BPL 2015-16 Previews/Predictions

[HuddersfieldToffee]

10. Crystal Palace
Manager: Alan Pardew
Top Goalscorer: Glenn Murray (7)



Crystal Palace have sat themselves in the old Fulham seat at the Premier League table. They're a upward thinking, progressively recruiting London side who have a clear and defined philosophy. They have benefitted from the increase in money swirling round the England's top tier, and they've invested that money wisely, bringing in Yohan Cabaye in what could be described as the deal of the summer.

Palace have brought in Pape Souare, a energetic wing-back that will provide overlaps and counteract the slightly more reactive Joel Ward, who remains and excellent player. But the main signing, and the best signing of the window in my view is the signing of Yohan Cabaye from PSG, and excellent, cultured midfielder will provide forward running into the box, while the functional but gifted James McArthur will usually hold the line. Crystal Palace have played a reactive, counter-attacking game this season, but the situation was fairly similar to the meeting of player and manager last time, at Newcastle. As Michael Cox recalls; "When he first met Pardew, Cabaye asked his prospective manager how he wanted Newcastle to play, aware that the Magpies had been playing relatively simple football. "With you, it will change," promised Pardew. He wanted Cabaye to boss the midfield and impose a passing game." At Palace now, the situation is similar, but nearer to the state of play early in his time on Tyneside, where the attacking talents of players such as Demba Ba and Hatem Ben Arfa were paramount to the attack, and Cabaye was pitched in more of a enabling role, often a role next to a pure Half-Back, like Tiote. Although he can play behind the strikers, as he did most notably at Manchester United (A) in his final season at Newcastle, his primary position will be to use his intelligence to pick Zaha, Bolasie, and Puncheon on the swift break.

Crystal Palace have become a team prescribed with width under Pulis and now Pardew. Their primary players and attacking threats have, until Cabaye, been tricky wingers who have a turn of pace and personal skill. They focus upon allowing space for the wingers to attack into, and allowing themselves to have players, like Glenn Murray, on the end of both by-line and drilled crosses. Their back four protects the line and allows the wingers, when needed, to sit in counter-attacking positions. Patrick Bamford comes after playing in a similar system under Aitor Karanka, and offers a poaching threat but also intelligent movements. Alternatively Crystal Palace can play both a 4-4-2 where the Second Striker will normally be a further pacy player who will try and break behind the central defenders, typically Yannick Bolasie was played in this role like against Liverpool.

Palace have started the season well, with two wins. But the problem will become when sides realise that sitting deep can bring about success against the attacking talents that they have. Will Glenn Murray be able to score goals against a packed, tall, strong defence? The key player will be Yohan Cabaye, who helped Newcastle break down packed defences and can help Pardew's men do the same. Whether this is the case, will be another matter?

Player to Watch: Yohan Cabaye
Young Player to Watch: Yannick Bolasie
Key Tactical Question: Can they become more proactive without the ball?
Predicted Finish: 10th

 

[ilikecheese]

Erm...I was quite looking forward to the next preview...

 

[HuddersfieldToffee]

Erm...I was quite looking forward to the next preview...

Just thought everyone had lost interest I had a diagram ready and everything.

 

[HuddersfieldToffee]

This is a big one, and it's in two parts because it's Everton, so here's part one, covering the Watford game and the Transfers, where as part two will cover City, Tottenham, Southampton and the predictions.

11. Everton
Manager: Roberto Martinez
Top Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku (10)
Highest Whoscored Rating 2015-16: Ross Barkley 7.63/10



Last season, Everton were almost a Jekyll and Hyde style team. When the lights were on them on Thursday, they were a quick, efficient, mobile and dynamic side. At the weekend and domestically generally, they lacked a second gear and often played pedestrian football. This season, we've seen both, but the signs are generally encouraging that this Everton side are becoming a more complete attacking outfit. An analysis of their first three games, including the defeat to Manchester City, should give Everton fans more to cheer about that last seasons panel.

