4th Place - What's it going to take?

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I imagine it'll go down to final day. It would be ironic if jelavic scored a goal that prevented us from finishing 4th.
 

Arsenal's away form is abysmal, and they only have 2 wins in their last 9 PL matches. So say they win all 3 three home matches and draw the 2 away ones. (best case scenario for them IMO) We'd need 75 points then to match them and take 4th (provided we can maintain our superior goal difference) Can we take 12 points from 6 matches? I'd say from the Sunderland, Crystal Palace, Southampton and Hull we shoud be targetting 3 wins. Then all we have to do is avoid defeat in the other 3 matches and we're in. Getting a point from City at home would be pivotal for us. If we managed to get 3 points from the City game I'd say 4th is comfortably ours.

It's still a big ask, but if our current form continues I don't see why we can't do it.
 
12 points looks to be enough definitely.. there will be a very fine line between that amount of points.
 
Just win every game and then there is no maybe about it. I'm sure that is what Roberto is telling the players and after yesterdays performance it isn't beyond the realms of possibility.
 
I reckon we've broken Arsenal now. They'll prioritize the FAC and will drop further points that will "surprise" the pundits.

At best, I can see them with 3xWins, 1xDraw, 1xLoss (10pts; 74 total) That's a dramatic upturn from their recent form. More realistically I can see them limping home with something like 2xWins, 1xDraw, 2 Losses (7pts; 71 total).


75 points should definitely be enough, I reckon, but we may get away with 72 or 73.
 

I don't think Arsenal will win four of their last five, which would mean they'd get 11 more points max. So, goal difference allowing, I think four wins or 3W 3D would be enough.

I'm pretty optimistic we can get 13-16 points, though.
 
I reckon we've broken Arsenal now. They'll prioritize the FAC and will drop further points that will "surprise" the pundits.

At best, I can see them with 3xWins, 1xDraw, 1xLoss (10pts; 74 total) That's a dramatic upturn from their recent form. More realistically I can see them limping home with something like 2xWins, 1xDraw, 2 Losses (7pts; 71 total).


75 points should definitely be enough, I reckon, but we may get away with 72 or 73.

Just bolded that bit due to how massive the Sunderland game will be. We really need to beat them handsomely. score 4 or 5 boosting the GD and Arsenal will start to panic. Scrappy win, or worse, drop points, and they will see an easier set of fixtures on paper and pick themselves up.

When people talk about dropped points, surely the boxing day fiasco against the Black Cats is the result that got away! We owe these big time for ending our CL hopes last season and taking our fine home record this season!

I hope we smash them!
 
Think we could really do with 9 from 9 in the next three games now tbh. 7 at the very least, barring an Arsenal slip-up, which we don't really want to be relying on.

If we can get those three wins, I believe, even with those tricky last 3 games, we'd have enough to get over the line.
 
Because we're used to Everton stuttering in seasons gone by, and Arsenal "always" getting in the top 4 I am not overly optimistic. I think they will get 13/15 which would put them on 77 points. But that is only based on them beating sides they should etc and they look all over the place at the moment. The negative is that Ramsey is back. He will be a massive boost for them.

However, as i've just said, being pessimistic is down to what we usually do, but this season feels different. I felt nervous before the last 3 games. Expecting us to mess up as we always do. But for the last 6 games we've come through every time, despite being up against it against Cardiff, Swansea and Fulham. The Fulham game has given us huge belief because in seasons gone by, we would have drawn or lost that after conceding fairly late on.

If Arsenal finish strong, I think we need 77 points to do it (I expect our GD to be better). If Arsenal stutter, than 75 should do it.
 

Just bolded that bit due to how massive the Sunderland game will be. We really need to beat them handsomely. score 4 or 5 boosting the GD and Arsenal will start to panic. Scrappy win, or worse, drop points, and they will see an easier set of fixtures on paper and pick themselves up.

When people talk about dropped points, surely the boxing day fiasco against the Black Cats is the result that got away! We owe these big time for ending our CL hopes last season and taking our fine home record this season!

I hope we smash them!

I'd bite your hand off if you offered me a scrappy win against Sunderland. All about Points now, not performances.
 
I'd bite your hand off if you offered me a scrappy win against Sunderland. All about Points now, not performances.

Agreed. I'd take a 1-0 in the 90th with a Tim Howard clearance beating everyone and bouncing over the keeper. Though my nerves would be absolutely shot if that happened.
 
I'd bite your hand off if you offered me a scrappy win against Sunderland. All about Points now, not performances.

True, but another swashbuckling performance like yesterday would show real character and determination. I understand fully when you look at how Liverpool are jamming their way to 3 points most weeks but do you think a ref might give us 3 pens in one game? or even 2 for that matter...






ONE even!
 

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