Stats - how much notice do you take?

[Adam-GOTTV]

So the other day when discussing the potential of us signing Gylfi Sigurdsson on Twitter, I shared a link to a heavily statistics based post which demonstrated that in quite a few areas there was little between him and Ross...

Anyway, it provoked a mini debate about the importance of statistics. Personally, I'm a bit of a 'stats centrist'. I mean, I don't put too much emphasis on them but I do think (when presented with context) they can be useful.

I was thinking of doing a podcast on the topic and therefore wanted your thoughts?

Basically, I want to know how much notice you take of them? Do you proactively seek them out? And how much do they influence your thoughts on certain footballers?

 

[ToffeeTim]

They are really useful when they back up my agenda

 

[orly]

45 out of every 50 Weasels are just good honest Frandels who are making up some good speculative tosh

Make of THAT what you will.

 

[Bungle]

So the other day when discussing the potential of us signing Gylfi Sigurdsson on Twitter, I shared a link to a heavily statistics based post which demonstrated that in quite a few areas there was little between him and Ross...

Anyway, it provoked a mini debate about the importance of statistics. Personally, I'm a bit of a 'stats centrist'. I mean, I don't put too much emphasis on them but I do think (when presented with context) they can be useful.

I was thinking of doing a podcast on the topic and therefore wanted your thoughts?

Basically, I want to know how much notice you take of them? Do you proactively seek them out? And how much do they influence your thoughts on certain footballers?

They get used to convince us players like Barkley and Lukaku are gash when they decide to leave, but they are absolute world beaters when it looks like they're signing new contracts.

I try not to pay too much attention and judge them on what I see with my own eyes, which is mostly porn to be fair.

 

[MACCA75]

Barkleys chances created stat seems to be a favourite on here. I'm pretty sure 90% of them are 5 yard square passes to Kev who blazes a 25 yards over the bar.

I tend to go with what I see.

 

[Titus Bramble]

I like to look at team stats like number of wins/points per game etc over a long period as it can give a good indication of progress season on season. I don't normally look at individual player stats as there's far too many that can be used to make a player seem better or worse depending on your argument

 

[Tubey]

They are good barometers, but can be used whichever way you wish.

For example, you say you got stats to show not much difference between Ross and Gylfi, when I can easily do this...

To illustrate the point further, there are 71 players who created more open-play chances than Sigurdsson in the Premier League last season. That included Kevin Mirallas and three other Everton players. Ross Barkley created 54 such chances. Sigurdsson managed only 25 - the same number that Gareth Barry and Idrissa Gueye produced in fewer games.

Even from set plays, it is uncertain how much of an impact that Sigurdsson might have at Everton given that Barkley, Mirallas and Baines shared the team's set-piece duties last term, creating 51 opportunities in the process - only one fewer than Sigurdsson.

http://news.sky.com/story/gylfi-sigurdsson-to-everton-is-the-swansea-man-value-for-money-10947289

 

[arch stanton]

stats don't tell you about stuff like positional sense (i think that Ross is out of position sometimes that affects how others in the team can play/position themselves) and timing, when to make a head down run or when to play an easy percentage pass (again, I'm not sure that Ross is up to the required standard yet). There is definitely a player in Ross but he isn't there yet. Not got a clue about GS as to whether he is better than Ross in these areas stats don't cover.

 

[Berenger]

Done properly -- i.e. statistical modelling to try to prove hypotheses -- they can highlight things the eye doesn't see or the mind can't juggle. Done badly -- e.g. X has never scored on a Tuesday night in the Premier League -- they are pointless.

 

[BNJ1878]

Stats almost worked for Billy Bean and his Oajland A's.

It also shows you need that little bit more.

 

[Berenger]

But that's just an example of stats done really badly. It's more like top trumps than statistical analysis.

They are good barometers, but can be used whichever way you wish.

For example, you say you got stats to show not much difference between Ross and Gylfi, when I can easily do this...



http://news.sky.com/story/gylfi-sigurdsson-to-everton-is-the-swansea-man-value-for-money-10947289

 

[WA Toffee]

They are interesting talking points which are not meant to be taken too seriously

 

[Goat]

Some are useful, some not.

There was a clip of Rooney miss hitting a shot last season, it bounced straight to Zlatan who scored, the stats showed that Rooney got an assist, my eye told me that he spooned a ball onto Zlatans head.

 

[chrissyjack]

They get used to convince us players like Barkley and Lukaku are gash when they decide to leave, but they are absolute world beaters when it looks like they're signing new contracts.

I try not to pay too much attention and judge them on what I see with my own eyes, which is mostly porn to be fair.

So, an important "stat" to you on whether to buy a player , or not , is how well hung they are ?

 

[Tony Hibbert's 3rd leg]

They are really useful when they back up my agenda

This. To prove a point you use the statistics you want to help your argument.

I tend to look at the stats that would benefit the team's qualities or lack of. So in the instance of Sigurdsson and Barkley, Barkley's stats point to him being the more creative player, but Sigurdsson is more productive. And productivity is something Koeman has referred to time and time again.

So you look at Sigurdsson's stats regarding productivity, say goals and assists, and it's a lot higher than Barkley's.



Some stats will show Barkley superior, some Sigurdsson. But it's not a case of who has the best stats overall, but the ones that really matter to the manager.

Take last season. The stats showed there weren't enough goals shared around the team, Lukaku being the only outlet. Koeman dealt with it immediately this Summer.