Everton have been reunited with crowd favourite Gerard Deulofeu, a pacey, tricky winger who offers individual skill but has often been found wanting of a final ball but suits talismanic striker, Romelu Lukaku. Funes Mori, a deadline day acquisition from River Plate, offers cover defensively and Aaron Lennon offers width and a direct running role, stretching the play horizontally, which is something Martinez wants. Tom Cleverley has been reunited with Roberto Martinez after his time with the Spaniard at Wigan, and offering an intelligent possession-recycling role, similar to that of Danny Welbeck in Roy Hodgson's 2014 England side, dropping back and deep to help draw full-backs and create overloads. His passes completed against Tottenham (A) show this in action, often prompting a reversal of play and allowing the full-back (in this case Bryan Oviedo) to take up a higher position for the second phase of play.



Game 1: Everton 2-2 Watford



Against Watford, Martinez was placed against an organised, packed 4-4-2. They played a man-orientated zonal system which cuts off the space and the compactness made things difficult for Everton, drawing too many options high up the pitch and making them vulnerable to the pace and direct strength of Deeney and Jurado, the latter dropping off to occupy the oft-used passing lane between McCarthy and Barkley. Everton responded by encouraging Barkley to occupy the half-space, the box between the central midfielders, full-backs and wide midfielders. He does this well to create overloads, a key part of Barkley's game, and an intriguing development in the last two years. He drifting particularly to the right, where Seamus Coleman was particularly influential.


Barkley would move from the Central Space and 'the hole' in the Orange zone to the Blue zone, the Half-space. Exploiting the half-space is a key feature of modern football thinking and is an often under-appreciated element.

Everton struggled though creating concrete chances and were picked off by swift counter attacks, which were well balanced to maintain a defensive third numerical advantage for Watford which made it hard on the counter-press (i.e, the Counter Attack after a Counter Attack). When Everton did have joy, was when Barkley switched roles with Mirallas and allowed a parallel left-to-right run behind the defence by Cleverley to split the defence. This kind of combination and fluidity between Mirallas, Cleverley and Barkley will be interesting throughout the year.

After the break, Everton switched to a 3-5-2-ish shape with Oviedo and Kone coming on. Kone provided a more direct running threat, as Lukaku headed long balls to control by the Ivorian. Barkley was allowed deeper recycling role in a deeper midfield 2 and was given freedom to surge into the box. McCarthy played a screening role ahead of a back three of Stones, who was allowed to drift into midfield to provide right-sided overloads, Jagielka who played most like a sweeper, and Barry, who covered a hybrid left-back/left centre back role to protect Bryan Oviedo's high positioning. This allowed more pressure on the 4-4-2 and provide overloads everywhere on the pitch.

Everton, against the newly promoted side, were not 100% on pace, but showed their flexibility in shape to bring the game back from the brink. For that, Martinez deserves some credit.

Part Two: Southampton (A), Man City (H), Spurs (A), General Outlook.

 

[HuddersfieldToffee]

Game Two: Southampton 0-3 Everton



A tremendous performance that mustn't be understated - to win at a side as good as Southampton, in such a decisive and efficient manner, is an excellent achievement. Southampton aren't the overt pressing side that they were under Pochettino, but they remain an extremely Dutch side, with an initial press before dropping into a solid position. The fact remains that had the Saints used the ball better and taken up more intelligent performances, they could have opened Everton up and tested Tim Howard, who's performance was incidentally excellent.

Everton have improved this season at integrating Romelu Lukaku into the build up play. His speed, strength and his under-appreciated lateral movement and intelligent position has become better suited to a fluid counter-attacking side, based on a mixture of pure power and counter-pressing. Think of Everton as a more physical version of the Luciano Spalletti Zenit side, who's best performance, their Zenith, if you will, was a 5-0 win against Spartak Moscow - notice how the first goal resembled Lukaku's second in the Southampton game.


Danny's movement, akin to Barkley, profits from a larger gap between defence and attack, which is caused by the third function midfielder losing footing as the side launched for an attack, this gave a gap for on-rushing attackers to exploit.

