselves on this mess they probably don't) they will keep going. It's my personal view that football at a time like this is an insult, but unfortunately that battle has been fought and lost last summer and greed won out.

Now it's been established you can play in a pandemic, it's hard to see any sense that you stop playing. As once you stop, it's going to be very difficult to start again and you run the risk of being timed out.

The approach is correct really, keep playing games and probably be more generous with cancellations (if teams have an outbreak, isolate). Make games up in the back end in cup and European weeks with a possible extension of 1-2 weeks at the back end. It's a farce, but a lot less of a farce than a summer circus like last year. Seasons can't have weeks, never mind months breaks between them and maintain any credibility.

...and this seasons Champions League - not forgetting the money of course.
Finishing this season, then gives us...The Champion's League - not forgetting the money of course.

iirc, we suspended last season after a few others did.
This season we'll be the cause, the first to fold - maybe only for 2 or 3 weeks - not forgetting the money of course

 

[degsy]

The issue with a pause is with timings. If they have any sense (which lets face it to put themselves on this mess they probably don't) they will keep going. It's my personal view that football at a time like this is an insult, but unfortunately that battle has been fought and lost last summer and greed won out.

Now it's been established you can play in a pandemic, it's hard to see any sense that you stop playing. As once you stop, it's going to be very difficult to start again and you run the risk of being timed out.

The approach is correct really, keep playing games and probably be more generous with cancellations (if teams have an outbreak, isolate). Make games up in the back end in cup and European weeks with a possible extension of 1-2 weeks at the back end. It's a farce, but a lot less of a farce than a summer circus like last year. Seasons can't have weeks, never mind months breaks between them and maintain any credibility.

...and this seasons Champions League - not forgetting the money of course.
Finishing this season, then gives us...The Champions League - not forgetting the money of course.

iirc, we suspended last season after a few others did.
This season we'll be the cause, the first to fold - maybe only for 2 or 3 weeks - not forgetting the money of course

 

[catcherintherye]

Clearly the accounts are going to be an issue, as they will for anyone who isn't essentially privately guaranteed, which they most certainly are not. That said, I was surprised to see the invest in Thiago's wages and Jota last summer, given there was no sense of clarity around the post covid environment, so whether they borrow at 0%, which many people would argue is a very very prudent tactic, or they can just about thread water as is, they don't seem to be drowning yet. You mention a figure of losses of £100m, Im no expert in their finances, but I did read they expect a loss of income of circa £100m, that is very different to losses of £100, to the best of my knowledge they churned a decent profit in 2019 & 2018.

Regarding the January Transfer Window, I'm very very surprised they didnt move early for someone, they are playing Man United at the weekend with more than likely zero senior centre halves available, which just seems wreckless. Clearly it's a difficult market, where desperation will be exploited. Liverpool are desperate, but also seem stubborn. If they were to sign someone now, you are probably looking at a month before they can play as they would need to quarantine before training and then catch-up, learn the system and what not. My take is either they are writing off their title chances and banking on top 4, or there is positive news behind the scenes on Van dijk and/or Gomez, which seems farfetched, but not impossible.

Regarding Summer 2021, whether it be in regards to BMD, project restart of their football finances, my take is things are going to get worse before they get better. I believe the penny is starting to drop that there is a very slim chance of crowds in 2021 and at this stage you wouldnt be sure we will have stadium normality in 2022, if ever again (sigh). No doubt their squad is due a refresh and I am sure that was the plan for summer 2020 pre covid, but understandably that didnt happen. My take would certainly be that they will certainly have at least one high profile departure, probably Salah, but I would also look at the finances of their Nike deal and suggest a flagship signing seems inevitable. I very very much doubt that would be M'bappe, but dont think it's of beyond the realms of possibility, especially when you seen Nike / L'Bron James and M'bappe launching a football boot & courtshoe partnership. Sancho or someone at that level seems far far more likely.


