johnnydawg68
Chairperson, People's Front of Saint Domingo
Posted on ESPN.com a few hours ago. Interesting. Very detailed analysis.http://www.espnfc.us/barclays-premier-league/story/2235319/keys-to-an-everton-turnaround
After an impressive fifth-place finish last season in the Premier League, all signs pointed to Everton being a contender in 2014-15. The team, which retained all of its key pieces from last season, locked up striker Romelu Lukaku to a permanent deal after the former loanee scored 15 goals last campaign, and added an attacking reinforcement in striker Samuel Eto'o and defensive depth in holding midfielder Muhamed Besic.
But things haven't gone according to plan at Goodison Park. The Merseyside club was the only Premier League team that failed to earn a point over the holidays, and it is currently in the middle of a four-game losing streak in league play. Everton is in 13th place, four points from relegation, and manager Roberto Martinez -- who was lauded last season -- is the subject of rumors that his job is in jeopardy.
Everton is down, but there are adjustments the team can make in order to turn things around. And if the Toffees' performance in Europa League play is any indication, there is plenty of quality within the team. Here is a look at how Everton can fix its current ailments, including adjustments designed to cut down on defensive mistakes and create better scoring opportunities.
More direct in possession
To put it mildly, Everton is struggling on defense. The team's 33 goals conceded so far nearly match the 39 total goals it gave up in 2013-14, and the Toffees' 11 errors leading to goals (defined as a clear mistake leading to the opposition scoring) are the most of any team in Europe's top five leagues.
These errors stem from pressure that opponents are putting on Everton's defenders, and while Martinez prefers to have his defenders possess the ball and work their way out of trouble, this level of proficiency on the ball is too taxing for the team's back line. While Everton ranks fourth in the Prem in completed defensive-half passes, opponents are able to produce more tackles and interceptions in the attacking half than they did against Everton in 2013-14, which has led to an overwhelmed back line that is also dealing with injuries and shaky individual play.
To improve defensively, Martinez can alter his possession-based philosophy and adapt a more direct style in order to take pressure off of his back line. While Martinez succeeded with a team that averaged 55.6 percent possession in 2013-14, a further emphasis on his style has seen Everton jump to 57.3 percent possession this season. This emphasis on possession is particularly true in the defensive half, where Everton is attempting 30 more passes per game compared to last season.
This begins in central defense, where incumbent starters Phil Jagielka and Sylvain Distin are both averaging more total pass attempts per 90 minutes this season but playing fewer long balls for the sake of maintaining possession. (A third option in central defense is John Stones, an impressive 20-year-old with mobility and passing chops who likely will replace Distin after the 37-year-old Frenchman -- who has increasingly looked his age this season -- suffered a groin injury in a recent FA Cup game.)
Everton can create more passing options for these central defenders with more movement in wide areas on both sides of the field. This movement already happens on the left side of the field, where left back Leighton Baines works well with attacking midfielder Ross Barkley to create space in Everton's 4-2-3-1 formation. Baines is the best in the Premier League at occupying wide channels and overlapping with attacking players, and his partnership with Barkley as an inside presence makes it easier for Everton to advance the ball up the field without getting caught in possession in its own defensive half.
Heat map of Baines' touches in 2014-15 Prem season, left, and those for Barkley.
Baines leads all Everton players in attacking-half touches and chances created, while Barkley leads the team in take-ons (defined as a play in which the player controlling the ball tries to beat a defender) and has more room to run at defenders playing as a wide midfielder who can tuck in centrally while Baines overlaps him (it can also be argued that Barkley should dart in centrally more often).
However, their combined presence creates an imbalance when Everton is looking to attack, and as opponents shift defensive responsibilities toward the left side, Everton's defenders and holding midfielders are susceptible to turnovers from a lack of passing options. Everton needs a similar attacking threat on the right side to provide balance, but is struggling to get that from the combination of right back Seamus Coleman and whichever right midfielder Martinez chooses to play in front of him. In eight of the 17 games that Martinez has used a 4-2-3-1, that right midfielder has been Aiden McGeady, and while Coleman is capable of getting forward and recording more than 50 percent of his touches in the attacking half, he tends to run into more spacing issues when McGeady is playing ahead of him.
