Relegation 23/24 Thread

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Yes, that is why I put the injuries/management caveat. I agree 5pts would have us hovering right around the relegation places possibly, but just the right side of it imo. Personally think we should be good for a couple result improvement on last year, and hopefully that will be just enough to steer us safe/clear. Could be tight, and a little bit of squeaky bum time, but survivable.
Too much of a risk.

It's as simple as this for me:

no points deductions and we survive with a bit to spare

points deductions and we are relegated
 
The table tends to 'settle down' and look a little like how it will come the end of the season. However:

Here's last season after 10 games:

1698842523299.png


Granted, a better league position than now, but only 2 points off the relegation zone and 5 points off the bottom. Here's the table after 20 games:

1698842782365.png


Proper in the proverbial.

Here's 2021/22 after 10 games

1698842634166.png


A better league position and points total - but the form dip already apparent. After 20:

1698842905277.png


Far too close for comfort.

What's the point I'm making?

On the face of it: we look OK, and (unless something catastrophic happens whether it point reduction or a major injury crisis) I think it will stay that was this season, despite the trend of the last couple of seasons. Ultimately, because the teams in the bottom 3 now are worse than the previous (and I can't see another 'Newcastle' happening).

But as a few others have mentioned - it's gameweek 10 - 20 which has knackered us recently : only 5 points from 10 games.

It's a low bar, but if we're on the 20 point mark after 20 games I can see us being anywhere between 7 and 12 points clear of the relegation zone - which would surely be insurmountable for the bottom 3 claw back.

Let's just have a nice comfortable mid-table obscurity finish to the season FFS.
 
But if we’d survive with “a bit to spare” without a deduction, then how would we definitely be relegated with like a 3-5 point deduction? That makes no sense?
It makes perfect sense. If we get 40 points then that will be with about 3-5 points to spare on the bottom 3 in all likelihood, who'll get maybe 35/36 points in 18th place.

If we get a 5 points deduction we are in massive trouble, and relegated for sure with 6-10 points taken off.
 

But if we’d survive with “a bit to spare” without a deduction, then how would we definitely be relegated with like a 3-5 point deduction? That makes no sense?

There would be a psychological impact if we were deducted points though, would put more pressure on games for players, manager and fans alike.
 
The table tends to 'settle down' and look a little like how it will come the end of the season. However:

Here's last season after 10 games:

View attachment 233548

Granted, a better league position than now, but only 2 points off the relegation zone and 5 points off the bottom. Here's the table after 20 games:

View attachment 233550

Proper in the proverbial.

Here's 2021/22 after 10 games

View attachment 233549

A better league position and points total - but the form dip already apparent. After 20:

View attachment 233551

Far too close for comfort.

What's the point I'm making?

On the face of it: we look OK, and (unless something catastrophic happens whether it point reduction or a major injury crisis) I think it will stay that was this season, despite the trend of the last couple of seasons. Ultimately, because the teams in the bottom 3 now are worse than the previous (and I can't see another 'Newcastle' happening).

But as a few others have mentioned - it's gameweek 10 - 20 which has knackered us recently : only 5 points from 10 games.

It's a low bar, but if we're on the 20 point mark after 20 games I can see us being anywhere between 7 and 12 points clear of the relegation zone - which would surely be insurmountable for the bottom 3 claw back.

Let's just have a nice comfortable mid-table obscurity finish to the season FFS.

I don't think we should use 21/22 as a comparison. We really sleepwalked into relegation and went into a proper downward spiral.

In 22/23, the fear of relegation was there from the off, and after 10 games the bottom half was so tight. On top of that, a lot of our metrics indicated we were overperforming.

This year, I think less teams will be involved in a relegation battle, and now, despite being on the same points after 10 games, our metrics indicate we have been unlucky to not get more points.

Now obviously I can't guarantee that won't all change for the worse, but in short, things do look better for me this year.
 
The table tends to 'settle down' and look a little like how it will come the end of the season. However:

Here's last season after 10 games:

View attachment 233548

Granted, a better league position than now, but only 2 points off the relegation zone and 5 points off the bottom. Here's the table after 20 games:

View attachment 233550

Proper in the proverbial.

Here's 2021/22 after 10 games

View attachment 233549

A better league position and points total - but the form dip already apparent. After 20:

View attachment 233551

Far too close for comfort.

What's the point I'm making?

On the face of it: we look OK, and (unless something catastrophic happens whether it point reduction or a major injury crisis) I think it will stay that was this season, despite the trend of the last couple of seasons. Ultimately, because the teams in the bottom 3 now are worse than the previous (and I can't see another 'Newcastle' happening).

But as a few others have mentioned - it's gameweek 10 - 20 which has knackered us recently : only 5 points from 10 games.

It's a low bar, but if we're on the 20 point mark after 20 games I can see us being anywhere between 7 and 12 points clear of the relegation zone - which would surely be insurmountable for the bottom 3 claw back.

Let's just have a nice comfortable mid-table obscurity finish to the season FFS.
So basically we haven't won any football matches during November and December for like 3 years. Not a good time to lose form in English football.

It's still very much a game at a time for us. We need to not look at fixtures lists, and not think longer term, because we will lose games we should win, and get something in some games we expect to lose.
 
It makes perfect sense. If we get 40 points then that will be with about 3-5 points to spare on the bottom 3 in all likelihood, who'll get maybe 35/36 points in 18th place.

If we get a 5 points deduction we are in massive trouble, and relegated for sure with 6-10 points taken off.

That’s not a bit to spare, that’s skin of our teeth stuff again.
 

Its a weird position to take up saying wed be alright with a points deduction, we have to scrap for every point as it is - sweating buckets until the end of Sunday.

Regardless even talking about it is validating it.
Any points deduction will relegate us, in my opinion. We have had zero margin over the last two seasons. We are demonstrably in no position to absorb such unprecedented punishment. Any points deduction is, on all known evidence, designed to relegate us. It's a spiteful act of hypocrisy by an organistion without credibility. Even if three sides are significantly worse than us this season, the very act of stripping us of points opens the floodgates to referees and VAR that Everton is fair game. It will destroy our morale and boost that of Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United. Opposition fans will seize on this - and the general atmosphere will be primed to properly relegate Everton by hook or by crook - mainly by crook - as the season continues.
 
Any points deduction will relegate us, in my opinion. We have had zero margin over the last two seasons. We are demonstrably in no position to absorb such unprecedented punishment. Any points deduction is, on all known evidence, designed to relegate us. It's a spiteful act of hypocrisy by an organistion without credibility.

Eloquently put mate and my feeling exactly. The margin of error in the past two seasons has been so narrow - the instrument if used is designed to relegate us.

We're 10 games in and i was kicking every ball, shouting at the Telly and sweating buckets after we scored at the weekend, may as well have been Palace or Bourmouth again.

We're scraping for everything.
 
Disagree about the points deduction.

This is actually the perfect season to get one because none of the promoted teams look capable of getting more than 20 points. Bournemouth aren't much better either.
 

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