Usmanov

[toffee-boy]

Arsenal Shares 30% = 525m - BMD 500m = 25m profit (Quick maths)

 

[catcherintherye]

That is where the Esk’s argument falls down. He doesn’t know why anyone would pay for a slice of the pie without having any influence. If that slice is growing all the time though then an investor may want exactly this as they would make money without doing anything.

There is a lot of precedent for investors buying a minority shareholding. I'm not saying it will happen but it certainly could and does happen.

 

[Frang]

As I have said for some time on this, we have seen a continual chipping away at the position on this question. You've had the USM sponsorship, Moshiri's comments that "they always do things together" being seen together at a match, Usmanov through back channels suggesting he might be looking to sell shares, and now this article. Each has been a slow incremental move towards Usmanov coming to Everton looking more likely.
Whether all of the above has been planned with each leek being thought through, or whether it is events taking control we will not know, but you could certainly see all of the above events through the paradigm of a clear plan from Usmanov to move to Everton. The events certainly make sense from that viewpoint (though it is questionable whether true).

The latest article is another big jump. The FT is not just a respected main stream media outlet, it is the media outlet for the circles Usmanov mingles in not just in this country but in the world. It is simply not plausible for such an outlet for such an outlet to want to run such a story without the agreement of Usmanov and given the nature of the story it looks to be as if he has gone to them to plant the story. You have to see the FT as a meeting space for international commerce and this is Usmanov letting it be known to the entire business community that his shares are now available. I'm not sure we can write it off as tabloid nonsense.

Those who have been sceptical of Usmanov joining Everton have essentially been sceptical on the basis that he would not either be able to, willing to or want to leave Arsenal. I have no seen anyone make much of an argument yet that if if were free to do so he would not want to invest in Everton. It would go against any kind of consistency in his business approach. The calls that he'd invest in another club shouldn't be taken very seriously as it would have very little precedent in not just his role in the past, but also how any investor would act. Why would you allow your closest business partner, to invest in a club, sponsor said club, become a formal part of club with your money, sell shares in a rival club to then go and buy into a third club? Thats before you get into the obvious question of which club really offers the viability of option and potential Everton does?

Given the major obstacle has always been at the Arsenal end, much of the truths that have been said have been proven to be completely untrue. I don't think anybody could seriously say now that Usmanov would not consider selling his shares. I also don't think it could really be argued he's not actively looking to do so.

In situations like this, you have to look at events. Ask yourself "why would he come in at this moment". We tend to look at things from the perspective of the cycle of transfer windows and playing staff. We question why he doesn't come in to spend money on players. Put simply he won't look from that perspective. You get 2 windows a season and there's nothing particularly unique about that.

The unique event is the stadium. It's funding, the start of the project and the further business opportunities that will come from that. I've always contended any move from Usmanov would likely be timed around announcements to do with this. There has been a lot of talk of him coming and some suggested he'd already be in and Kenwright would be gone. That has been delayed, as has finalising funding for the stadium. Again it's not unreasonable to suggest the two may be linked.

im fully expecting a bigger Kroenke bid after this, as it is the only viable option.

if Usmanov feels that he has got the better end of the deal(as in a huge profit) he will agree to it no doubt.

the article is just a 'come get my shares Stan, im ready'

 

[fandjango]

Wonder if farad would take a step back to allow uzzie on board

Hahaha

 

[catcherintherye]

The club is at its lowest point in 20 years. For 525m you can buy Newcastle for 350m, and put 200m into transfers. Or 30% of arsenal who are way off even getting top 4, and kronke makes all of the decisions.

Partnerships like that don't last at 50/50, let alone 70/30.

Well lets deal with the 3 points individually. Firstly on what basis are you measuring "lowest point in 20 years?" Arsenal are unrecognisably bigger, richer, weathier, more powerful, better positioned for growth than they were in 1998.

He could buy Newcastle for 325 million. It would be a substantially poorer investment than Everton. Everton have a far better history, brand and story to tell but one that is as yet untapped. We are situated in a much better zone for football in the North West. Are not a yo-yo club like they are who have suffered multiple relegations in the last 10 years.

They have a stadium in a poor part of town that would cost significant values to update. There is no location in Newcastle with the economic potential of the waterfront. Everton, the new stadium and the waterfront project are all untapped resources that are leagues apart (often literally on the football side) than Newcastle. So he could invest in Newcastle, for more money than Everton, but the value he would have invest in the squad alone to put them around where Everton are currently at would mean for similar money he can buy Everton, and likely pay for the ground (a hefty downpayment). From an investors perspective it would not be done and this is why there is no talk of him doing so, or his best mate and business partner didn't invest in Newcastle, or he hasn't already invested substantial revenues in the club via sponsorship.

It is not even close to being as viable as Everton as a club.

Your final point is simply untrue. In almost every business you have minority shareholders who have zero influence. Chinese investors (who make up a large portion of the investment arm coming into sport) not only say they would do, but actively look for clubs to invest as a minority shareholder.

On all 3 point you make, that Arsenal are at their lowest point in 20 years, that Newcastle would represent an investment opportunity in any way comparable to Everton and that minority shareholder with no representation at board level "don't last" are untrue simply not supported by the evidence.

 

[catcherintherye]

im fully expecting a bigger Kroenke bid after this, as it is the only viable option.

if Usmanov feels that he has got the better end of the deal(as in a huge profit) he will agree to it no doubt.

the article is just a 'come get my shares Stan, im ready'

I have long speculated that there might be a price point for the 2 of them where both save face. Usmanov clearly wants to charge Kroenke extra to prove a point, while Kroenke doesn't want to pay too much extra but to still buy him out and "win". If there is a point where both parties feel they can "win" from the negotiation it will be done.

 

[Steve Wigan]

Did I read somewhere that Usmanov has acquired 25% of the Liver Building from Moshiri? This to me is an indication, if one were needed, that Usmanov is very interested in developments on Merseyside well beyond those developments which are football related.

 

[RomanReigns]

uncle uzzy is coming on board!!!!

 

[degsy]

So its all on again?
Edit;...well as much as it ever was, which nobody can put an actual percentage on like 50/50

 

[Yarrgh]

Considering how much Kronke would love to get his hands on those shares I am surprised he hasn't got someone else to buy them on his behalf and then sell them straight to him after.

At worst, you buy them and know there's another buyer if they don't perform as well as you'd have liked them to perform. The risk of getting a haircut on this deal is mitigated by this. There's money in the shares for the buyer though. If I had a billion or so, I'd have me a piece of Arsenal.

 

[technojoe]

Oh baby this is exciting!

 

[HongKongToffee]

 

[Neiler]

I dont see it happening personally.

I see the two of them being in cahoots at Everton and Arsenal like a consortium, one at Everton the other at Arsenal.

I think because the stake in Arsenal grew in vaule so much , they said to themsleves it makes sense to double our exposure in the PL. Cue Mosh coming to Everton so one holds their exposure in Arsenal the other in Everton, they double their exposure to the gravy train. Why would you throw the whole lot in at Everton when you will make more in your investment at Arsenal and Everton. Then just Everton.

The only time i see that changing is when their investment is better off wholly at Everton, i'm not sure that is the case.

Just my opinion mind. I dont accept the sporting or vanity argument.

 

[Moomin]

looking at Newcastle is the rumours from the North East.

 

[ashwuk76]

looking at Newcastle is the rumours from the North East.

Those Geordie meffs are delusional.