Match Thread Everton v Leeds United - Preview, Match Report and MotM Poll

[UptheTofees]

This all feels a lot like the U.S elections.

We are not scoring or winning but you know, xg proves we are the rightful PL champions.

 

[Joey66]

I`ve just been messaged by two of our older members, who`ve just woken up from their mid morning nap @Joey66 (91)yrs and @Methuselah (88 yrs)

They have no idea what you`re talking about and they find it very hard to stay awake at the best of times, without having to read all this xG bollocks.

Can you please start posting in plain English for them, otherwise they may never wake up from the next boredom induced coma that you put them into.

Thanks in advance x

66 in January an official OAP - chasing around after my OAP pension pot ATM like Platting sawdust......

 

[maccavennie]

Try it and see where that gets you. If you're getting this riled up from an explanation of xG then you must be about 10.


So finishing is a really statistically interesting part of the game, in that you can't find a rhyme of reason to it. We think of some players 'good finishers', but there's little underlying that. A player like Kane will go from overshooting to undershooting his xG season-to-season. Salah, Firmino and Jesus all undershot their xG last season, while Danny Ings massively overshot his. Bamford has gone from undershooting his xG in the EFL by 9 goals last season to overshooting it by 1.5 in the PL this.

A more sound analysis is that if a team is generating good chances and not finishing them this is either due to a. bad luck, which will right itself long term, b. having a game plan that creates a large aggregate xG but few high-xG chances (e.g. taking loads of pot-shots from 30yards) or having chances funneled towards a player who is unsuited to the gameplan or of significantly lower quality from the rest of the team.

Similarly with teams underpforming their xG conceded, this will usually show poor performance from a keeper (e.g. Matt Ryan is having a stinker at Brighton so far) but will also be a luck element if opponents are finishing low-probability chances. There's also a stylistic element to the game - Leeds defend by having the ball and committing men forward to pen the opponent back. However, when that breaks down with men committed forward it will usually result in concession of a high-xG chance.

Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality.
Open your eyes, look up the skies and see.

 

[Blues Harp]

I`ve just been messaged by two of our older members, who`ve just woken up from their mid morning nap @Joey66 (91)yrs and @Methuselah (88 yrs)

They have no idea what you`re talking about and they find it very hard to stay awake at the best of times, without having to read all this xG bollocks.

Can you please start posting in plain English for them, otherwise they may never wake up from the next boredom induced coma that you put them into.

Thanks in advance x

I agree with you there mate

 

[LeedsW5]

Surely, though, if the means of calculating xG involves the probability of them finishing their chances, and historical data is used in that calculation, then all strikers are bound to over/underperform slightly on a rotating basis as more data accumulates? Unless they have a mad purple patch or their form drops off a cliff in a very short space of time.

It's all a bit self-fulfilling.

It's also muck.

Yeah, but the data is drawn from aggregating shot success across the Top 5 Leagues. So for every Harry Kane you have a Vincent Janssen.

The short answer is that better players will (in general) exceed their xG more, but that even they don't do that consistently and are just as likely to undershoot xG as to overshoot it. So a team undershooting their xG may have a problem with finishing chances at that point in time, but unless there's a player-specific problem you'd expect it to even our (as per the law of averages) over a season.

From that we can see that Spurs' good run is at the moment contingent on Son finishing every chance he gets, as Kane is only shooting at his xG. If Son hits a bad run then Spurs will immediately start dropping points as they don't have the creativity margin of chances created to afford to miss those.

 

[Methuselah]

Thank you

To clarify this post, would just point out that 'royalblue66' is not only older than Joey but also even older than me! Probably the oldest on the forum?

 

[Bungle]

Yeah, but the data is drawn from aggregating shot success across the Top 5 Leagues. So for every Harry Kane you have a Vincent Janssen.

The short answer is that better players will (in general) exceed their xG more, but that even they don't do that consistently and are just as likely to undershoot xG as to overshoot it. So a team undershooting their xG may have a problem with finishing chances at that point in time, but unless there's a player-specific problem you'd expect it to even our (as per the law of averages) over a season.

From that we can see that Spurs' good run is at the moment contingent on Son finishing every chance he gets, as Kane is only shooting at his xG. If Son hits a bad run then Spurs will immediately start dropping points as they don't have the creativity margin of chances created to afford to miss those.

ASL?

