Johnny_No.5
Player Valuation: £500k

WHEN I FIRST wrote about these Euros I said that England’s last game could prove as tough a challenge as any in the group and that’s how it will be. I was sure Ukraine would start the match with a chance of going through. Playing the host nation in that situation, in a jumping stadium, is quite a test.
Adding to the difficulties is that, at the back of their minds, England players will be thinking: "We only need a point." One of the most dangerous mentalities in sport is: "We only need..." Especially when your opponents are saying: "We have to..."
There’s not much Roy Hodgson can do about it. He’ll encourage his players to be positive. There is a big incentive to win because they would then probably top the group, therefore avoiding Spain. But, at the end of it, that England “only need†a draw is a fact and it’ll be in the players’ heads irrespective of Roy’s team talk.
Against Sweden there was something typically English about England. They weren’t trying to be Spain and have 500 passes in midfield. They played with energy, higher up the pitch, 4-4-2. It was a typical Premier League game with three strikes from set-pieces and another a cross and header. Some have criticised the team for their football. Well, I didn’t think England were that bad, though if you asked me, I didn’t think they were that good either.
England were expected to make the play against Sweden. They won’t have that problem versus Ukraine. Roy’s England like teams to come on to them and there are plenty of signs Ukraine will do that. One, is their need to win. Another is their coach’s mentality. When they played France I noted Oleg Blokhin reaction to going behind was to throw on more strikers — he ended the match with four of them on the pitch. That suggests a manager who goes for it. If England are clever they will let Ukraine come forward, and counter attack.
With that in mind, Wayne Rooney’s return is perfectly timed. The more I see of Danny Welbeck, the more I’m impressed. He’s a striker who can do a bit of everything and it was his job to link midfield and attack against Sweden. He did this well enough but in Wayne you’ve got one of the world’s best in that role. I expect Welbeck to keep his place and revert to playing as a No 9, with Wayne behind him. Wayne will look to play behind Ukraine’s defensive midfielder, Anatoly Tymoschuk, but in areas into which the Ukrainian central defenders won’t want to follow him.
England’s ball retention has not been brilliant but I expect Wayne to improve it — Steven Gerrard and Scott Parker need that player ahead of them to get into positions where their forward pass is easy and, because of Wayne’s understanding of the game, he’ll find those positions. And even if he’s not free he has such ability you can give him the ball and he’ll hold it despite pressure from a marker.
On the counter — when you can win the ball and give it to Wayne quickly for him to release his striker or a wide player, he is especially effective. On the right, James Milner’s defensive reliability makes him favourite to get the nod — but if Roy thinks there’ll be a lot of chances to counterattack a stretched Ukraine side, he might just go with Theo Walcott.
Was I wrong on Holland?
A team’s state of mind, levels of confidence, unity — and stress — are hard to guess from the outside. Before the tournament I fancied Holland but they could be packing their bags today. Against Denmark and Germany, Holland looked like a team of individuals and the togetherness that helped them reach the World Cup final in 2010 was gone. They were also unlucky — they had their moments versus Denmark but couldn’t take their opportunities. After that the pressure built.
Against Germany, Robin van Persie had a chance — a volley from a diagonal ball — similar to the one he converted superbly against Everton last season but put it into the goalkeeper’s hands. And maybe their line-up hasn’t been right. Bert van Marwijk has gone with his familiar starting players and kept Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and the brilliant Rafael van der Vaart as subs, when maybe he needed to try something fresh. Holland’s defence has struggled. I don’t know how much protection Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong are offering in the centre and in wide areas but it’s poor. The full-backs, Gregory van der Wiel and young Jetro Willems, are better going forward than at defending — and the wingers don’t get back to help as much as in other teams.
Why so many headed goals?
There have been a lot of goals scored in the air. Ever since Poland’s Robert Lewandowski got the first of the tournament with a beauty, the headers have been flying in. Nicklas Bendtner, Mario Gomez, Andrei Shevchenko and Pepe are just some of the players to profit and, against Sweden, Andy Carroll scored one that reminded me of Mark Hateley who, trust me, was unstoppable in the air. The high number of headed goals is surprising because it goes against trends in the Champions League and other Uefa competitions. In the last Under-19s European Championship there was not a single headed goal and in the Under-17s version, no open play goals came from headers.
So why are these finals different?
The past few years have seen everyone trying to play “Spanish†or “Barcelona†football — but now we’re maybe seeing a reaction against that. Also, as I mentioned last week, the dominant system at these Euros is 4-2-3-1 and most international teams now try to play through the middle, using extra midfield players and wingers who come in off the sides. This makes the centre of the pitch a very crowded place — and the area where you find freedom is on the flanks. There’s a coaching saying: “If you want to go through the middle, play wide; if you want to go wide, play through the middle.â€
Think about it. If you keep your wingers out on the touchlines, the opposition have to spread out — and that opens gaps in the middle for your central players to attack. On the other hand, if you flood the centre the opposition have to stay compact — meaning that if you can then switch an accurate ball to the flank, you can find one of your own players in space.
Traditionally, your No 7 or No 11 did the crossing, but at this tournament I’ve noticed the number of crosses coming from full-backs or midfield players. Few players in the world would have taken on the cross Steven Gerrard bent on to Carroll’s head but it was a supreme piece of technique.
Of course, another reason for the headed goals is the increased importance set-pieces always have at tournaments. Greece won in 2004 on a diet of them.
What, no penalties?
In the first two rounds of matches, across 16 games, not one penalty was scored and only one was awarded (missed by Greece v Poland). This has got to be a record. It’s not as if referees have been making the wrong decisions.
I feel a couple of things are happening. The fifth officials are starting to come into their own. When first introduced, they seemed to do nothing but now everyone’s used to them and they seem more empowered to help the referee. You see less holding and fouling at corners as a result — and fewer penalties given when someone goes over in the box and the ref is behind the play.
It also looks to me as if the referees, collectively, are trying to make sure they’re not “done†by players diving. If that’s what is happening it can only be good for football. Maybe it’s the start of the fightback against the cheats.
Which players have I fancied?
Germany and Spain have been the top teams and Andres Iniesta and David Silva are in mouth-watering form. They’re making key passes through defences after coming in off the sides. I like the way Xabi Alonso is playing, too — he looks as if he is strolling, dictating the games.
For Germany, the spine has been so good: Mesut Ozil, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mario Gomez, Manuel Neuer in goal, and at centre back the truly exciting talent, Mats Hummels. He’s 23 and looks like a top modern central defender who reads the game and makes good decisions about who to mark — and he can come out with the ball, in the manner of Barcelona’s Gerard Pique.
From the other nations, I’ve loved watching Andrea Pirlo roll back the years. And one of my tips to watch, Croatia’s Mario Mandzukic, is having a brilliant tournament partnering Nikica Jelavic. His teammate, Luka Modric, has also been outstanding.