So a long reply summarised - bizarre decision not to buy a centre half now & they are taking a massive massive risk on missing out on top 4, there could be 6 teams about 70 and below 80 points come the end of the season

No worries on the length it was an interesting read.

On the profits/losses, I think profits 100m down will be quite cautious actually. There will be implied assumptions of fans being back by the end of 2020 and spending on merch etc to hold up. I am guessing figures and we will have to see them, but I just don't think merch spending will be anything like pre covid levels for any team. As for losses they made a big profit in 18 when they sold Coutinho and got to the UC final. Repeated the long run in Europe in 19. A lot of that revenue down in 20. By 19 they had already lost most of the profit (40m ish from memory in 18) mainly down to wages. I don't know if it was all bonuses for winning the CL, or whether the contracts had an uplift (so winning the CL took the wage from say 200k-250k) or a bit of both, but the uplift was significant. Wages rose to around £330m with no major signings and in truth not an awful lot of new contracts being agreed. Given they won the league in 2020, I suspect there will be a similar uplift.Expect wages to be above 350, maybe pushing 400m.

So you then start throwing a big loss if income on top, and I think losses will be bigger. The only issue is it will be capped to May/June. Next years accounts will be worse. The elephant in the room is player trading, that is a bit more complex and they may have done things to help mitigate some of the losses.

As for spending, I was surprised they spent so much too. The dynamic you point out is right too, unless you have a philanthropic owner who will throw money at it, you will have real problems (if we didn't have Moshiri and/or others our situation would be fire). I was surprised they spent so much, even though most of their fans were somewhere between underwhelmed and approaching a Trump style mob wanting to lynch John Henry during the window.

A couple of thoughts on it for me- firstly the whole of football spent more than it should. I think there was an effort from agents, players, reps, chariman etc to try and present a brave face to a difficult situation, and try to prevent a market collapse. None of the results were released at that point and for obvious reasons, and dramatic contraction will have a variety of negative consequence for the football pyramid. To a degree Liverpool got caught up in that.
The other point, is if you ask anyone connected to the club about the spending the answer is always the same- they are very very keen to point out they spread deals over the contract. I'm not sure there was much of a downpayment at all oh Thaigo (and would explain the endless wranglings). Likewise Jota's fee at 45m was very high, a price paid to cover probably for most of it being loaded over the 5 years.

The issue they have, is next summer they will have to pay for them again, at similar outlay to this summer, which was just about what they could do last summer.

As for borrowing, I mean maybe they can borrow, but I'll be amazed if they, or anyone can borrow at 0% commercially. The only club who did that were Spurs, there were a lot of stipulations to jump through, and it has to be paid back (to my knowledge) this year in full. If company were handing out 0% credit, why just through the hoops of the government? The whole world and his dog wants to borrow money currently, and there's obviously significant pressure on lenders to avoid being exposed. I doubt credit was available before the crash at less than 4-5% (it could be lower for infastructure as there's a tangible asset at the end and security at the start) but for day to day running, football is a big risk for lenders, even well run football clubs. It's not really my area, but I'd be very surprised if such a rate wasn't doubled. It could be any degree higher really, by 8-10% on borrowing would not seem unrealistic to me. I mean if you have supporting evidence for the 0% I'd be interested to see it!

My gut feeling is they are writing the season off. If VVD comes back early fine (when you look at Wesley with a similar injury and he's not kicked a ball 12 months on it makes it less likely). I don't know what Gomez has actually got, but if he loses pace mobility he's an issue too, so not sure it's about them comiong back. My sense is they will write this season off, hopeful they will still have enough to be in the CL. It looks likely they will.

Come the summer, their plan will be to sell Salah for big bucks and re-invest in younger players. I don't think they will get the hig bucks they think for Salah (it looks like RM have made Mbappe top target).

