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EPL 2014-15 Previews/Predictions

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Still thinking Chelsea will win it

Arsenal will collapse around March time. Nailed on
Agreed there. Chelsea look solid.

Ramsey looks to have become key for them. I felt he was some kind of modern-day Lampard last year: knack of getting important goals but better on the ball and more mobile.
 

5. Everton; 21-9-8 Record - 61/39 GD
Manager: Roberto Martinez
Top Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku (15)


Screenshot 2014-08-12 15.13.22.webp

You don't go into your first press conference saying "I will guide you to the Champions League" unless you're a positive man. That's just what Roberto Martinez is - positive. He embodies the new ethos of a club in transition. No more Moyes, no more scraping into competition with the big boys, the progressive, positive brand of football has seemingly changed the entire club.

Lots of the side, however, didn't change. Very few additions were made, and most were promotions to new positions in first team or loan deals, with young, hungry players in the mix. This season, a sense of continuity has been felt with the signings of Gareth Barry and Romelu Lukaku on permanent deals, while the signing of Muhammed Besic hints at a want of more versatility and universality about the side. Besic is a ball playing defender, or a defensive midfielder. Brenden Galloway, brought in from progressive footballing side MK Dons, is in this mould, mixed with a feeling that the best days of Everton Football Club still lie further ahead.

The common theme of Martinez's style of play has been the width of his teams. He faced a narrow Manchester City side as Wigan manager in the FA Cup final, and pinned them back through exception width. He adapted this into this Everton team this year. Everton played with width, with flair in possession. A comparison between the positions of the full backs, Baines (3) and Coleman (23) from one year to the other, however, shows that the changes in width were already there.
Screenshot 2014-08-12 19.26.03.webp Screenshot 2014-08-12 19.27.11.webp
vs Fulham (H), 2012. vs Norwich (H), 2014

The key difference has been the speed of passing, and the range of the pitch at which slow passing and possession play was the foremost option. Under Moyes, the aim of the attack was to get the ball into the final third with quick combinations or long balls, and then the role of the attacking players in the final third was to create crossing opportunities. Under Martinez, wide players have combined to make space in the middle of the park for scoring opportunities. Also, Martinez has insisted on a four, or five man defensive square/pentagon which protects the middle of the park and rarely moves. It can be seen in the Norwich games - with the 26 (Stones)-6 (Jagielka)-18 (Barry)-16 (McCarthy) square in a rather defensive position in comparison to the CMs in the Fulham game. This should remain a feature, with the only experimentation featuring potentially a 3-5-1-1 or a 4-3-3 as trialled in pre-season.

The Problem for Everton this year is two-fold. They are reliant on the fact that Martinez has bet all his players have increased in skill and in experience. Barkley plays with the same swagger he operated with, Stones becomes the libero he promised late season. Barry doesn't decline, Pienaar also. The problem begins if players have the beginnings of bad form patches, they could struggle. Also, to not bang on about a total cliché - the Europa League could take it's toll, especially with Martinez taking a proactive approach to the tournament, by the sound of his rhetoric. This could be their Premier League downfall, but they have the quality to win the Europa League and the prize - Champions League qualification.

Player to Watch: Ross Barkley
Young Player to Watch: Luke Garbutt
Predicted Finish: 6th
 
6. Tottenham Hotspur; 21-6-11 Record - 55/51 GD
Manager: Mauricio Pochettino
Top Goalscorer: Emmanuel Adebayor (11)


Screenshot 2014-08-13 15.49.40.webp

Not enough goals, not good enough defence. A journalist, Jake Meador, described Tottenham under Redknapp as a club of "Quiet Revolutions", meaning they made small changes with a big impact, in comparison to the huge changes of Chelsea, City. They said moving Bale to Left Midfield, bringing in 18-year old Danny Rose, moving Luka Modric into the centre was the catalyst for swapping Thursday in Trømso for a Wednesday in Milan when a Welshman introduced himself to the world. Then, the days of Ramos and Jol and Hoddle had gone and an era of slow built success was made.

Then Redknapp's era ended, and AVB moved for Sherwood who moved now for Pochettino. Like an old man, wandering out on the Highway, trying to find the solution to their eternal title problems. It's surprising, given the nature of Sherwood's reign, that someone like Pochettino has got the job - given his nature as a Bielsista and a progressive forward thinking coach. Redknapp to AVB, Sherwood to Pochettino is a change in polar opposites. Wide-scale squad changes and revolutions have been often in North London.

It is, in that context, strange to see that Ben Davis and Michel Vorm are the only real additions to the squad, especially with many of the AVB (and Levy, Baldini) signings from last year underperforming that much. Adebayor seemed to be the only striker the club had towards the end, although there were promising features from Harry Kane towards the end of the season. Nadil Bentaleb had an excellent World Cup and is an excellent presser of the ball. Ryan Mason has had an excellent pre-season, and is in serious contention to play in the first game of the season, against West Ham. Eric Dier, a player familiar to us here this side of Stanley Park, is a ball-playing defender with a usefulness in a high line, playing a high line under Leonardo Jardim at Sporting CP.

