Crystal Palace Ballot Results

[Cjplennon]

Everton were a bit slow here! Should have tested the water with a FB GOLD m'ship of say £200 adult £100 child for first day release where you were allocated random seats in a ballot BUT guaranteed a seat. As YOU say, generates even more money for the club and pays players more for a bigger breakfast!

I sense some sarcasm. But anyway a good idea. There will always be some folk willing to pay obscene levels to jump qs, ballots and get the best in life. The club should extract the value.
In any case I think they already sort of do this with the premium tickets where you can pay £200 for a ticket that you can get for £60 in the ballot.

 

[oohaahmickmadar]

Surely the software should have something in it which favours people who haven't been successful so far? If it's just a random ballot for everyone each individual game you could have a scenario where someone gets 0/19 and someone else gets 19/19 despite both paying the £60 membership, doesn't seem right at all that.

Over the season:

The probability of getting 0 out of 19 is microscopic, less than a 10th of a percent probably, one in thousands area.
The probability of getting 19/19 is to all intents and purposes, nil. Zero.
You should expect something like 5-7 games if the figures bandied about are right (6-7k avail in the ballot, up to 20k looking each time, high demand and low demand games balance out)

That's why its quite good to have to polls on here for success rates, the sample is small but quite a useful representation of whats happening overall..


In the first four ballots, if the per-game probabilities were about 1 in 3, 1 in 3, 3 in 5, and 1 in 3, here's how the overall hit rate probabilities would fall:

0/4: 12%
1/4: 36%
2/4: 36%
3/4: 14%
4/4: 2%

Someone going 4/4 is definitely very lucky so far. Quite a few will have gone 0 from 4, that is 1 in 8 chance, and luck will change.

My guess for mildly improving your chances:
- Enter as a single
- Uppers, not lowers (until everyone thinks this!)
- Dont tick the "refuse alternatives" box
- Monday nights, midweeks


My intuition and the law probably means there is no penalty for going for a senior or junior vs an Adult ticket

 

[Blue Neon]

I sense some sarcasm. But anyway a good idea. There will always be some folk willing to pay obscene levels to jump qs, ballots and get the best in life. The club should extract the value.
In any case I think they already sort of do this with the premium tickets where you can pay £200 for a ticket that you can get for £60 in the ballot.

Am skittin! But agree with what your saying. But many fans act like "Sheep" and then moan. Many fans won't be rinsed with m'ship ripoff's when prices increase again next year and when the ST reaches around £1000 in East and West.

 

[jaybx1878]

Over the season:

The probability of getting 0 out of 19 is microscopic, less than a 10th of a percent probably, one in thousands area.
The probability of getting 19/19 is to all intents and purposes, nil. Zero.
You should expect something like 5-7 games if the figures bandied about are right (6-7k avail in the ballot, up to 20k looking each time, high demand and low demand games balance out)

That's why its quite good to have to polls on here for success rates, the sample is small but quite a useful representation of whats happening overall..


In the first four ballots, if the per-game probabilities were about 1 in 3, 1 in 3, 3 in 5, and 1 in 3, here's how the overall hit rate probabilities would fall:

0/4: 12%
1/4: 36%
2/4: 36%
3/4: 14%
4/4: 2%

Someone going 4/4 is definitely very lucky so far. Quite a few will have gone 0 from 4, that is 1 in 8 chance, and luck will change.

My guess for mildly improving your chances:
- Enter as a single
- Uppers, not lowers (until everyone thinks this!)
- Dont tick the "refuse alternatives" box
- Monday nights, midweeks


My intuition and the law probably means there is no penalty for going for a senior or junior vs an Adult ticket

Do the probabilities not reset if every match is treated as a single event for the ballot? Like on a roulette wheel, each spin is an individual event not affected by the previous one so it is possible to get black 19 times in a row.

 

[oohaahmickmadar]

Do the probabilities not reset if every match is treated as a single event for the ballot? Like on a roulette wheel, each spin is an individual event not affected by the previous one so it is possible to get black 19 times in a row.

Well, yes, if you've had 18 blacks, the probability of the next spin is 50/50 to get the 19th black.

but at the start of the season, the probability of rolling 19 blacks over the course of the season is incredibly low

But if you mean, for someone who is 0 for 4 so far, do they have a better chance in the next ballot, than someone who is 4 for 4.......the answer is no (unless the club are doing something to restore the balance, which I very much doubt as it complicates matters significantly). The chance is highly likely the same and they have been unlucky so far.