Lukaku's movement has become better, and he has become a more lateral player under Martinez's guidance. A look at his passes received in the So'ton game shows his ability to stretch the pitch, drop deep and create chances.



The concentration of passes along the left-channel were a part of his growing partnership with Arouna Kone, which was a key feature in the game. The Belgian would drop deep into the right half-space, and combine with the Ivorian, who would in turn take his position. Similarly, he would drop left into counter-attacking space when Tom Cleverley came near side and deeper to protect the defence.

With the ball, Everton differed from last years approach is the order of priorities in attack. In the Premier League last season, Martinez's side would seek to recycle the ball first, and counter as a second option. This season the roles have reversed. Everton's first phase of play against Southampton (and Tottenham) was to find a direct ball, once the options were closed, they sought to recycle possession, which they remain excellent at, completing 79% of their passes against the South Coast side, and 81% on average this season. It's allowed more options to attack with and given Martinez the ability that he had in the first season, and given greater variety in the angles of the attack.

Game Three/Four: Everton 0-2 Manchester City/Barnsley 3-5 Everton



Against Manchester City, Everton faced an irresistible attacking force who played with absolute attacking width. Also, in David Silva and Sergio Aguero, they faced the template for the relationship and understanding that Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley will seek to become over the next few years, one making space for the other and visa versa. Everton tried to find joy with the triangle of Kone-Barkley-Lukaku, while Cleverley provided his usual covering position from Right Midfield. City used their excellent left side to create openings, as well as the threat of Silva, who was being marked by Gareth Barry.

Everton were often stretched but created some chances, and probably should have come away with a goal. But realistically, this game doesn't particularly teach us anything new about the Everton side, who's indecision in the final third cost them. Kevin Mirallas, who was an unused substitute in the City game, suffers from a common feature amongst the Everton creative players, lack of a correct final ball in the latter phases of a counter attack or play. Lennon, Deulofeu and even Ross Barkley all suffer from a similar ailment in their game. This is why Martinez sought an attacking midfielder, someone with a little bit more composure in the final third. Barkley will have to step up until Christmas at least, and showed little sparks of brilliance in the final third against City.

This was shown in a much more open game, the League Cup tie against Barnsley, an energetic and surprisingly tactically aware side. When he came on, and in extra time, the powerful combinations between Lukaku, Deulofeu and Barkley were excellent, and the last goal, and Everton's fifth of the night, was a perfect example of Everton's altered approach, a swift counter-attack powered by the direct running of Lukaku and Barkley, who has added penetration in the final third to his game.

Game Five: Tottenham 0-0 Everton



This game represented a true test of how far Everton have come under Roberto Martinez's 2015/16 vintage and 2014/15. A game against a fellow continental rival, and a game that Everton have traditionally dominated, but disappointed after 90 minutes. In this game, Martinez once again went for a 4-2-3-1, with Cleverley repeating his 'false winger' role and Barkley, Kone and Lukaku aiming to combine on the counter-attack.

Everton played with a mid-line height but were caught too high a few times, most noticeably for Harry Kane's one-on-one with Tim Howard, who has been excellent in parts this season. Everton were improved in their directness but cracks appeared in the double-pivot of Barry and McCarthy, as Barry was caught out a few times and McCarthy does not seem able to provide a sole-holding role. The development of Mo Besic, therefore will be of particular interest to Toffees, as the Bosnian has shown glimpses of being the powerful, defensive minded midfield distributor, who can drop into a back three when required.