For all the negatives it implies, FSG are quite a smart group of traders, so it's not all bad. It's probably quite smart, as I think I said before, you let the dip ride out, move the team on and rebuild again. It will actually be quite smart busienss practice, but what will be difficult, is through the lens of football, it will look very different and the commentary around it would take a different context.

They are just my thoughts though. Maybe they go and and magically have loads of money between now and June and go and get a top CB in. They will need one. The likelihood is Gomez and VVD will not be the same players they were pre injury. He clearly doesn't rate any of the young lads. That leaves Matip, who is too injury prone to play.

 

[degsy]

I think they’re certs for top 4. At the moment it looks like a three horse race for the title. City Liverpool United. I think United need to avoid losing at Anfield to have a chance. It could come down to who incurs more injuries second half of the season. If Fernandes De Bruyne or Mane go down those teams can kiss goodbye.

4th spot though is there for whoever grabs it. On paper it should be a shoot out between Spurs and Chelsea and I’d still fancy Spurs to take it. That said us and Leicester are still in there after 17 games so there’s no logic to say we can’t maintain this form for a whole season with our players returning to fitness and no europe in the second half.

If I had to put my house on it I’d say City, Liverpool, United, Spurs in that order. Jose will do enough.

What would be interesting though is if City can pull away over this next period and get a gap. Liverpool may then focus on the CL and might leave themselves open to the chasing pack.

Klopp would love a 3 week break, get 'the juices' flowing again so to speak

 

[catcherintherye]

I think they’re certs for top 4. At the moment it looks like a three horse race for the title. City Liverpool United. I think United need to avoid losing at Anfield to have a chance. It could come down to who incurs more injuries second half of the season. If Fernandes De Bruyne or Mane go down those teams can kiss goodbye.

4th spot though is there for whoever grabs it. On paper it should be a shoot out between Spurs and Chelsea and I’d still fancy Spurs to take it. That said us and Leicester are still in there after 17 games so there’s no logic to say we can’t maintain this form for a whole season with our players returning to fitness and no europe in the second half.

If I had to put my house on it I’d say City, Liverpool, United, Spurs in that order. Jose will do enough.

What would be interesting though is if City can pull away over this next period and get a gap. Liverpool may then focus on the CL and might leave themselves open to the chasing pack.

They are very likely for top 4. It would need a major issue to stop them. It's not unfeasible for that to occur. It could impode for them. I think we are getting close to that point actually. A defeat against United will really pile a lot of pressure on. Unfortunately in previous seasons, whenever they've been on the ropes, they've managed to get the big win when they needed it, so will probably defeat United.

 

[PaulPowersTash]

Knowing how jammy the RS are they'll probably go out and beat the Manc's comfortably, then we'll have the media in wankfest mode again.

It wouldn't be surprising.
SKY & the Premier League have been dreaming about this situation for over a decade.
Can't see them letting slip now.

Heard ya the second time.

I wonder why?

View attachment 113931

Slowing down?
He's speeding up!
All down to his 'astonishing mindset' of course.
(Don't mention the inhaler!)

 

[catcherintherye]

absolutely crazy situation they have left themselves in. Fabinho missing is the killer for them, I think his absense from MF is more costly than Van Dijk and Joe Gomez; I do wonder whether they would be better off trusting the kids at Centre half with him in front, rather than him adapting and losing that protection

I've put a longer reply to you, but what it shows you is Klopp does not rate Komadeio, Willaims or Phillips (albeit he is about 25). They won't make the grade.

Fabinho is a big miss. I mean they do slightly overrate him, but he's a very good CM, and is not (as they claim) a world class Centre back.

 

[catcherintherye]

It wouldn't be surprising.
SKY & the Premier League have been dreaming about this situation for over a decade.
Can't see them letting slip now.



Slowing down?
He's speeding up!
All down to his 'astonishing mindset' of course.
(Don't mention the inhaler!)

From a Ciry perspective (as I make you favourites) who ar eyou more worried about in terms of United/Liverpool this season? You're probably as close as you can get to a neutral on this