Being more direct is the way to go?

davek · January 10, 2015

The argument has been we need to stop playing it about at the back so much and get it forward more quickly. We've done that today and in the cup and it's being pointed to as the reason we stopped the rot. However, this lot seems to contradict that view and suggests that playing more patiently across the back serves us better in terms of games won.

Passes in defensive third - 2014/15:

Win
Draw
Loss

v Leicester (A) 124
v Arsenal (H) 106
v Chelsea (H) 96
v WBA (A) 132
v Palace (H) 100
v Liverpool (A) 70
v United (A) 94
v Villa (H) 158
v Burnley (A) 164
v Swansea (H) 80
v Sunderland (A) 65
v West Ham (H) 78
v Spurs (A) 120
v Hull (H) 121
v City (A) 88
v QPR (H) 100
v Southampton (A) 45
v Stoke (H) 99
v Newcastle (A) 60
v Hull (A) 66
v City (H) 52

Average defensive third passes in games won = 126
Average defensive third passes in games drawn= 103
Average defensive third passes in games lost = 85

Thoughts?

Aar_the_Toffees · January 10, 2015

i dont quite understand. The more we pass in our defensive end the more we win- or the more we pass in their defensive end we win?

Philw · January 10, 2015

To do a full analysis you'd have to compare for overall number of passes and take into account quality of opposition as well.

Also I don't think that passes in your defensive third/own half are necessarily a bad thing. It's just a case of why they're being made? If it's moving the ball quickly side to side or in and out to move the opposition about and find an angle of attack that's fine. If it's just aimless half assed sideways passes or being 'forced' back to the keeper, then that's a different story...

Edit: It would also be interesting to see how many passes are made in the middle third when the oppo has all 11 players behind the ball. I think this would have a closer correlation to the phenomenon you are talking about.

davek · January 10, 2015

Aar_the_Toffees said:
i dont quite understand. The more we pass in our defensive end the more we win- or the more we pass in their defensive end we win?

In ours.

davek · January 10, 2015

Philw said:
To do a full analysis you'd have to compare for overall number of passes and take into account quality of opposition as well.

Also I don't think that passes in your defensive third/own half are necessarily a bad thing. It's just a case of why they're being made? If it's moving the ball quickly side to side or in and out to move the opposition about and find an angle of attack that's fine. If it's just aimless half assed sideways passes or being 'forced' back to the keeper, then that's a different story...

That's true, but as a rule of thumb it does place a question mark at least over the current dominant theory that we're 'titting about with it at the back too much'.

ilikecheese · January 10, 2015

Could be skewed also in that when winning, a team is likely going to have more passes in the defensive end.

The Equaliser · January 10, 2015

Initial thought is that we have less average defensive passes in games lost as we would be mostly on the back foot in those games and if the opposition are dominating in our half there would be less space to pass it about.

Robocop · January 10, 2015

But it's not a fixed game where if you pass the ball around a certain amount with succession you get results. Anything can happen, you take your chances or you don't, you catch the opposition of guard, a defender makes a mistake, someone is caught napping, someone plays a great ball which splits the defence, it's played by humans where anything whatsoever can happen. I'm not one for stats and stuff, yes they are facts of what happened in the game but you have to score goals and defend. That's the game. Make sense?

Philw · January 10, 2015

davek said:
That's true, but as a rule of thumb it does place a question mark at least over the current dominant theory that we're 'titting about with it too much'.

Yes, I just edited my post to address that!

tommye · January 10, 2015

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davek · January 10, 2015

tommye said:
View attachment 6000

lol

It is unique.

L4Everton · January 10, 2015

davek said:
Thoughts?

You'll try anything, lies, deceit and or deflection to try to validate your point. Preach to your choir, and let the rest of us get on with it.

So far as passing and what not, enough legs in the forward positions and those players showing for a pass does two things, it backs some of the oppo's midfield off (allowing ours that bit of time to make a pass) and allows our defence to get it to our midfielders (thereby avoiding the dreaded 'tit about at the back because finding midfield is difficult and going long is a no no'.)

I am coming round to another evaluation on RM though, but the EL needs to kick back in before I go casting aspersions.

davek · January 10, 2015

The Equaliser said:
Initial thought is that we have less average defensive passes in games lost as we would be mostly on the back foot in those games and if the opposition are dominating in our half there would be less space to pass it about.

I dont know if that's the case, but the orthodoxy on us is that we dominate possession even in a game when a team puts on an intense press...in fact, that's been THE criticism of us - so it must be true?

davek · January 10, 2015

L4Everton said:
You'll try anything, lies, deceit and or deflection to try to validate your point. Preach to your choir, and let the rest of us get on with it.

So far as passing and what not, enough legs in the forward positions and those players showing for a pass does two things, it backs some of the oppo's midfield off (allowing ours that bit of time to make a pass) and allows our defence to get it to our midfielders (thereby avoiding the dreaded 'tit about at the back because finding midfield is difficult and going long is a no no'.)

I am coming round to another evaluation on RM though, but the EL needs to kick back in before I go casting aspersions.

Ha Ha Ha....yes, and now I'm trying facts...

Unreal.