Bookies odds and the Scottish referendum

[Black Belt Jones]

See a lot of commentary at the mo on the Scottish referendum vote getting tight - talk of 50/50 being bandied about. The bookies currently have yes at 3/1, no at 1/4 (gie or take).

Seems a long, long way from 50:50 to me, but then I'm not a gambling man so don't really know the game. How do these prices correlate with reality?
There must be some equationing between what the bookies think will happen, what they want you to think will happen, and where the weight of actual money is. Is this all apparent to the seasoned punter?

 

[Tramps_mate]

I was NEA at first, but after talking to some complete mug Yes voters.. I hope the do bloody vote Yes, they will be royally up the creek with out a paddle then!

 

[Tramps_mate]

See a lot of commentary at the mo on the Scottish referendum vote getting tight - talk of 50/50 being bandied about. The bookies currently have yes at 3/1, no at 1/4 (gie or take).

Seems a long, long way from 50:50 to me, but then I'm not a gambling man so don't really know the game. How do these prices correlate with reality?
There must be some equationing between what the bookies think will happen, what they want you to think will happen, and where the weight of actual money is. Is this all apparent to the seasoned punter?

Previous opinion polls, were at like 60 no 40 yes. latest one was like 53 no 47 yes or something..