Heat map of Coleman's touches in 2014-15 Prem season, left, and those for McGeady.
Coleman and McGeady are more likely than Baines and Barkley to get in each other's way, and again this narrows the number of options that Everton's central defenders and midfielders have when trying to keep the ball.
Ideally, Everton would have Kevin Mirallas in this wide attacking midfield role to coordinate runs with Coleman on the right and cut inside to work with central attacking midfielder Steven Naismith and Lukaku. And though Mirallas has scored five goals this season, he has had to bounce around midfield to cover for other absences within the team and has struggled to demonstrate 90 minutes of effectiveness.
Martinez has experimented with using Naismith as a right midfielder who can attack the inside channels, and while the manager has preferred to use Steven Pienaar and Eto'o on the left side of midfield, both present a threat to get behind defenders and provide Coleman with a central option when he joins the attack. Outside of the current roster, a speedy right-sided winger like Tottenham's Aaron Lennon could be an ideal transfer target, and this type of attacking outlet would go a long way in cutting down on Everton's defensive mistakes.
More attack-minded in transition
Everton's shots this season have come from an average of 21.5 yards away. That's the farthest shot distance of any Premier League team, and doesn't correlate with the fact that Everton also ranks fourth in the Premier League in attacking-third touches per game. This contrast suggests that there are inefficiencies in Everton's attack, and while the team holds plenty of possession in the attacking third, it suffers from being overly patient and is eventually forced to settle for low-percentage shots from outside the penalty area.
In order to create more dangerous chances, Everton needs to make quicker transitions into the attack when it wins the ball. This begins defensively, where Everton ranks 19th in the Premier League in interceptions per game and 15th in tackles per game. Similar to elite clubs like Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, Martinez prefers to create defensive traps for opponents using specific spacing and pressure around the field. Therefore, Everton does not record as many tackles and interceptions as most teams, and generally regains possession in its own end as a result of the opponent finally making a bad pass. Martinez must change this approach and look to produce more turnovers, because it is simply too taxing for Everton to try and methodically work its way up the field for every possession. The team needs more chances to run at a defense that is not set in its defensive shape.
Once Everton generates more turnovers, Martinez needs to put more emphasis on his players picking their heads up and looking to find an attacking player. This begins in central midfield, where this season both holding midfielders Gareth Barry and James McCarthy have made more passes per 90 minutes in a backward or square direction than last season. Barry hasn't been nearly the central presence he was last season and McCarthy has missed seven games this season with hamstring issues, so that could explain a more timid approach, but overall this patient build up not only stagnates the attack by allowing opponents to set in their defensive shape, but also puts more pressure on Everton's defenders to keep the ball and distribute in an effective manner.
Meanwhile, target striker Lukaku has improved in his ability to hold the ball and combine with his teammates this season, and the Toffees' leading scorer recently said he would like to see his team play a more direct style. Lukaku is working harder to get open and getting more overall touches on the ball, but he is also successfully making more lay-off passes to supporting midfielders at a higher completion rate. This suggests that Everton would be a better attacking team if it worked to find Lukaku as soon as it won the ball, and from there attackers like Barkley, Mirallas and Naismith would have an easier time running off of the striker and creating more opportunities in the opposing penalty area.
Outlook
It's clear that Everton is struggling to adjust to the added emphasis that Martinez is putting on possession-based football this season. While this season the Toffees are completing more passes per game and have improved their possession percentage, there are more mistakes in the defensive end and more inefficiencies in the attack. Everton can turn things around with better movement in wide positions to create more passing outlets for the team's defenders, and also with quicker attacking transitions that lead to more chances in dangerous scoring areas.
In both instances, a transfer for a slashing attacking midfielder or existing player stepping into the role could help Everton's cause; however, it is equally important that Martinez adjusts his philosophy to create a quicker, more direct buildup when Everton has the ball. If Everton can become more direct in its possession through the second half of the campaign, there is enough time to turn the season around.
ADRIAN MELVILLE
Adrian Melville joined ESPN in 2013 as a soccer Insider. He previously worked at NBC, Major League Soccer and Opta (UK). Prior to writing about the game, Melville played college soccer at Princeton and professionally for the New England Revolution and Santo Andre, a second-division club in Brazil. You can follow him on Twitter @AdrianMelville.
