Unlucky Managers......

[peteblue]

In today's Echo.....

By David Prentice
David Prentice: Is Moyes an unlucky manager?
7 Feb 2014 11:59
"The evidence that misfortune follows David Moyes around like dog dirt on the sole of your shoe is persuasive"

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Manchester United manager David Moyes on the touchline
David Moyes blamed Manchester United’s latest defeat, at Stoke City, on misfortune.

“We had bad luck, we really did,” he said. And it wasn’t sour grapes.

United really were unlucky (stop sniggering at the back).

But it begged the question, is Moyes a manager who is dogged by managerial misfortune?

To put it bluntly, is he an unlucky boss?

David Moyes is a good manager. That is unquestionable.

But it was Napoleon Bonaparte who famously declared: “I would rather have a general who was lucky than one who was good.”

The evidence that misfortune follows David Moyes around like dog dirt on the sole of your shoe is persuasive.

It surely wasn’t his fault that four professional footballers missed penalty kicks in a recent League Cup semi-final shoot-out. Was it?

How could he anticipate a superbly consistent centre-half passing straight to Luis Suarez while his side was leading an FA Cup semi-final?

How could he expect another six feet two inch centre-half, enjoying an outstanding season, to be outjumped by a five feet five inch winger in the last minute of a League Cup semi-final first leg at Stamford Bridge?

Or to guide his team, against all odds, to a Champions League qualifer – then draw a Spanish side good enough to reach that season’s semi-final? Not to mention a referee to inexplicably disallow a perfectly legitimate Duncan Ferguson goal with the scores locked at 1-1?

Or how about Mike Riley awarding the softest of penalties to Manchester United 12 minutes from the end of a match which would have seen his side qualify for Europe in his first full season of top flight football?

All human error. All could be considered bad luck. Or is the answer more complex than that.

Do you make your own luck in football?

Does the luck that is supposed to balance itself out over time balance itself more profoundly in your favour the more positive your decision making?

“I don’t think we deserved to lose the game,” said Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert after last Saturday’s dramatic defeat at Everton.

Maybe not, but Roberto Martinez’s bold substitutions ensured they did.

Is Martinez a lucky manager? Or does he make his own luck?

You can make your own mind up. I know which camp I’m in.

 

[canuckblue]

I believe his tendency to sit back and protect leads brought a lot of that "misfortune" onto himself.

 

[MikeH72]

You can't just cherry pick incidents from the last 12 years and try to collate them all together to prove someone has been "unlucky". If all of those incidents happened in the same season or within 2 years of each other, then that is supremely unlucky. But for them all to happen over such a long stretch of time... nah, not having it

Disclaimer: Obviously there's nothing you can do about poor refereeing decisions, i.e Collina. That actually is bad luck

 

[canuckblue]

You can't just cherry pick incidents from the last 12 years and try to collate them all together to prove someone has been "unlucky". If all of those incidents happened in the same season or within 2 years of each other, then that is supremely unlucky. But for them all to happen over such a long stretch of time... nah, not having it

Disclaimer: Obviously there's nothing you can do about poor refereeing decisions, i.e Collina. That actually is corruption on UEFA's part

Fixed.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Everyone benefits from luck to an extent because there is only so much we can ever control in life. All you can do is increase your probability of success.

 

[Tubey]

David Moyes is a good manager. That is unquestionable.

Err... No.

No such thing as bad luck - be brings the "misfortune" on to himself by being incompetent at his job. They were NOT unlucky against Stoke; rather they failed to put them on the back foot through and encouraged the opposition to come on goal and get into areas to score. Added to that, his tactics lack the fluidity to shift to fluent attack when needed to break down an opposition as his natural tendency is to sit and protect and maintain shape.

He's a poor, poor manager and everything that has happened this season was largely predicted by many, many people.

 

[Garrick]

Drawing Villareal in the 05/06 CL was definitely bad luck.

The rest? Eh... I think he has more of an impact than one would think.

 

[canuckblue]

Drawing Villareal in the 05/06 CL was definitely bad luck.

The rest? Eh... I think he has more of an impact than one would think.

I don't think luck played any part in us drawing Villarreal or the fact Collina was brought out of retirement to ref the second leg.

 

[Tubey]

I don't think luck played any part in us drawing Villarreal or the fact Collina was brought out of retirement to ref the second leg.

Yep... I'm amazed to this day that more wasn't made of this. It was blatant corruption in my eyes to limit the English entrants to the competition after the mess-up with the winners rule.

 

[caught]

You can have bad luck, but, over the the length of a season, it's rare that your fortunes are heavily imbalanced one way or the other - you'll generally find roughly as many lucky moments as unlucky ones. There will always be variables that the best managers can't eradicate, but they're the same for everyone.

Re. Moyes, I'm not sure if the examples of bad luck are convincing. A player making a terrible pass or failing to mark his man aren't really moments of bad luck but lapses in concentration, which a good manager will do everything to limit. Conceding a penalty that ultimately prevents you from qualifying for Europe might be unlucky, but there are another 37 games in a season. Having a goal disallowed is unlucky, of course, and we'll never know how big a loss we actually had that night.

Moyes has been unlucky to have Van Persie and Rooney out at the same time, but, if we're honest, he's pretty ****ing lucky to have the job in the first place.

 

[Garrick]

I don't think luck played any part in us drawing Villarreal or the fact Collina was brought out of retirement to ref the second leg.

The bad performance in that matchup was definitely not luck, but we could have been paired against some minnowish club from Cyprus or Scandinavia instead of a quality Spanish side. I'd consider that luck.

 

[Groucho]

He says at the end, "you make your own luck".

That's good and bad luck then? So he makes his own bad luck ie. is not so good anymore.

Villarreal was unlucky, like.

 

[canuckblue]

The bad performance in that matchup was definitely not luck, but we could have been paired against some minnowish club from Cyprus or Scandinavia instead of a quality Spanish side. I'd consider that luck.

Not a chance in hell that would have happened, IMO. Remember, there were five English teams in the competition that year, one more than England is usually allotted by UEFA, because of the balls-up after the Crimson Crud had won it the season before yet finished fifth in the league. So faced with getting rid of either a CL newbie in Everton or a global "brand" like Liverpool, UEFA screwed us over by giving us Villarrel and then making sure Collina completed the job.
By the way, it's not paranoia if they're really out to get you.

 

[Eric Djemba-Djemba]

I believe his tendency to sit back and protect leads brought a lot of that "misfortune" onto himself.

Sums it up nicely mate.

 

[Garrick]

Not a chance in hell that would have happened, IMO. Remember, there were five English teams in the competition that year, one more than England is usually allotted by UEFA, because of the balls-up after the Crimson Crud had won it the season before yet finished fifth in the league. So faced with getting rid of either a CL newbie in Everton or a global "brand" like Liverpool, UEFA screwed us over by giving us Villarrel and then making sure Collina completed the job.
By the way, it's not paranoia if they're really out to get you.

What are you on about? That's absolutely pure conjecture, and you come off as a paranoid madman, despite your claim otherwise.

UEFA are in no way "out to get" Everton. If anything, they just don't care about us.