From a football tipster on betfair.
Some pretty startling facts here.
A lot in it though
Information is key in any form of betting. The perfect punter - if there is such a person - uses as much of it as he or she can gather, and will only place a bet when the information they have leads to what they perceive to be a value punt.
In the long run, the above described punter will always make a profit.
Currently debating whether to stick a fiver on a nag in a three-runner heavy ground Handicap Chase at Bangor without even glancing at the form book means I'm a million miles from being described as the perfect punter. But if I'd have stuck to wagering on only football matches involving Everton this season then I'd be pretty damn close.
That's because the Toffees are often under-priced based on their ability, undoubtedly as a result of Ronald Koeman's men occupying a place in the top seven in the table since the season began.
But this is where information can be absolutely key. Fresh in the memory to a lot of punters will be Everton taking 13 points from a possible 15 at the start of the season, and their current lofty position. But study the Toffees' results more carefully and it becomes obvious why they are often a must-lay bet.
Everton can beat the strugglers...
On September 12 last year Everton beat Chelsea 3-1 at Goodison Park. This was a Blues side that, although starting the season in woeful form and going on to spend many weeks in the bottom half of the table, are recognised as one of the Premier League's 'big six' along with Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, and Tottenham.
Since that win Everton have played 45 league games, winning just 14 of those matches. That in itself isn't exactly jaw-dropping when talking about a side many believe can challenge for a top six finish (available to back at 5.60), or top eight at worst.
But it's the calibre of teams that Everton defeated in that time that is startling. Below is a list of all 14 Premier League victories they have achieved since beating Chelsea, and the league position of the opposition at the time.
West Brom - 14th
Sunderland - 19th
Aston Villa - 20th
Newcastle - 17th
Newcastle - 18th
Stoke - 10th
Aston Villa - 20th
Bournemouth - 14th
Norwich - 19th
West Brom - N/A*
Stoke - N/A*
Sunderland - 19th
Middlesbrough - 11th
West Ham - 16th
*only one and two games respectively had been played at the time of these matches
Not a single 'big six' team in sight, and just one of those 14 victories came against a club in the top half of the table. And that was Stoke in 10th!
Arguably even more eyecatching is the fact that of Everton's last nines wins of last season, five came against clubs that would be relegated and another came against a Sunderland side that were in the bottom three a huge chunk of the campaign.
In other words, the Toffees have been quite ruthless at disposing of the worst teams in the division in the last 15 months, but against the other dozen or so top flight clubs they've been pretty woeful.
But they can't beat the big guns...
Against the 'big six' in the Premier League, Everton' record is quite damning.
Koeman's men have failed to win any of their last 12 meetings against a 'big six' club, and of their last 28 such matches (stretching back to the 2013/14 season) they've won just two, a record that is akin to a club fighting to avoid relegation.
In fact there is no better example to use of a perennial struggler than Sunderland.
The Black Cats have been relegation cannon fodder for the last three seasons, and look like being so again this campaign. Yet in the same time that Everton have won just twice against 'big six' clubs, David Moye's men have won four such matches and collected two more points than the Toffees.
It makes sense then that, when Everton are 1.70 shots away to a mid-table side, it really should pay to lay them regularly. Granted, they won't be that price often in such matches but they were at Burnley recently, and they lost. They were strong favourites at Bournemouth, and they lost.
Even at Goodison Park, given that Everton have recorded just one win since September 2015 against a club placed 11th or higher in the table (at the time of playing), then laying them makes sense.
So what now...
Koeman takes his Everton side to his old stomping ground on Sunday afternoon to face a Southampton team currently sitting 11th in the table. Statistically speaking, the Saints are a bottom half side so the Toffees should have a chance of repeating last season's impressive win, for which they can be backed at 3.90 to do so.
But whatever the outcome you sense that this is a massive few weeks for Everton. They're at a crossroads.
Given their results in the last 15 months one of two things was always going to happen under Koeman. Either Everton would improve and they'd start picking up more wins against the big boys, or they'd stop beating the clubs they'd regularly defeat and start to drop down the table.
At present, the latter is happening. Everton have won just one of their last seven league games. Failure to beat Chelsea and Man City was the norm, but not beating bottom-half clubs Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, and Swansea went against the grain.
Everton remain seventh in the tale after Saturday's results but it's starting to become bunched. After Sunday's game against Southampton they face three 'big six' clubs in four games. Continue their current trend of failing to win such matches and they'll quickly become a bottom-half side.
And with their recent poor form against the calibre of clubs that they usually defeat, then laying Everton at 1.20 for a Top 10 Finish is a bet that I simply can't fail to have. I may not be the perfect punter, but hopefully I'm far from being a mug one either... touch wood!