Conclusion

Everton in the first four games have shown improvement on last season, playing with a renewed intensity and flexibility. The feeling remains that despite not being Roberto Martinez's favoured approach, the Counter and Counter-Press remains Everton's best approach to win games. A high pressure and high tempo game, as opposed to a possession, low tempo game. It suits nearly all the Everton players and the challenge then, it seems, remains to try and develop Everton with the ball. Games like the Watford game, and the change to a more lateral system, stretching a packed low block. Paying attention to a side like Borussia Dortmund, who's manager, Thomas Tuchel, is currently emphasising ball movement in his opening game. If Everton can retain their quick countering ability, and break down sides with the ball, they'll be a real challenger for the top echelons of the Premier League. If not, they'll suffer from a new problem, as well as old problems - a lack of second gear against bigger sides, and a lack of intelligent ball movement against smaller sides. The early signs says the former is progressing excellently, but the latter has some way to go.

Player to Watch: Ross Barkley
Young Player to Watch: Ty Browning
Key Tactical Question: What will be Everton's default approach, Counter-Press or Possession?
Predicted Finish: 6th

 

[HuddersfieldToffee]

12. Crystal Palace
Manager: Slaven Bilic
Top Goalscorer 2015/16: Kouyatè/Noble (2)
Highest Whoscored Rating 2015/16: Cheikhou Kouyatè (7.32/10)



What the hell is 'the West Ham way'? They certainly aren't a ball playing side, they certainly aren't a speedy side and they aren't a pressing side. Over the past four years, they've been a long-ball side that's dabbled with creativity. This season they're managed by a top level manager with an questionable tactical acumen. He's achieved success in Croatia and Besiktas, but undoubtedly has been pretty disappointing everywhere else.

West Ham made a supreme statement signing Dimirti Payet, the assist king from Bielsa's OM side who played a cracking brand of football last term, which was partnered by his former coach being linked with the Irons. His direct dribbling creates space in a similar way to Ross Barkley, often dangerous but frustrating in possession, he's taken up a direct left sided role in the first few games. Pedro Obiang is a more cultured defensive midfielder but remains exactly that. As Jonathan Wilson noted, half-backs, the deepest of a midfield three, can generally be divided into two camps, defenders who can play a playmaking role, and playmakers who can defend. The Spaniard is very much the former. Ogbonna, a centre back who once had a big future during his time at Torino, is a decent signing but in the game against Bournemouth, he was taken off early in the game. He's a physical, relatively quick defender who can dribble with the ball and is a decent passer. Lanzini is a strange one, a player who's on loan from Qatari club Al Jazira, who combines well with right sided partners Kouyate and Carl Jenkinson

In stark contrast to Crystal Palace, who play with tremendous width, compactness and narrowness are the two words that can be associated with the more successful games this season for West Ham. In the game against Bournemouth, they played a formation approaching a 4-1-3-1-1, with Nolan hovering behind Diafra Sahko. Nolan's been ditched and it seems like Manuel Lanzini will play behind the striker, and drifts laterally on the counter-attack to combine with Payet. Sakho is an excellent finisher, and can move into the channels and stretch the play. In the games against Arsenal and Liverpool, two excellent victories, they played a mixture of a narrow 4-3-2-1 and a 4-1-4-1 without the ball, this was designed to suck space and deny opportunities to ball players. Their transitions are shaky at the moment, with their lack of an excellent ball-player and players in the half-back role being more defensive players, Reece Oxford, considered a defender by most, playing there against Arsenal and Obiang against Liverpool, not exactly metronomic players, but more of a Matic style half-back-plus. The full-backs offer overlapping runs and counteract the narrowness of the front six.

West Ham will, undoubtedly, struggle to break down sides that are worse than them. They're a scrappy, not overly technical team with good individual talent, like Dimitri Payet and Mark Noble, but they'll be uncomfortable in a game that they'll dominate. Most importantly though for Hammers fans, they do however look a more motivated and driven team to succeed. Fans are happier, Bilic shows passion and also, there won't be the burden of Europa League. They'll have a few good results but you feel they'll be better against teams that'll dominate them, which could hold them back from the upper echelons of the table. Expect passion, expect some good games, but don't expect too much from West Ham United.

Player to Watch: Dimitri Payet
Young Player to Watch: Reece Oxford
Key Tactical Question: Who will dictate the play?
Predicted Finish: 16th