After an impressive fifth-place finish last season in the Premier League, all signs pointed to Everton being a contender in 2014-15. The team, which retained all of its key pieces from last season, locked up striker Romelu Lukaku to a permanent deal after the former loanee scored 15 goals last campaign, and added an attacking reinforcement in striker Samuel Eto'o and defensive depth in holding midfielder Muhamed Besic.
But things haven't gone according to plan at Goodison Park. The Merseyside club was the only Premier League team that failed to earn a point over the holidays, and it is currently in the middle of a four-game losing streak in league play. Everton is in 13th place, four points from relegation, and manager Roberto Martinez -- who was lauded last season -- is the subject of rumors that his job is in jeopardy.
Everton is down, but there are adjustments the team can make in order to turn things around. And if the Toffees' performance in Europa League play is any indication, there is plenty of quality within the team. Here is a look at how Everton can fix its current ailments, including adjustments designed to cut down on defensive mistakes and create better scoring opportunities.
More direct in possession
To put it mildly, Everton is struggling on defense. The team's 33 goals conceded so far nearly match the 39 total goals it gave up in 2013-14, and the Toffees' 11 errors leading to goals (defined as a clear mistake leading to the opposition scoring) are the most of any team in Europe's top five leagues.
These errors stem from pressure that opponents are putting on Everton's defenders, and while Martinez prefers to have his defenders possess the ball and work their way out of trouble, this level of proficiency on the ball is too taxing for the team's back line. While Everton ranks fourth in the Prem in completed defensive-half passes, opponents are able to produce more tackles and interceptions in the attacking half than they did against Everton in 2013-14, which has led to an overwhelmed back line that is also dealing with injuries and shaky individual play.
To improve defensively, Martinez can alter his possession-based philosophy and adapt a more direct style in order to take pressure off of his back line. While Martinez succeeded with a team that averaged 55.6 percent possession in 2013-14, a further emphasis on his style has seen Everton jump to 57.3 percent possession this season. This emphasis on possession is particularly true in the defensive half, where Everton is attempting 30 more passes per game compared to last season.
This begins in central defense, where incumbent starters Phil Jagielka and Sylvain Distin are both averaging more total pass attempts per 90 minutes this season but playing fewer long balls for the sake of maintaining possession. (A third option in central defense is John Stones, an impressive 20-year-old with mobility and passing chops who likely will replace Distin after the 37-year-old Frenchman -- who has increasingly looked his age this season -- suffered a groin injury in a recent FA Cup game.)
Everton can create more passing options for these central defenders with more movement in wide areas on both sides of the field. This movement already happens on the left side of the field, where left back Leighton Baines works well with attacking midfielder Ross Barkley to create space in Everton's 4-2-3-1 formation. Baines is the best in the Premier League at occupying wide channels and overlapping with attacking players, and his partnership with Barkley as an inside presence makes it easier for Everton to advance the ball up the field without getting caught in possession in its own defensive half.
Heat map of Baines' touches in 2014-15 Prem season, left, and those for Barkley.
Baines leads all Everton players in attacking-half touches and chances created, while Barkley leads the team in take-ons (defined as a play in which the player controlling the ball tries to beat a defender) and has more room to run at defenders playing as a wide midfielder who can tuck in centrally while Baines overlaps him (it can also be argued that Barkley should dart in centrally more often).
However, their combined presence creates an imbalance when Everton is looking to attack, and as opponents shift defensive responsibilities toward the left side, Everton's defenders and holding midfielders are susceptible to turnovers from a lack of passing options. Everton needs a similar attacking threat on the right side to provide balance, but is struggling to get that from the combination of right back Seamus Coleman and whichever right midfielder Martinez chooses to play in front of him. In eight of the 17 games that Martinez has used a 4-2-3-1, that right midfielder has been Aiden McGeady, and while Coleman is capable of getting forward and recording more than 50 percent of his touches in the attacking half, he tends to run into more spacing issues when McGeady is playing ahead of him.
Heat map of Coleman's touches in 2014-15 Prem season, left, and those for McGeady.