Some pretty startling facts here.
A lot in it though
Information is key in any form of betting. The perfect punter - if there is such a person - uses as much of it as he or she can gather, and will only place a bet when the information they have leads to what they perceive to be a value punt.
In the long run, the above described punter will always make a profit.
Currently debating whether to stick a fiver on a nag in a three-runner heavy ground Handicap Chase at Bangor without even glancing at the form book means I'm a million miles from being described as the perfect punter. But if I'd have stuck to wagering on only football matches involving Everton this season then I'd be pretty damn close.
That's because the Toffees are often under-priced based on their ability, undoubtedly as a result of Ronald Koeman's men occupying a place in the top seven in the table since the season began.
But this is where information can be absolutely key. Fresh in the memory to a lot of punters will be Everton taking 13 points from a possible 15 at the start of the season, and their current lofty position. But study the Toffees' results more carefully and it becomes obvious why they are often a must-lay bet.
Everton can beat the strugglers...
On September 12 last year Everton beat Chelsea 3-1 at Goodison Park. This was a Blues side that, although starting the season in woeful form and going on to spend many weeks in the bottom half of the table, are recognised as one of the Premier League's 'big six' along with Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, and Tottenham.
Since that win Everton have played 45 league games, winning just 14 of those matches. That in itself isn't exactly jaw-dropping when talking about a side many believe can challenge for a top six finish (available to back at 5.60), or top eight at worst.
But it's the calibre of teams that Everton defeated in that time that is startling. Below is a list of all 14 Premier League victories they have achieved since beating Chelsea, and the league position of the opposition at the time.
West Brom - 14th
Sunderland - 19th
Aston Villa - 20th
Newcastle - 17th
Newcastle - 18th
Stoke - 10th
Aston Villa - 20th
Bournemouth - 14th
Norwich - 19th
West Brom - N/A*
Stoke - N/A*
Sunderland - 19th
Middlesbrough - 11th
West Ham - 16th
*only one and two games respectively had been played at the time of these matches
Not a single 'big six' team in sight, and just one of those 14 victories came against a club in the top half of the table. And that was Stoke in 10th!
Arguably even more eyecatching is the fact that of Everton's last nines wins of last season, five came against clubs that would be relegated and another came against a Sunderland side that were in the bottom three a huge chunk of the campaign.
In other words, the Toffees have been quite ruthless at disposing of the worst teams in the division in the last 15 months, but against the other dozen or so top flight clubs they've been pretty woeful.
But they can't beat the big guns...
Against the 'big six' in the Premier League, Everton' record is quite damning.
Koeman's men have failed to win any of their last 12 meetings against a 'big six' club, and of their last 28 such matches (stretching back to the 2013/14 season) they've won just two, a record that is akin to a club fighting to avoid relegation.
In fact there is no better example to use of a perennial struggler than Sunderland.
The Black Cats have been relegation cannon fodder for the last three seasons, and look like being so again this campaign. Yet in the same time that Everton have won just twice against 'big six' clubs, David Moye's men have won four such matches and collected two more points than the Toffees.
It makes sense then that, when Everton are 1.70 shots away to a mid-table side, it really should pay to lay them regularly. Granted, they won't be that price often in such matches but they were at Burnley recently, and they lost. They were strong favourites at Bournemouth, and they lost.
Even at Goodison Park, given that Everton have recorded just one win since September 2015 against a club placed 11th or higher in the table (at the time of playing), then laying them makes sense.
So what now...
Koeman takes his Everton side to his old stomping ground on Sunday afternoon to face a Southampton team currently sitting 11th in the table. Statistically speaking, the Saints are a bottom half side so the Toffees should have a chance of repeating last season's impressive win, for which they can be backed at 3.90 to do so.
But whatever the outcome you sense that this is a massive few weeks for Everton. They're at a crossroads.
Given their results in the last 15 months one of two things was always going to happen under Koeman. Either Everton would improve and they'd start picking up more wins against the big boys, or they'd stop beating the clubs they'd regularly defeat and start to drop down the table.
At present, the latter is happening. Everton have won just one of their last seven league games. Failure to beat Chelsea and Man City was the norm, but not beating bottom-half clubs Bournemouth, Burnley, Crystal Palace, and Swansea went against the grain.
Everton remain seventh in the tale after Saturday's results but it's starting to become bunched. After Sunday's game against Southampton they face three 'big six' clubs in four games. Continue their current trend of failing to win such matches and they'll quickly become a bottom-half side.
And with their recent poor form against the calibre of clubs that they usually defeat, then laying Everton at 1.20 for a Top 10 Finish is a bet that I simply can't fail to have. I may not be the perfect punter, but hopefully I'm far from being a mug one either... touch wood!