 

[COYBL25]

Yeah, but the data is drawn from aggregating shot success across the Top 5 Leagues. So for every Harry Kane you have a Vincent Janssen.

The short answer is that better players will (in general) exceed their xG more, but that even they don't do that consistently and are just as likely to undershoot xG as to overshoot it. So a team undershooting their xG may have a problem with finishing chances at that point in time, but unless there's a player-specific problem you'd expect it to even our (as per the law of averages) over a season.

From that we can see that Spurs' good run is at the moment contingent on Son finishing every chance he gets, as Kane is only shooting at his xG. If Son hits a bad run then Spurs will immediately start dropping points as they don't have the creativity margin of chances created to afford to miss those.

 

[Methuselah]

Sorry this is off thread (and I might even have posted it before, somewhere) but when I played for Leeds United Colts the guy who ran the Colts team was an ex first team player by the name of Harry Derbyshire. We had an important game and Mr Derbyshire told us that Raich Carter was going to give us a pre-match talk. Now Raich Carter was a very 'dapper' man. Silver haired, wore a smart camel hair overcoat with a velvet collar and white scarf. We waited with bated breath for the occasion. We were all changed and ready for battle when the big man arrived. He strode in, stopped, looked around and said 'I don't want to see any sliding tackles today. You play football on your feet not on your arse'. He turned, and was gone. I guess he couldn't have heard of this xG crap.

 

[catcherintherye]

I think your right, we ‘should’ be winning these games, I think we will. But we’re not beating anyone comfortably. Leeds are a fair bit better than the terrible Fulham side we struggled to beat.

Fulham losy 4-3 against Leeds away from home. We are at home, so I suspect we will be fine.

 

[catcherintherye]

And tbf 'Screams championship' just means 'I've not heard of these players'.

Ayling's been the best RB in the Championship since 2016, Klich is one of the top creators in the division. Then we've got internationals from Germany (Koch), Spain (Llorente, Rodrigo, Hernandez), and England (Phillips) plus a keeper the French are demanding gets picked for the senior side.

We'll be fine this year and add a good amount of quality next year, which Blades have markedly failed to do.

No it means your players are not very good. Did you see Kock for Germany the other night? He was completely exposed and completely out of his depth.

Klich is what? James Rodriguez is one of the top creators, he's levels ahead of Klich who is nowhere near that level.

You will be performing miraculously to still be in the league in 2 years mate. If you are, then you can begin a rebuilt and start looking to slowly push up the league.

As I've said, there's not a single player in your team who would get anywhere near our 11.

As a final aside, you will not be getting great upgrades, just as Sheffield didn't. The reality is, nobody of any quality will ever want to go to a club akin to Leeds these days. You will buy more poor players, andlike Sheffield it will probably catch up with you. You're riding a wave currently, but are a championship club and will be back down there again soon.

 

[Joey66]

Fulham losy 4-3 against Leeds away from home. We are at home, so I suspect we will be fine.

Have you seen the speed Leeds play at Mina best not be playing......

 

[catcherintherye]

Dude, Everton wont get relegated, this season or next season or the season after, are you smoking something or what team do you even support? The bookies have Everton for ridiculous odds for relegation, like they always do and the bookies are almost always right...right? - in fact Everton are favourites for the top 6 by many

Some 'fans' here do seem to have blinkers on - voting for Mina and others in match day squads etc. My thoughts are Everton are not far from a top 6 spot however they need additional reinforcements as they have far too much dead wood - of which I have mentioned about 1000 times by now. I think we have 5 maybe 6 players a top 6 side would play - if we add to that then top 6 and beyond is very doable

The only way they will get relegated is if they play Mina and his kids and family in the team and Mina's gran in goal and Da as gaffer

I was talking about Leeds.

 

[Cool_Blue]

Like nearly everybody, I hate Leeds, but I’ve been fairly impressed with them considering how many second-rate players they seem to have. Take Bamford, you just know he’ll score against us, whereas he couldn’t hit a cows arse with a banjo most of the time.

 

[Joey66]

Like nearly everybody, I hate Leeds, but I’ve been fairly impressed with them considering how many second-rate players they seem to have. Take Bamford, you just know he’ll score against us, whereas he couldn’t hit a cows arse with a banjo most of the time.

Missed two sitters at the pit ....in a 4-3 defeat - Leeds are fast - they are inconsistent - but it's Everton that - we are posting about......
Carlo will definitely have to get this team selection right this time......