Relegation

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Our one saving grace is history shows we just don't do relegation but as Henry Ford once said "history is bunkum ..... and stinks of cat and armadillo cack NOW GET OUT OF MY MODEL T" ..... bit precious about his own motor was the narky old get
 
i think 17th is a possibility but the 3 teams below us right now are going down

Reasons why bottom 3 go down & reasons why the might improve....

Watford cant score goals - Have missed returning Deeney all season, new striker just got off the mark, might kick on & Welbeck close to fitness
Southampton home form - Have managed to scramble a lucky win & get monkey of their back
Norwich being generally wild - Injury crisis softening & 4 points from last two games

I have no doubt, as happens every season, at least one of them will kick on & improve dramatically.
 
Think December decides our season. If we can get points from the decent clubs in the division that'll raise confidence. Right now I don't see us getting a point until boxing day and that means we'll probably be 18th or 19th at new year.
Even if we dont get many points from the tough games in December, after December we don't have to play those games again and again through to season's end.... thing is it 38 games every season no matter which month they come in.
 

Even if we dont get many points from the tough games in December, after December we don't have to play those games again and again through to season's end.... thing is it 38 games every season no matter which month they come in.
Yes but come January the teams around us will have picked up points and we'll have probably at most 3 more than now. We'll have an uphill struggle to outperform the worst clubs in this league and stay up. Your statement is fine if the table looks like it is now but we could be something ridiculous like 9 points from safety by January.
 
Even if we dont get many points from the tough games in December, after December we don't have to play those games again and again through to season's end.... thing is it 38 games every season no matter which month they come in.
Begone, you sensible swine!

Agree at the start of the season.

Not now though, we've fudged the 'easier' games at home.
 

xG gets a lot of stick on here (and with some justification) but it’s somewhat interesting that if you put the table together using that metric, we “should” be 7th rather than 17th.

Now obviously woulda shoulda coulda, but it does somewhat imply that there’s a LOT of short term negative variance (what some people call “bad luck”) involved in our current situation.

The problem is that a full season is really nowhere near enough for such variance to even out (despite the popular “it all evens out over the season” shout). Maybe it does in something like baseball where they play like 180 games in a season, but not in football.

this means we need to do something to force a change, andmost often, changing the manager is the quickest, cheapest way to do that.

oh, and so far as that xG-based table goes, no prizes for guessing who is currently the most points (13) ahead of where they “should” be...
Can you explain xG because I haven't got a clue how it works.
 

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