It would still be very very hard to be unlucky the next 15 times. if your fail rate expectation per ballot is 2/3 or 67%, it would be a 500/1 shot not to see a single game, roughly, which is now worse than the thousands to 1 shot at the start of the season as you've already had 4 misses. but still remote.

 

[jaybx1878]

Well, yes, if you've had 18 blacks, the probability of the next spin is 50/50 to get the 19th black.

but at the start of the season, the probability of rolling 19 blacks over the course of the season is incredibly low

But if you mean, for someone who is 0 for 4 so far, do they have a better chance in the next ballot, than someone who is 4 for 4.......the answer is no (unless the club are doing something to restore the balance, which I very much doubt as it complicates matters significantly)

That's my point, the club should do something to improve the chances of the 0/4 person to ensure a little fairness imo

 

[oohaahmickmadar]

That's my point, the club should do something to improve the chances of the 0/4 person to ensure a little fairness imo

I get it.
I doubt it will happen. It is a serious complication of a randomised process week on week.
Perhaps they could say, if you apply to all 19 and don't get, say, at least 4 over the season, you get your FB+ money back.
That is low cost insurance for them and slightly good PR.
I would rather they gave info on the number tickets sold in the ballot, and the number of ballot applications made, as those who have gone 0 for 4 or 4 for 4 could quantify how lucky they were, and judge whether to do FB+ in future seasons


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[Jacko93]

I sense some sarcasm. But anyway a good idea. There will always be some folk willing to pay obscene levels to jump qs, ballots and get the best in life. The club should extract the value.
In any case I think they already sort of do this with the premium tickets where you can pay £200 for a ticket that you can get for £60 in the ballot.

If your willing to pay that much, just fill the Seat Unique seats.

Edit: just re-read that and realised thats exactly what you were saying in your last bit.

 

[Cjplennon]

If your willing to pay that much, just fill the Seat Unique seats.

That's what I'm referring to in terms of premium tickets. Seat unique is circa £200 for a standard seat in the north stand that would be £60 through the ballot for the similar area.

 

[Cjplennon]

That's what I'm referring to in terms of premium tickets. Seat unique is circa £200 for a standard seat in the north stand that would be £60 through the ballot for the similar area.

Sometimes a little cheaper Tottenham game is £150.

 

[Timbucktoo]

That's what I'm referring to in terms of premium tickets. Seat unique is circa £200 for a standard seat in the north stand that would be £60 through the ballot for the similar area.

Good to see that all the changes to get tickets going all digital is helping the fight against ticket touting is working to stop fans being fleeced.

 

[Cjplennon]

Good to see that all the changes to get tickets going all digital is helping the fight against ticket touting is working to stop fans being fleeced.

Unfortunately in this modern age fans are there to be fleeced. Sad reflection of the type of capitalism that had developed over the past decades.
At least Everton have done a few £18.78 tickets but not heard of anyone who's managed to get one yet so I'll assume there is a handful and its just a token to make it look like we care when actually we don't.

 

[Cjplennon]

Good to see that all the changes to get tickets going all digital is helping the fight against ticket touting is working to stop fans being fleeced.

Also the only thing the club doesn't like about touting is that they don't get the money. They dont care about us!!
The proof is in the pudding with all the dynamic pricing that has started. The original ticket sellers want to maximise profits.
I mean if you handed out all the tickets for £20 after somehow working out who genuine fans were and not bots the secondary market would start incredibly quickly! In my view the clubs are trying to price out the touts with face value and historical touting prices narrowing massively.

 

[Vaughan]

Are people ticking the family stand box even if not applying for a family ticket?

 

[Vaughan]

I sense some sarcasm. But anyway a good idea. There will always be some folk willing to pay obscene levels to jump qs, ballots and get the best in life. The club should extract the value.
In any case I think they already sort of do this with the premium tickets where you can pay £200 for a ticket that you can get for £60 in the ballot.

No they shouldn’t, we don’t want a stadium fall of middle class people and tourists. We want working class/low wage fans to be able to access the match. It will be obscene when they are eventually priced out of going except for the odd treat

And for what? The club is rolling in it with investment and to deals and sponsorship. Making the tickets 70 quid over 50 won’t do anything except further line the coffers of shareholders