Cheltenham 2019. Fill Your Boots.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Overall I bet £25 on the first day got £90 odd back and by the last day having taken into account my missus' bets, I ended up with a £90 profit so ok but if I have a bad Cheltenham then I have a good National.

BRING IT ON
 

mccole said:
Overall I bet £25 on the first day got £90 odd back and by the last day having taken into account my missus' bets, I ended up with a £90 profit so ok but if I have a bad Cheltenham then I have a good National.

BRING IT ON
Click to expand...
Hope im the same
 
Got far more into Cheltenham than I wanted to, ended up with several big priced 2nd places; which meant I ended up down for the week when it could have been a great week.

I’ve booked accommodation for next years Gold Cup day, looking forward to it.
 
Got a 14-1 fourth place yesterday ew, 20 ran, not sure betfred pay out on that?. Had three winners on lucky 15 at Fakenham yesterday as well. Put fifteen quid on, and my mate worked out the winnings on betting calculator on his phone. Thirty one quid back. That’s pretty crap.
 

Gwlacticos said:
Got a 14-1 fourth place yesterday ew, 20 ran, not sure betfred pay out on that?. Had three winners on lucky 15 at Fakenham yesterday as well. Put fifteen quid on, and my mate worked out the winnings on betting calculator on his phone. Thirty one quid back. That’s pretty crap.
Click to expand...

....you should be fine with your e/w bet, first 4 if it was a handicap over 16 runners. The bookies were paying extra places in most races.

Just checked a betting slip in my pocket, do a Pricewise bet for my mate and me - £140 for 2 x £1 singles and £1ew double. The only two winners he had all week and I was lucky enough to pop them in a small stakes double.

Concentration on Aintree now, started my National portfolio months ago.
 
Eggs said:
....I always say, backing short-priced favourites is a way to the poor house but if you’re putting £10k on any horse in any race you are either silly rich or just silly.
Click to expand...

That's not really true.
The bookies' margin on short priced horses is much smaller than on big priced horses. That's to say that if you consistently bet on even money horses you'll win maybe 45-46% of the time maybe 10% less than fair price suggests, whereas if you consistently bet on 33-1 shots you'll probably win than 2% of the time vs a fair price strike rate that should be 3.33%. So generally you will lose less if you consistently bet short priced horses in the long run.

That's why the bookies always like to spin the narrative that favs winning is a result in favour of the punter and against the bookie.. in truth the fav winning is just less bad for the punter and less good for the bookie because their profit on the race will be lower than if an outsider won (remember the bookies' margin on favs is lower... but there is still a margin).

The problem for punters comes because people see short priced horses as "sure things", ie they don't respect the odds. A 1/2 odds on is a strong fav in the world of horse racing but this horse would get turned over 1 time in 3 on average, so hardly a "shock" result it gets beaten. They lump huge sums onto these horses for too little potential payoff.
Professional bettors, or at least serious bettors, always respect and bet in proportion to their bankroll... something which the casual punter has no concept of.
 
evilwebby said:
That's not really true.
The bookies' margin on short priced horses is much smaller than on big priced horses. That's to say that if you consistently bet on even money horses you'll win maybe 45-46% of the time maybe 10% less than fair price suggests, whereas if you consistently bet on 33-1 shots you'll probably win than 2% of the time vs a fair price strike rate that should be 3.33%. So generally you will lose less if you consistently bet short priced horses in the long run.

That's why the bookies always like to spin the narrative that favs winning is a result in favour of the punter and against the bookie.. in truth the fav winning is just less bad for the punter and less good for the bookie because their profit on the race will be lower than if an outsider won (remember the bookies' margin on favs is lower... but there is still a margin).

The problem for punters comes because people see short priced horses as "sure things", ie they don't respect the odds. A 1/2 odds on is a strong fav in the world of horse racing but this horse would get turned over 1 time in 3 on average, so hardly a "shock" result it gets beaten. They lump huge sums onto these horses for too little potential payoff.
Professional bettors, or at least serious bettors, always respect and bet in proportion to their bankroll... something which the casual punter has no concept of.
Click to expand...

....i’m old and i’m very sad to say i’ve seen the reality of it far too often.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Welcome

Join Grand Old Team to get involved in the Everton discussion. Signing up is quick, easy, and completely free.

Register

Shop

Back
Top