Space and stuff

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Dylan said:
BMD does work. Though we haven't used it in anger. Things have to be pretty darn bad for that.......

But so far of the 49 tests, 40 have been successful. Its not a be all end all at this point, but its getting there - for better or for worse (look up AEGIS BMD using the SM-2ER, SM-3 and SM-6 missiles) I was stationed in Hawaii when the X-Band BMD radar was there undergoing maintenance. Crazy bit of kit that!

Supposedly the threat of MAD deters the crazies.

Traditional ballistic missiles never achieve orbit and generally have pre-planned multiple targets for the MIRVs. A missile in LEO has much more freedom, as it isn't on a ballistic arc, but will still be constrained to targets along its orbital path, as the energy required to make even significant changes to the orbit is very high, and as we haven't figured out a way to significantly change orbit paths (not altitudes) we have to assume the Chinese haven't either, based on their current inventory of rockets and orbital vehicles
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Here is preview of what Foreign Policy writes on this topic:

Over the weekend, the Financial Times reported that in August, China tested a new hypersonic weapons system that circled the globe. While the word “hypersonic” has gotten all the attention, what is more interesting is that the weapon entered orbit. This is no mere hypersonic system but what Cold Warriors called an “orbital bombardment system.” People are freaking out, with some calling it a “Sputnik moment.”

But just what is this thing, and how bad is it? Well, it’s an FOBS—a fractional orbital bombardment system. It’s not new. The Soviet Union deployed a similar system during the Cold War. But China’s test of such a system is unwelcome news, not because it’s some fantastic futuristic technology but because it is yet another step in a pointless, costly, and dangerous arms race.
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Dylan said:
Aside from the actual capabilities of the missile, its getting politically muddy due to one thing

MAD

Mutually Assured Destruction - That absolutely wonderful policy that guarantee's a nuclear war can never happen.

With the fall of the USSR the US has stepped up its BMD efforts, which is one thing that it gave up during the cold war, to ensure MAD continued. Being the US and USSR (and by extension Russia) are signatories on all the START/SALT treaties, etc.......we were restricted in things like number of launchers, warheads, platforms etc.

So when the US came up with the 'Star Wars' and BMD programs, it meant the thread of MAD wouldn't apply to them, and we would go bonkers on the world and that scared the Sovs. So, in a wonderful show of compassion, both sides agreed to give each other concessions to ensure there wasn't a massive escalation. So the US gave up BMD and Star Wars (or SDI i think it was called) and the Soviets gave up their hypersonic missiles.

Soviets go away, Russia becomes a shell of its previous self and China is left as a rising power with a fledgling nuclear weapon program. The US resume BMD, and now we have several successful tests of it.......our system shooting down decaying orbit satellites and test ballistic devices launched from Vandenberg successfully.

In a sense, the Chinese arsenal is useless.....obsolete before its even made. Keeping in mind they aren't signatories to any of these nuke treaties, they went back to something that could get through the defences being put up to the US.

Hypersonic missiles.

It remains to be seen if the US BMD would be able to deal with a hypersonic threat that potentially doesn't have much warning, but i think a lot of this is media doing its best to make money. With the way the Chinese is modernizing their Air Force and Navy, i don't see why they wouldn't be making the same strides in nuclear weapon delivery technologies.

But the TL;DR version is

Media sensation......remains to be seen the effectiveness of this new weapon system.
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Is Bramley Moore Dock going to be destroyed when the missiles fly?

Classic Everton that, building a stadium that will be destroyed by missiles or an asteroid strike.
 

I wonder if humans will still be around in 100 years to witness the completion of this mission, because the way we continue managing the planet and using its resources doesn't seem too wise or long lasting.

Screenshot_20211026-162526.webp

 

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