TraffordBlue
Player Valuation: £30m
Appreciate this post may be a bit long and a bit of an effort to read but thought it would be a good way of monitoring the teams around us who we should be keeping an eye on over the season. Also in danger of being a bit too RAWK with the predicted points totals, but at least I haven't manipulated it to have us finishing top of the league...
I have been having a look at previous seasons as well as the current table to see who our realistic rivals are in going for a top 6-7 finish. At the moment 6th/7th is looking like the best we can hope for, and is also a step in the right direction given our 11th placed finishes in the past 2 seasons. At the start of the season I think most would have agreed that if we got back in to Europe, then for now that would be a successful season and it's also obvious that it will give us a much better chance of persuading some of the names mentioned in the summer who probably laughed us off given where we've been recently.
Realistically I think the current top 5 are comfortably better than the rest of the league and already a gap has opened up between Spurs in 5th and United/us in 6th and 7th. Therefore I am not going to mention any of the top 5 as I don't think we will catch them.
Having looked at the table as well as considering previous seasons I think the most realistic challengers for 6th/7th this season are: Man United, Watford, Southampton, Stoke, Leicester and West Ham. Personally, given how we've been playing recently, I suspect that Man United will step up and beat us at Goodison and then a 7th placed finish will be the best we can hope for. However, that doesn't take in to account the January Transfer Window where we may strengthen in certain positions. I have left West Brom and Burnley out who may need to be considered later on in the season but I don't think either are good enough for 6th or 7th.
After 12 games, the current table has the teams mentioned on: Man United (19), Everton (19), Watford (17), Bournemouth (15), Southampton (14), Stoke (13), Leicester (12), West Ham (11).
In the past 5 seasons, the teams that have finished 6th and 7th have had points totals ranging from 62-69 (6th) and 57-64 (7th). The 69 points total from Spurs in 2013-14 was a bit of a one off, and the 57 achieved by ourselves for 7th place in 2011-12 was also a lot lower than the norm. Therefore, a reasonable estimate of the points total for 6th is about 62-64 points and for 7th is 60-62 points.
Having looked at what the teams who came 6th and 7th were on after 12 games in the past 5 seasons, the average points taken in the remaining 26 games for 6th was 45, the best was 49 and worst was 42. For 7th, the average was 41, best 46, and worst 34.
Applying that to the current table would see the following:
Man United: 6th placed form (64 average, 68 best, 61 worst), 7th placed form: (60, 65, 53)
Watford: 6th: (63, 67, 60), 7th: (59, 64, 52)
Bournemouth: 6th (60, 64, 57), 7th: (56, 61, 49)
Southampton: 6th: (59, 63, 56), 7th: (55, 60, 48)
Stoke: 6th: (58, 62, 55), 7th: (54, 59, 47)
Leicester: 6th (57, 61, 54), 7th: (53, 58, 46)
West Ham: 6th (56, 60, 53), 7th: (52, 57, 45)
So from looking at that, I think that quite a few of those teams would have to put in some extraordinary form to get to the required points total needed for a 6th placed finish. Applying the 49 points Spurs got in their remaining 26 games in 13-14 would see Stoke finish on 62, Leicester on 61 and West Ham 60 and realistically, none of them are going to do it. Which would mean that our rivals for 6th would actually most likely only be Man United and Watford because how likely is it that Southampton and Bournemouth are going to show Spurs like form and get 49 points from 78?
For 7th, 46 points is the best any team has got from their last 26 games (Liverpool in 2012-13), which again would only put Stoke on 59, Leicester on 58, and West Ham on 57. Southampton and Bournemouth would have to put together an amazing run to even get 7th now, so again Man United and Watford look like the only realistic challengers.
With us having 19 points from 36, we should be aiming for around 45/78 for 6th with 64 points, and 43/78 for 7th with 62 points.
