Relegation 2022/23

[Tony’s Carp]

Reckon a point per game from hereonin keeps us up?

I wouldn't be confident, no. All the teams around us are going at roughly a point per game and by my calculation if everyone continued at 1PPG we would currently be 18th, level on 36 with West Ham and Leicester but behind both on GD. I wouldn't shake hands on less than 12 but the PPG under Dyche suggests that should be possible.

 

[Dario Terracotta]

Still think we’ll pick up an away victory somewhere before the end of the season which will help massively.

 

[billybeeru]

We’re too far into the season to say that any of the bottom nine teams are too good to go down or too bad to stay up. The table is just crazy. When is the last time we were this far into the season and couldn’t even pick one team that was almost certain to be relegated?

 

[Matelot]

4 wins, 4 draws, 37pts.

Survival.

That’s my prediction.

4 wins, 3 draws, 37pts.

3 wins, 3 draws, 37pts.

3 wins, 2 draws, 37pts.

 

[Sean Ashley]

What's the probability we go now mate.
Use pythagurass theorem.

I'd use a binomial Poisson distribution tbf

 

[catcherintherye]

All 9 teams are still right in trouble. I don't think anyone should be anywhere near 5%.

In the studio they were saying West Ham, Leicester are too good and too big to go down. But every single one of the nine teams is down there because they haven't been good enough and we are all in trouble on merit. It's quite plausible that no one gets safe till well into May. I don't see it being that comfortable for anyone because it's so tight.

If you're too good to go down, you're not either in, or 1 points above the relegation zone with 11 games to go. This isnt October.

 

[MisterJ]

10 wins.

 

[blue to the bone]

Watching motd here.. the amount of empty seats at St Mary's today.
Relegate them no marks

 

[Exeter_Gently]

Mentality...all about Mentality

 

[Chegsy]

A win vs Spurs would be huge. Be interesting to see the reaction to his rant today.

 

[JohnRoss23]

Why do people seem to think Wolves are safe btw?

Been wondering the same, Mike. Very overrated side imo. They are pushing for Europe along with Leeds according to some.

 

[davek]

Well we are in a much better mindset than before Dyche came in.

I don't doubt he can do this & said referees decisions ( another one today ) and the crazy games in the Prem will determine where we finish ( RS v Bournemouth, Leeds v Wolves & Soton v Spurs ).

A long way to go , but I agree anything north of 36/37 gets us safe.

I think slightly less: 35/36.

 

[JohnM]

I'd use a binomial Poisson distribution tbf

I think you are over-complicating matters here. A Guassian distribution will work just fine.

 

[PITA]

Every game is important mate , none more so than a relegation run in.

If 2 of that 4 get wins tomorrow's & we get an expected loss at Chelsea we are bottom 3 with Man Utd & Spurs next up.

This is gonna be one hell of a scrap.

Good shouts. Look, we all care but just chill and see what happens.

Who knows what will happen but whatever you think or don't think won't affect the end game. I believe that we'll survive but I'm guessing like the rest of us.

 

[blulouie]

Good shouts. Look, we all care but just chill and see what happens.

Who knows what will happen but whatever you think or don't think won't affect the end game. I believe that we'll survive but I'm guessing like the rest of us.

I'm well chilled bro.