Coleman and McGeady are more likely than Baines and Barkley to get in each other's way, and again this narrows the number of options that Everton's central defenders and midfielders have when trying to keep the ball.
Ideally, Everton would have Kevin Mirallas in this wide attacking midfield role to coordinate runs with Coleman on the right and cut inside to work with central attacking midfielder Steven Naismith and Lukaku. And though Mirallas has scored five goals this season, he has had to bounce around midfield to cover for other absences within the team and has struggled to demonstrate 90 minutes of effectiveness.
Martinez has experimented with using Naismith as a right midfielder who can attack the inside channels, and while the manager has preferred to use Steven Pienaar and Eto'o on the left side of midfield, both present a threat to get behind defenders and provide Coleman with a central option when he joins the attack. Outside of the current roster, a speedy right-sided winger like Tottenham's Aaron Lennon could be an ideal transfer target, and this type of attacking outlet would go a long way in cutting down on Everton's defensive mistakes.
More attack-minded in transition
Everton's shots this season have come from an average of 21.5 yards away. That's the farthest shot distance of any Premier League team, and doesn't correlate with the fact that Everton also ranks fourth in the Premier League in attacking-third touches per game. This contrast suggests that there are inefficiencies in Everton's attack, and while the team holds plenty of possession in the attacking third, it suffers from being overly patient and is eventually forced to settle for low-percentage shots from outside the penalty area.
In order to create more dangerous chances, Everton needs to make quicker transitions into the attack when it wins the ball. This begins defensively, where Everton ranks 19th in the Premier League in interceptions per game and 15th in tackles per game. Similar to elite clubs like Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, Martinez prefers to create defensive traps for opponents using specific spacing and pressure around the field. Therefore, Everton does not record as many tackles and interceptions as most teams, and generally regains possession in its own end as a result of the opponent finally making a bad pass. Martinez must change this approach and look to produce more turnovers, because it is simply too taxing for Everton to try and methodically work its way up the field for every possession. The team needs more chances to run at a defense that is not set in its defensive shape.
Once Everton generates more turnovers, Martinez needs to put more emphasis on his players picking their heads up and looking to find an attacking player. This begins in central midfield, where this season both holding midfielders Gareth Barry and James McCarthy have made more passes per 90 minutes in a backward or square direction than last season. Barry hasn't been nearly the central presence he was last season and McCarthy has missed seven games this season with hamstring issues, so that could explain a more timid approach, but overall this patient build up not only stagnates the attack by allowing opponents to set in their defensive shape, but also puts more pressure on Everton's defenders to keep the ball and distribute in an effective manner.
Meanwhile, target striker Lukaku has improved in his ability to hold the ball and combine with his teammates this season, and the Toffees' leading scorer recently said he would like to see his team play a more direct style. Lukaku is working harder to get open and getting more overall touches on the ball, but he is also successfully making more lay-off passes to supporting midfielders at a higher completion rate. This suggests that Everton would be a better attacking team if it worked to find Lukaku as soon as it won the ball, and from there attackers like Barkley, Mirallas and Naismith would have an easier time running off of the striker and creating more opportunities in the opposing penalty area.
Outlook
It's clear that Everton is struggling to adjust to the added emphasis that Martinez is putting on possession-based football this season. While this season the Toffees are completing more passes per game and have improved their possession percentage, there are more mistakes in the defensive end and more inefficiencies in the attack. Everton can turn things around with better movement in wide positions to create more passing outlets for the team's defenders, and also with quicker attacking transitions that lead to more chances in dangerous scoring areas.
In both instances, a transfer for a slashing attacking midfielder or existing player stepping into the role could help Everton's cause; however, it is equally important that Martinez adjusts his philosophy to create a quicker, more direct buildup when Everton has the ball. If Everton can become more direct in its possession through the second half of the campaign, there is enough time to turn the season around.
ADRIAN MELVILLE
Adrian Melville joined ESPN in 2013 as a soccer Insider. He previously worked at NBC, Major League Soccer and Opta (UK). Prior to writing about the game, Melville played college soccer at Princeton and professionally for the New England Revolution and Santo Andre, a second-division club in Brazil. You can follow him on Twitter @AdrianMelville.