The next month is massive for us and if we can put together a respectable amount of points before the January transfer window then we will be in a far stronger position to attract better calibre players than we were in the summer. If we want to finish 6th then the next 3 games are vital as we play Southampton away, Man United at home and Watford away. We could do with taking at least 5 points from those games.
I have been having a look at previous seasons as well as the current table to see who our realistic rivals are in going for a top 6-7 finish. At the moment 6th/7th is looking like the best we can hope for, and is also a step in the right direction given our 11th placed finishes in the past 2 seasons. At the start of the season I think most would have agreed that if we got back in to Europe, then for now that would be a successful season and it's also obvious that it will give us a much better chance of persuading some of the names mentioned in the summer who probably laughed us off given where we've been recently.
Realistically I think the current top 5 are comfortably better than the rest of the league and already a gap has opened up between Spurs in 5th and United/us in 6th and 7th. Therefore I am not going to mention any of the top 5 as I don't think we will catch them.
Having looked at the table as well as considering previous seasons I think the most realistic challengers for 6th/7th this season are: Man United, Watford, Southampton, Stoke, Leicester and West Ham. Personally, given how we've been playing recently, I suspect that Man United will step up and beat us at Goodison and then a 7th placed finish will be the best we can hope for. However, that doesn't take in to account the January Transfer Window where we may strengthen in certain positions. I have left West Brom and Burnley out who may need to be considered later on in the season but I don't think either are good enough for 6th or 7th.
After 12 games, the current table has the teams mentioned on: Man United (19), Everton (19), Watford (17), Bournemouth (15), Southampton (14), Stoke (13), Leicester (12), West Ham (11).
In the past 5 seasons, the teams that have finished 6th and 7th have had points totals ranging from 62-69 (6th) and 57-64 (7th). The 69 points total from Spurs in 2013-14 was a bit of a one off, and the 57 achieved by ourselves for 7th place in 2011-12 was also a lot lower than the norm. Therefore, a reasonable estimate of the points total for 6th is about 62-64 points and for 7th is 60-62 points.
Having looked at what the teams who came 6th and 7th were on after 12 games in the past 5 seasons, the average points taken in the remaining 26 games for 6th was 45, the best was 49 and worst was 42. For 7th, the average was 41, best 46, and worst 34.
Applying that to the current table would see the following:
Man United: 6th placed form (64 average, 68 best, 61 worst), 7th placed form: (60, 65, 53)
Watford: 6th: (63, 67, 60), 7th: (59, 64, 52)
Bournemouth: 6th (60, 64, 57), 7th: (56, 61, 49)
Southampton: 6th: (59, 63, 56), 7th: (55, 60, 48)
Stoke: 6th: (58, 62, 55), 7th: (54, 59, 47)
Leicester: 6th (57, 61, 54), 7th: (53, 58, 46)
West Ham: 6th (56, 60, 53), 7th: (52, 57, 45)
So from looking at that, I think that quite a few of those teams would have to put in some extraordinary form to get to the required points total needed for a 6th placed finish. Applying the 49 points Spurs got in their remaining 26 games in 13-14 would see Stoke finish on 62, Leicester on 61 and West Ham 60 and realistically, none of them are going to do it. Which would mean that our rivals for 6th would actually most likely only be Man United and Watford because how likely is it that Southampton and Bournemouth are going to show Spurs like form and get 49 points from 78?
For 7th, 46 points is the best any team has got from their last 26 games (Liverpool in 2012-13), which again would only put Stoke on 59, Leicester on 58, and West Ham on 57. Southampton and Bournemouth would have to put together an amazing run to even get 7th now, so again Man United and Watford look like the only realistic challengers.
With us having 19 points from 36, we should be aiming for around 45/78 for 6th with 64 points, and 43/78 for 7th with 62 points.
The next month is massive for us and if we can put together a respectable amount of points before the January transfer window then we will be in a far stronger position to attract better calibre players than we were in the summer. If we want to finish 6th then the next 3 games are vital as we play Southampton away, Man United at home and Watford away. We could do with taking at least 5 points from those games.
