Is 7th and "Net Spend" The Only Reason To Keep Moyes

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

It obviously doesn't mate. If we're finishing average 7th and 14th net spend. Arsenal finishing 4th and 20th net spend it's obviously not all about money. Thats If you want the flip side of your post.

I didn't say it was ALL about the money, I said there was a direct correlation between spending & success, which there is.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

I'd say the most important part of a manager's job is to set up his side to get the best out of his players, in order to win games.

The transfer market can be used to fill a void that a club may have in their playing staff, but ultimately it's all about the matches.

You can set up the side any way you like & have the best tactical nouse on the planet, but if you're working with donkeys you're not going to produce a successful side on a sustainable basis.

 

[Dell Boy]

Here we go.

You do not need to be a billionaire to improve us financially. £5m a season would be a start. Moyes once went 2 years without signing a first team player ffs.

But you're right, nobody is going to buy us in the current climate. Well, not when Blue Bill wants £125m for a club with no assets and £50m of debt.

Humour me. What's a fair price for the club?

Assets = Players (£100 - £150 million), a 'safe' place in the Premier League, global marketing opportunity etc etc

Goodison and Finch Farm may as well be fully fleged assets given that the cost of finance for both will be included in the club's EBITDA. Likewise the debt is being serviced - at a cost.

New TV deal sees the club make what £20m - £30m a year 'profit'?

'Uniqueness' premium = last big club not owned by a billionaire/sports fund

Future potential = arguably the best sports 'product' in the world. Looking to break into Asia and untold billions of new customers

So what's a fair price?

 

[Little Ralphy]

You can set up the side any way you like & have the best tactical nouse on the planet, but if you're working with donkeys you're not going to produce a successful side on a sustainable basis.

But you can get the best out of those donkeys.

I think some people have a naive view on football management.

Trading players is only part of a manager's role, and in some big clubs the manager has very little say in the players that are traded.

Ultimately a manager is judged on his results and it's his job to get the best out of the side at his disposal. Otherwise you wouldn't need a manager at all.

 

[Dell Boy]

To add to the above - the level of earnings to price varies hugely between say 3 and 25 (the latter in the case of something like Apple or Google). In the UK business world today, even in the recession, you cannot pick up anything other than a tinpot business for less than 3, 4 or 5 times earnings. Anything with a half decent record is in the area 5-8. Given Everton have been in the top 10 however many times in the last 10 years it is easy to see where you can get to at least a £100m valuation.

 

[Brennan]

Humour me. What's a fair price for the club?

Assets = Players (£100 - £150 million), a 'safe' place in the Premier League, global marketing opportunity etc etc

Goodison and Finch Farm may as well be fully fleged assets given that the cost of finance for both will be included in the club's EBITDA. Likewise the debt is being serviced - at a cost.

New TV deal sees the club make what £20m - £30m a year 'profit'?

'Uniqueness' premium = last big club not owned by a billionaire/sports fund

Future potential = arguably the best sports 'product' in the world. Looking to break into Asia and untold billions of new customers

So what's a fair price?

Chelsea sold for £140m, and they have a much better stadium with good corporate facilities, they had a better squad at the time and crucially they're a London club. I bet they own their own training ground too.

 

[Brennan]

To add to the above - the level of earnings to price varies hugely between say 3 and 25 (the latter in the case of something like Apple or Google). In the UK business world today, even in the recession, you cannot pick up anything other than a tinpot business for less than 3, 4 or 5 times earnings. Anything with a half decent record is in the area 5-8. Given Everton have been in the top 10 however many times in the last 10 years it is easy to see where you can get to at least a £100m valuation.

Football is not comparable to traditional businesses, moot point.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

But you can get the best out of those donkeys.

I think some people have a naive view on football management.

Trading players is only part of a manager's role, and in some big clubs the manager has very little say in the players that are traded.

Ultimately a manager is judged on his results and it's his job to get the best out of the side at his disposal. Otherwise you wouldn't need a manager at all.

Naive? what's naive about stating the obvious i.e. you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear?

Of course the manager has a massive repsonsibility in terms of shaping the side, deciding tactics, training methods etc etc etc, but my point was simple - he will ultimately be limited by the quality of player he has to work with & in the PL that in turn is defined by his budgets - it aint complicated.

 

[Little Ralphy]

Chelsea sold for £140m, and they have a much better stadium with good corporate facilities, they had a better squad at the time and crucially they're a London club. I bet they own their own training ground too.

Just for interest. When was that and how much was TV income at that point?

 

[Brennan]

Just for interest. When was that and how much was TV income at that point?

No idea, but it's irrelevant as within a few seasons wages and other costs will have risen and pretty much wiped that out.

 

[Dell Boy]

Football is not comparable to traditional businesses, moot point.

Tell me why not? It's an entertainment business for sure but in such a category you'd have everything from theatres to TV channels and film production companies. Likewise professional companies like accountants and even advertising companies all come with particular issues in terms of their special talent staff.

IF Everton are projected to turn a profit next year of £30m - despite all the debt/loan payments - then any purchase price has to be a decent multiple of that.

I appreciate the players cannot be part of the valuation (as in they are material to the ongoing business) but for any prospective owner it sure is good to know that you have assets you could flog quickly if it starts to go down the pan (look at Portsmouth and Birmingham etc).

Abramovich pocketed a steal at the price he paid.

Mike Ashley has also made a packet.

And both of those deals were before the new TV contract.

 

[Stend]

Nobody's even made an offer for the club. Have you seen the state of the finances and our stadium. We're a joke. You'd have to be willing to burn 300million to even give us a kick start.

 

[Little Ralphy]

Naive? what's naive about stating the obvious i.e. you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear?

Of course the manager has a massive repsonsibility in terms of shaping the side, deciding tactics, training methods etc etc etc, but my point was simple - he will ultimately be limited by the quality of player he has to work with & in the PL that in turn is defined by his budgets - it aint complicated.

It's all about the matches though. A manager could go out and assemble the World's 11 best players, but if he then has them playing a long ball game or out of position then he'll lose his job because he's not getting the results.

It's all too easy to blame lack of finance for a manager's failings (not directed at Moyes) but ultimately a Manager's job is to get the best out of the players at his disposal so that they can win football matches. Anything else is secondary, a manager will always be judged on the results on the field.

 

[Dell Boy]

I bet they own their own training ground too.

That's completely irrelevant to this debate about the club's value!!

In our books it has us down a £1.3m a year negative for rent on Finch Farm. That figure is then capitalised in looking at a final business.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

To add to the above - the level of earnings to price varies hugely between say 3 and 25 (the latter in the case of something like Apple or Google). In the UK business world today, even in the recession, you cannot pick up anything other than a tinpot business for less than 3, 4 or 5 times earnings. Anything with a half decent record is in the area 5-8. Given Everton have been in the top 10 however many times in the last 10 years it is easy to see where you can get to at least a £100m valuation.

EFC currently has a negative EBITDA & has been for sale for years according to it's current Chairman.

It's not sold, so therefore there's either been no interest - which is again something that has been dismissed by the Chairman as he's described there being plenty of interest, or something else has put off ALL of the prospective purchasers to this point..........I'm guessing it wasn't the washed out blue gravel myself like....