Evolution of the Premier League

[bluebloodinmyveins]

Like most, im just far too lazy to read all that.

 

[Axlswhk]

Don't forget our players will age too.
In 3 years time, arteta, cahill, saha, howard, distin, yak, pienaar and phil will almost reach the end of their career. Try replacing them with 0 transfer fund.

 

[chicoazul]

Don't forget our players will age too.
In 3 years time, arteta, cahill, saha, howard, distin, yak, pienaar and phil will almost reach the end of their career. Try replacing them with 0 transfer fund.

Howard is a keeper and with a later peak, Yak and Pienaar will be on the right side of thirty (forty for Yak like).

Rodwell, Coleman, Vaughan, Anichebe, Gosling, Duffy and co might move up to the plate to take some of their positions.

Stop pushing the Kenwright angle mate, it's very transparent.

 

[Brownie]

Arteta is our special player. If we get him completely back and stay in the Europa I think we will get to the final.

 

[Number_25]

I cant see that happening, I enjoy watching 4 leagues in 1..

1 League Between 1st - 3rd
Another league Between 4th - 9th
Another one between 10th-14th

And the most interesting

The relegation league!!

 

[Axlswhk]

Howard is a keeper and with a later peak, Yak and Pienaar will be on the right side of thirty (forty for Yak like).

Rodwell, Coleman, Vaughan, Anichebe, Gosling, Duffy and co might move up to the plate to take some of their positions.

Stop pushing the Kenwright angle mate, it's very transparent.

Never had that intention mate, it's the reality we are facing. Similar to Chelsea and Utd but difference is funding.

 

[davek]

Ofcourse things will crop up. Who could have predicted City being bought out by the richest man in the world? It's more of a trend/ theory that I'm suggesting. I'm putting it out there that the mega-rich clubs can be caught and even overtaken by smaller, well-run clubs who have moulded a well-organised team over a number of seasons.

I thought that I over-analysed things until you came along! lol

Yes, but on the basis that they find themselves in all kinds of unsolvable financial difficulties. But Liverpool and United can renew themselves in short order if needed for reasons outlined; the Abramovitch line on sustainability - as Teppic implies - is good PR...probably with Uefa recommendations on debt loading being implemented in the next few years. in mind. Smoke and mirrors, they'll keep on spending. And over and above all that there's still the possibility of the queue of 'well run' clubs being jumped by others who get a City style takeover...likely given our league's recent history.

 

[billycopper]

Yes, but on the basis that they find themselves in all kinds of unsolvable financial difficulties. But Liverpool and United can renew themselves in short order if needed for reasons outlined; the Abramovitch line on sustainability - as Teppic implies - is good PR...probably with Uefa recommendations on debt loading being implemented in the next few years. in mind. Smoke and mirrors, they'll keep on spending. And over and above all that there's still the possibility of the queue of 'well run' clubs being jumped by others who get a City style takeover...likely given our league's recent history.

Liverpool are in a position where they need to sell to buy at best. They replace an Alonso with an Aquilani. Rather than cutting their losses on Babel they try to squeeze as much value as possible out of him by inflating his price. Besides Gerrard, Benayoun is probably their most creative player and yet they're willing to listen to offers for him. They're running out of assets to sell. If City come in with a bid for Gerrard and/or Torres, they're going to have to listen. A large proportion of any transfer fee would be consumed by debts rather than reinvested back into the team. They're in real trouble.

United's situation isn't much better. Under normal circumstances you'd expect them to sell Ronaldo and to reinvest a sizeable chunk of the proceeds into a player of comparable ability, but without as much hype, such as Ribery. Valencia is no substitute for arguably the world's best player. Smalling may well have potential, but I would have thought of him as a long term successor to Ferdinand rather than a replacement for Vidic.

When Abramovich took over, his stated aim was for the club to be self-sufficient within a certain timespan. He's stuck to that principle, hence why they've been shopping in the bargain basement for the last couple of seasons with signings such as Steve Sidwell. I genuinely feel that Abramovich will no longer sanction signings unless they're financially viable. Who was the last name that they bought? Malouda? Bosingwa? Their spending has dramatically slowed down since 2008.

At the time that Abramovich bought into the league, he was the wealthiest investor in the game. Masoud has since come and gazumped him. What's in it for a billionaire investor to buy Bolton or Wigan, say? They can't outspend City. Why would they pour millions into a club to be alsorans? Money in the game is simply slowing down. Without that to tip the scales, the teams who are built on more solid foundations will come out on top.

 

[Allezfan]

Liverpool are in a position where they need to sell to buy at best. They replace an Alonso with an Aquilani. Rather than cutting their losses on Babel they try to squeeze as much value as possible out of him by inflating his price. Besides Gerrard, Benayoun is probably their most creative player and yet they're willing to listen to offers for him. They're running out of assets to sell. If City come in with a bid for Gerrard and/or Torres, they're going to have to listen. A large proportion of any transfer fee would be consumed by debts rather than reinvested back into the team. They're in real trouble.

United's situation isn't much better. Under normal circumstances you'd expect them to sell Ronaldo and to reinvest a sizeable chunk of the proceeds into a player of comparable ability, but without as much hype, such as Ribery. Valencia is no substitute for arguably the world's best player. Smalling may well have potential, but I would have thought of him as a long term successor to Ferdinand rather than a replacement for Vidic.

When Abramovich took over, his stated aim was for the club to be self-sufficient within a certain timespan. He's stuck to that principle, hence why they've been shopping in the bargain basement for the last couple of seasons with signings such as Steve Sidwell. I genuinely feel that Abramovich will no longer sanction signings unless they're financially viable. Who was the last name that they bought? Malouda? Bosingwa? Their spending has dramatically slowed down since 2008.