Pochettino's Southampton was a direct, fast, high-pressing team. They used clever plays on the wing to attempt to win the ball high up and featuring a fluid, dynamic and physical side. From games like Schalke 04 in pre-season, it is seen that Ryan Mason, Louis Holtby, and Nadil Bentaleb press high up the field. As all are modern, excellent midfielders with good feet. Paulinho features high energy and could be crucial, especially seeking to re-establish himself after the World Cup in which he was dropped from the Brazilian team. A 4-2-1-3 has been used so far, with high wingers. Don't be surprised if the team plays in a shape that does look a little like a 4-2-4, as Eriksen, or Lamela as Eriksens pre-season has been less than impressive, will look to link with the striker. Watch out for Erik Lamela to revive his career, although don't take my suggestion too seriously if it doesn't go right.


Tottenham's problem is that AVB signed players for his system, and although Pochettino's system coalesces with that of Villas-Boas, they are not the same system. Just as Enrique and Guardiola, both disciplines of the same footballing deities, have very different ideas about who to populate their squads. AVB and Pochettino, despite from the same spawn in philosophical terms, are not the same. Furthermore, in the same height of defensive line and height of block, Tottenham conceded 6-0 to City, 5-0 to Liverpool. Can they, simply with a few academy products, that AVB was unwilling to use, thrown in, play the system that they couldn't yet 11 months ago?

Player to Watch: Erik Lamela
Young Players to Watch: Ryan Mason, Eric Dier and Nadil Bentaleb
Predicted Finish: 7th
 
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Apologies for this taking so long! Thanks for reading, guys :)
7. Manchester United; 19-7-12 Record - 64/43 GD
Manager: Louis van Gaal
Top Goalscorer: Wayne Rooney (15)


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It seems easy to look back and say "mistake, mistake, mistake" at the way Manchester United conducted their last year and the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson. It seems obvious now, that the problem was Sir Alex, and replacing him should have been done a long time ago. He was there too long, he was manipulated by his board, and he actually had a pretty poor transfer policy - over the last five seasons (three of them overseen by Ferguson) they spent more than Chelsea, Manchester City and Real Madrid.

How are the 20 times Champions so far behind? Well the signs have been apparent for a while, since 2010, they haven't beaten a former Champions League winner in a competitive game on the European Stage. That includes title winning seasons in 2013 and 2011. Since their last Champions League win, they have not even been considered as near favourites, and even with the fading and faltering British contingent at the European Stage, that is poor for a club of the gravitas of the 2013 Champions.

Well, the latest poor soul to attempt to revive the Titanic is Louis van Gaal, whose record is exception, to say the least. A Champions League with Ajax, a title with AZ Alkmaar, and a plethora of titles with Bayern, not to mention his escapades in the World Cup, have led to him being regarded as a genius - and quite right too, he is an excellent man manager and an excellent builder of legacies and teams, see Bayern and his improvements to Muller, Alaba and Schweinsteiger for more details. A second Champions League was only a moment away in Madrid in 2010, but for Jose Mourinho, the apprentice turned master.

United's squad, however, contains glaring gaps and inefficiencies that needed to be addressed this year, unfortunately for United a World Cup year where little is done, except the inflation of player values - he has added intelligently, with Ander Herrera the sort of player who will make use of the Premier Leagues space in midfield pockets to his own advantage, look forward to eye-catching, Fabregas-like passes from side to side and back to front. Luke Shaw will perhaps regret his reputation, as he faced early on the scorn of Van Gaal in a fitness issue. Marcus Rojo has taken the spend so far to £72 million reportedly, and offers the flexibility in the back line that Louis van Gaal wants. Links with Angel Di Maria and Sami Khedira (a long term Manchester United target) show that he wants to improve the team with a clear strategy of investment across the side, rather than in one area as Ferguson attempted, with mixed success (contrast Kagawa with Van Persie in effect) towards the end of his career. Van Gaal wants to leave a better squad for his successor.

Van Gaal's teams often play with width and intellect with the ball. He has a general belief that when faced with two strikers or one striker, he must have a sweeper (who has the ability to create moves from deep), and a man-marker. See in the first game against Swansea, how Blackett tracked Bony high up for the first goal, and allowed the space for players in the channel between Smalling and Lingard at CB and LWB. This is how the defence in going to have to learn in the next few weeks, one man to mark, one man to zonally defend. Smalling did not shift across, and the space was conceded immediately. Up front, Van Gaal likes to use direct dribbling and use of moving the ball to create space to work opportunities, and this will be successful, depending on the sophistication of the back-line questioned. Some will create opportunities, some won't. Van Gaal is also not be afraid of changing formation and reverting to creating opportunities to cross, with his change to a wide 4-2-1-3, which looked like a 2-2-3-3 in possession with the height of the full-backs providing width and overlaps.

Manchester United are at a crossroads, they're not yet out of it and they won't be out of it for some time. Van Gaal has stated it will take three months, and because there is no comparison between the Moyes days, which were mostly based around running, and structure and the Van Gaal days, which will be based around fluidity and movement, it's hard to say how long this change will take. What is true, is that changes will be made, and the end of the Van Gaal era will be at the cost of the mediocrity of the club as present.

Player to Watch: Darren Fletcher and Michael Carrick (both will have a new energy)
Young Players to Watch: Tyler Blackett
Predicted Finish: 4th
 

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