Recent content by LeedsW5

Yeah, but the data is drawn from aggregating shot success across the Top 5 Leagues. So for every Harry Kane you have a Vincent Janssen. The short answer is that better players will (in general) exceed their xG more, but that even they don't do that consistently and are just as likely to...

It is, no denying that, but there's no consistent performance of finishing by any player. In the last few seasons Salah, Vardy, Firmino, Aguero, Sanchez, Alli, Mane and de Bruyne have all gone from overshooting to undershooting and back again, most with a stop at 'about right' where they hit...

Try it and see where that gets you. If you're getting this riled up from an explanation of xG then you must be about 10. So finishing is a really statistically interesting part of the game, in that you can't find a rhyme of reason to it. We think of some players 'good finishers', but there's...

It's a fairly well-used statistical model based on aggregating the quality of chances a team generates / concedes and their probability of scoring from each of them. So to give an example, Ebere Eze banging a fk in off the bar from 30 yards looks great, but 9 times out of 10 it'll miss. A...

I'd go back and watch the Palace game mate. Two deflections and a worldie freekick for them, VAR wrongly ruling out a goal for us. They went in 3-1 up at HT having created 0.32xG. They took their chances and put away some very low-probability opportunities. They did not 'smash' us. We've...

8 games fewer this year than last. Think we'll be fine.

And tbf 'Screams championship' just means 'I've not heard of these players'. Ayling's been the best RB in the Championship since 2016, Klich is one of the top creators in the division. Then we've got internationals from Germany (Koch), Spain (Llorente, Rodrigo, Hernandez), and England...

I don't think we've been 'found out' - Arsenal have the 2nd best defence in the division and spent most of the game (even before Pepe's Red) with every man behind the ball. 3 World Class saves from Leno and 3 post hits are just bad luck, not that the system isn't working. I think we'll be...

Last weekend's game was only the 3rd 0-0 we've had under Bielsa. August 2018 at home v a Tony Pulis Middlesbrough and October 2019 away v Sheffield Wednesday. Former due to Pulisball of 'get a free kick, send up the 6'6'' CBs, lump it in', latter due to both keepers having world-class games...

I think an exact list is pretty difficult to write. Probably high 2nd tier? So Leeds, Newcastle, Everton, Aston Villa. Until a few years ago I'd have put Spurs in that group. All clubs that should be competing for honours, and would be targeting a Cup win if European qualification weren't the...

Scored his free kick and did naff all else? Dallas had him well under control when we played QPR last season. Palace game just a write off - when the other side gets that many slices of luck you've got to think it's just not your day.

Phillips is our usual DM but he's not the most athletic player. For someone slower who relies on trickery (like Grealish when he was playing 10 for Villa) sure. Against someone faster, usually Dallas. Also means that when he does win the ball back deep, he's in the right (central) channel to...

I’ve seen nobody who genuinely thought that. Many who thought we’d finish comfortably mid table, and the results against City and Villa were encouraging. Vast majority happy with survival, and think we’ll do so comfortably.

Hi Guys, Leeds fan here. Nice to see you're so confident against us - mood on our side is that we're also pretty confident so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. I think the two results before Arsenal distorted how a lot of people were seeing us. Leicester we got beat fair and...