Cycling thread


Vingegaard should be able to mount a day or two attacking in the higher climbs to come given the men he has around him like Yates and Jorgenson.

Not over this race just yet.
 
davek said:
Vingegaard should be able to mount a day or two attacking in the higher climbs to come given the men he has around him like Yates and Jorgenson.

Not over this race just yet.
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Since the start of 2024, when Pogacar has clearly gone up a level, the head-to-head between him and Vingegaard reads 32 v 9, and only one of those from Vingegaard saw him win the stage. By contrast, Pogacar has won 13 stages.
 

Bruce Wayne said:
Since the start of 2024, when Pogacar has clearly gone up a level, the head-to-head between him and Vingegaard reads 32 v 9, and only one of those from Vingegaard saw him win the stage. By contrast, Pogacar has won 13 stages.
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The only relevant stat is TdF wins.
 
davek said:
UAE are no match overall for Visma. Period.
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Based on what though Dave? The Giro was a perfectly staged smash and grab, but up to the Finestre you wouldn't have said JV were doing that well at all. Similarly, in the races between then and now, they haven't been able to lay a glove on Pogacar. In the Tour thus far, WvA has been largely anonymous, Kuss seems a way off his best, Jorgensen is a steady diesel of a rider but not really someone Pogacar will fear, while Yates can be great when the stars align, but also have terrible days when they don't.

It's not really how he rides, but the reality is that Pogacar can just follow Vingegaard around France and he wins. JV can send people up the road all they want, but until Vingegaard manages to drop him, it's all a bit pointless.
 
Bruce Wayne said:
Based on what though Dave? The Giro was a perfectly staged smash and grab, but up to the Finestre you wouldn't have said JV were doing that well at all. Similarly, in the races between then and now, they haven't been able to lay a glove on Pogacar. In the Tour thus far, WvA has been largely anonymous, Kuss seems a way off his best, Jorgensen is a steady diesel of a rider but not really someone Pogacar will fear, while Yates can be great when the stars align, but also have terrible days when they don't.

It's not really how he rides, but the reality is that Pogacar can just follow Vingegaard around France and he wins. JV can send people up the road all they want, but until Vingegaard manages to drop him, it's all a bit pointless.
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It's true that in the end its about Vingegaar mounting attacks on Pogacar. But there's historical precedent for it to happen and be successful. 2022 and 2023 they took Pogacar apart. In 2022 on the Col Du Granon they had WvA, Roglic and Laporte one-twoing him on the Col Du Galibier first and distancing Pogacar from his UAE team mates for the final ascent.

Obviously there's no Roglic this time, but Visma are peaking with Yates taking a mountain top win and Jorgenson and Campenaerts have kept Jonas in touching distance of Pogacar on his more favoured terrain in the first week. Oh, and UAE are weakened with Almeida gone and Sivakov not able to step up yesterday: even the UAE sports director has said it's a concern how weak they look when Visma put pressure on - as they did yesterday.

Of course, Pogacar is a stronger rider than 3 years ago and that's why we all expect him to withstand attacks from Visma in the next two weeks or even extend his lead. However, there's got to be mental scar tissue on Pogacar after what happened in 2022 and 2023. That cant be discounted as a possible factor.

It'll bring the best out of Pogacar for sure.
 

davek said:
It's true that in the end its about Vingegaar mounting attacks on Pogacar. But there's historical precedent for it to happen and be successful. 2022 and 2023 they took Pogacar apart. In 2022 on the Col Du Granon they had WvA, Roglic and Laporte one-twoing him on the Col Du Galibier first and distancing Pogacar from his UAE team mates for the final ascent.

Obviously there's no Roglic this time, but Visma are peaking with Yates taking a mountain top win and Jorgenson and Campenaerts have kept Jonas in touching distance of Pogacar on his more favoured terrain in the first week. Oh, and UAE are weakened with Almeida gone and Sivakov not able to step up yesterday: even the UAE sports director has said it's a concern how weak they look when Visma put pressure on - as they did yesterday.

Of course, Pogacar is a stronger rider than 3 years ago and that's why we all expect him to withstand attacks from Visma in the next two weeks or even extend his lead. However, there's got to be mental scar tissue on Pogacar after what happened in 2022 and 2023. That cant be discounted as a possible factor.

It'll bring the best out of Pogacar for sure.
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Almeida is a loss, for sure, but they still have pretty much the Dauphine squad left, which did the job perfectly well there. I suppose we'll see on Thursday, if JV manage to shred the field over the Soulor and have numbers left on Hautucam. The climb has history for extra-terrestrial racing, so you'd equally not be surprised if Pogacar doesn't blitz up it at 7wkg.
 
Bruce Wayne said:
Almeida is a loss, for sure, but they still have pretty much the Dauphine squad left, which did the job perfectly well there. I suppose we'll see on Thursday, if JV manage to shred the field over the Soulor and have numbers left on Hautucam. The climb has history for extra-terrestrial racing, so you'd equally not be surprised if Pogacar doesn't blitz up it at 7wkg.
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Who knows when the attack(s) will come. Most of us are assuming it'll be soon and in the Pyrenees, but it could come in the Alps.

Vingegaar said yesterday he's noticed a big difference between his ability to hold onto Pogacar's surges better than he was able to in the Dauphine (although there I also thought in one or two late stages Vingeagaar was letting Pogacar get so far in front and then seeing if he could hold the deficit and close it by the end of the stage).

The Visma plan for tackling Pogacar will have been made from the end of the 2024 TdF. The TT losses last week was a blow, but I do get the impression they believe they can isolate him again in the high category climbs to come and mount a fierce series of attack on him. At that stage we'll see the true greatness of Pogacar (or not, whatever the case may be).
 
davek said:
Who knows when the attack(s) will come. Most of us are assuming it'll be soon and in the Pyrenees, but it could come in the Alps.

Vingegaar said yesterday he's noticed a big difference between his ability to hold onto Pogacar's surges better than he was able to in the Dauphine (although there I also thought in one or two late stages Vingeagaar was letting Pogacar get so far in front and then seeing if he could hold the deficit and close it by the end of the stage).

The Visma plan for tackling Pogacar will have been made from the end of the 2024 TdF. The TT losses last week was a blow, but I do get the impression they believe they can isolate him again in the high category climbs to come and mount a fierce series of attack on him. At that stage we'll see the true greatness of Pogacar (or not, whatever the case may be).
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With not much before it, you'd expect the Soulor to be ridden at a ferocious pace. We'll see what the shake out is from that. They're probably doing the harder side of the Soulor, but it's also a fair descent down to the foot of the Hautucam, so plenty of time for people to get back on, assuming the gaps aren't huge at the top.
 
They can try and isolate Pog as much as they want, i'm not sure what difference it will make. None of the Visma Doms are anywhere near as strong.

the 22 & 23 races bear no relevance at all. Pog lost one from arrogance and idiocy really. And he was injured the other one.

Almeida is a loss but UAE are still super strong
 

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