The Westphalian Order Is Dead
Let’s be honest: the Westphalian order is dead. The idea that every state has equal sovereignty and a right to be left alone — that dream from 1648 — doesn’t hold up anymore. We pretend it does, but look around. Sovereignty is now optional, depending on who you are and who’s watching. Some borders are sacred. Others are suggestions.
Power overrules law. That’s the reality. The rules-based international order sounds good in speeches, but when the powerful break those rules, who actually stops them? Russia invades Ukraine. Israel bombs Gaza. China eyes Taiwan. The UN talks. The ICC tries. But in the end, might still makes right. If you're strong enough, the law bends — or breaks.
What we’re seeing is a shift back to brute-force geopolitics. A world where diplomacy is just theatre, and real influence comes from armies, trade leverage, and propaganda machines. Alliances are fragile, trust is rare, and smaller nations are stuck choosing between superpowers who act like the rules don’t apply to them.
This isn’t just a phase. It feels like a return — to something older, colder, and a lot more dangerous. The idea that nations can coexist through mutual respect? That’s fading. Fast. And unless we admit that, we’re not going to be ready for what comes next.