At the time that Abramovich bought into the league, he was the wealthiest investor in the game. Masoud has since come and gazumped him. What's in it for a billionaire investor to buy Bolton or Wigan, say? They can't outspend City. Why would they pour millions into a club to be alsorans? Money in the game is simply slowing down. Without that to tip the scales, the teams who are built on more solid foundations will come out on top.

All of which assumes that the Mancs and the RS won't get new investment and frankly I don't buy that.

As for Chelsea. You not counting Anelka, Deco and Zhirkov mate?

In the last three seasons they've spent more than £90 million.

 

[zimblue]

Any talk of liverpool or man u dropping off a cliff is wishful thinking. Its the turnover of the clubs that dictates what wages they can pay, not the debt. As long as they can afford to pay the highest wages, they will always attract the best players. Sure it will put them at a disadvantage to the likes of arsenal, chelsea and man city, but debt can be managed. All it will mean is that they wont be buying global superstars.

 

[davek]

All of which assumes that the Mancs and the RS won't get new investment and frankly I don't buy that.

As for Chelsea. You not counting Anelka, Deco and Zhirkov mate?

In the last three seasons they've spent more than £90 million.

Is the correct answer.

 

[billycopper]

Zhirkov joined for an undisclosed fee. Deco was £7.9m and was 30 years old when he arrived. Anelka cost the same as Fellaini- a comparative bargain for a proven Premier League striker in his prime.

Who else have they signed in the last three seasons to average a £30m spend per season? Looking at their current squad:

Ross Turnbull-free,
Ivamovic- £8.9m (I'll give you that one),
Bosingwa- £16.2m (yep, I'll give you that too),
Belletti- undisclosed (he was 30 at the time, so hardly likely to have broken the bank),
Daniel Sturridge- out of contract,
Matic- £1.5m
Hilario- Free

Here's the squad.
Sky Sports | Football News | Premier League | Chelsea | Squad

So far I'm up to £49.5 in disclosed fees since 2007- a mere £16.5m per season. We spend more than that!!

Contrast the signings of Sidwell, Turnbull, Hilario, Pizarro, Ben Haim and even Ballack with the exorbitant transfer deals that greeted Mourinho's arrival and my point should become clear.

 

[Allezfan]

Zhirkov joined for an undisclosed fee. Deco was £7.9m and was 30 years old when he arrived. Anelka cost the same as Fellaini- a comparative bargain for a proven Premier League striker in his prime.

Who else have they signed in the last three seasons to average a £30m spend per season? Looking at their current squad:

Ross Turnbull-free,
Ivamovic- £8.9m (I'll give you that one),
Bosingwa- £16.2m (yep, I'll give you that too),
Belletti- undisclosed (he was 30 at the time, so hardly likely to have broken the bank),
Daniel Sturridge- out of contract,
Matic- £1.5m
Hilario- Free

Here's the squad.
Sky Sports | Football News | Premier League | Chelsea | Squad

So far I'm up to £49.5 in disclosed fees since 2007- a mere £16.5m per season. We spend more than that!!

Contrast the signings of Sidwell, Turnbull, Hilario, Pizarro, Ben Haim and even Ballack with the exorbitant transfer deals that greeted Mourinho's arrival and my point should become clear.

Zhirkov is rumoured to have cost £18 million, you can't ignore him just because the full amount wasn't disclosed. Add to that Di Santo for £3 million and Malouda for £13.5 million and thats £86 million. Add the kids they've been hoovering up and I'm willing to stick with my £90 million figure.

And yes, they've earned some of that in sales. They've sold Johnson, Diara, Robben, Bridge, Wright Phillips, Ben-Haim, Sidwell, Ben Sahar, Claudio Pizarro, Boulahrouz, etc, during that time and dropped a lot from their wage bill by shipping out the likes of Shevchenko and Cudicini.

But they're not skint and they can still afford to pay big fees if they want to.

6 transfers at £8 million or over in the last three years speaks for itself mate. When their current stars retire, I have no doubt they'll be replaced.

 

[billycopper]

I'm not saying that they're skint. I'm saying that they are sticking to their stated business plan and transfer policy. Whereas in 2005/6 they would have thought nothing of paying £16m for the unproven Glen Johnson, in the past couple of seasons they have been targetting free transfers (Sidwell, Ben Haim, Pizarro, Ballack etc) and players who generally represent value because of their age or any baggage that they might have (Deco, Anelka, Belletti). It's the exception for them to pay substantial transfer fees for in-demand players (Zhyrkov, Malouda) rather than the rule.

If you take this as their strongest side:

_________________Cech (27)
Ivanovic (25) Terry (29) Carvalho (31) A. Cole (29)
_________________Essien (27)
_____Ballack (33) Lampard (31) Malouda (29)
___________Anelka (30) Drogba (31)

The average age is 29.27. That's not including Bosingwa (27), Ferreira (31), Alex (27), Belletti (33), Deco (32) and Joe Cole (28).

In three years time, the timespan that I gave for the 'big four' to be superceded, only Ivanovic, Mikel, Zhirkov, Sturridge and Kalou of the current Chelsea squad will be under 30. That's 16 players to be replaced in the next 3 seasons. Even if Chelsea can find sufficient quality and Abramovich is prepared to put his hand in his pocket, that's still a huge turnover of players. Maintaing their current standards whilst overhauling the squad to such a large extent would take a miracle.