Statistical analysis of the League season

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ToffeeDan

in memoriam - 1961-2023
Looking at the "contribution" of each player in the squad I took a look at the line-ups in the 37 games thus far. Adding in some values for Clean Sheets; goals and assists (increasing them for the defenders and midfielders who should score less) and deducting negative points for yellow and 2nd yellow cards. I also gave the main value to playing in a win (100) and draw (50) (nil when we lost) and adjusted this where the substitution was positive (or negative). So, basically it's a sort of contribution divided by relevant appearances (as opposed to 2 minutes off the bench):

Tim Howard 31 47.90
Joel Robles 7 40.83

Antolin Alcaraz 8 57.50
Leighton Baines 31 54.03
Phil Jagielka 36 53.43
Seamus Coleman 34 49.86
John Stones 22 48.91
Tony Hibbert 4 37.50
Sylvain Distin 12 31.82
Bryan Oviedo 6 28.33
Luke Garbutt 4 -1.67

Darron Gibson 9 75.00
James McCarthy 27 59.23
Gareth Barry 32 40.00
Muhamed Besic 22 35.88

Leon Osman 20 78.46
Steven Pienaar 9 68.75
Aaron Lennon 14 64.23
Aiden McGeady 16 56.79
Kevin Mirallas 28 56.43
Ross Barkley 28 54.60
Steven Naismith 30 49.32
Christian Atsu 5 7.50

Arouna Kone 12 67.14
Romelu Lukaku 35 56.67
Samuel Eto'o 14 39.44

Galloway and Browning excluded
The contributions of Alcaraz, Gibson, Osman and Kone are heavily weighted in the sense that they played in games we won (Osman 8-3-2 in his 12 starts and one substitution appearance relevant to the analysis). Most of the poorer performers are at the lower end of the table.
 


you did it. you cracked the code.

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Looking at the "contribution" of each player in the squad...deducting negative points for yellow and 2nd yellow cards.

Tim Howard 31 47.90

Did you deduct points for unforced errors which led to goals?

I think stat-analysis like this is over-rated. Best to look at key moments in games and which players held their nerve to perform, and which didn't.
 

Interesting. Your analysis seems to assume that every opponent is of equal merit, though. Someone could have played a blinder kicking the life out of a top of the table side and getting sent off unfairly in a narrow loss and appear far less useful than someone else who had a shocker, yet scrambled a flukey goal in a dodgy win against a disinterested mid table opponent.
 
Someone show these stats to Chelsea, sell them Alcaraz and Kone for 30 million (hey, 2 for 1 deal) and keep John Stones and Lukaku forever.
 
So according to that our best 11 (assuming a Bobby 4-2-3-1) is:

Howard
Coleman-Jags-Alcaraz-Baines
Gibson-McCarthy
Lennon-Osman-Pienaar
Kone

In the nicest way possible I hope your calculations are a bit off!
 

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