Well argued mate, I can't disagree with much of what you have said, only to say that my instinct remains the same.
Nonetheless, I would certainly love it to happen.
There's a few different ways it can all be looked at, and depending on that slant, it produces a completely different feeling to the chances and likelihood of it happening.
From a pure business POV it can be argued that 'why would he do it', or the difficulty entailed in trying to offload his Arsenal stake in order to free him to invest/own us. just looked at in those terms then both sides can argue back and forth with mixed results on who is 'right' or 'wrong'.
Can be looked at from a pure - Moshiri/Usmanov relationship in the past angle, which then makes it seem much more likely, - well they have always done thigns together, why wouldnt they now etc,
My own take is a lot of the time we are forgetting what in reality owning a football club means to someone like Usmanov - who is 100% a sport and football nut, he's made numerous charitable donations to sports organisations and basically funded the entire Russian fencing program out his own pocket - due to a love for that sport as well, when he was in charge of Gazrom they embarked on a massive excersise of Sporting involvement, owning Zenit, sponsoring several other teams both at home and abroad, the guy honetsly loves the game. People overlook this and see him as someone who is content now to sit twiddling his thumbs owning shares with no control, power or say are overlooking the fact that he loves the game.
Now why does a Oligarch such as him get involved in the first place - heard stuff abotu money laundering etc, which in Abramovic case had a element of truth and a lot of fabrication attached to it, the safety of having a high profile was a more valid reason in that example, Usmanov is a different type altogether - he wasn't one of the land grabbers who got rich quick in the post soviet collapse (although it helped him) and a hutge ammount of his money has been made through other investements - google etc, and through legitimate investment in companies such as Megafon.
He is wanting to control a club because it's a passion and dream that he 'and' Moshiri have seemingly shared for at least 10 years - it's hard for us normal people who basically live day to day financially in some caes to comprehend the vast amount of wealth he has, and the fact that buying a football club and throwing millions into it, is like one of us buying a ps4 and our investment being buying games when we fancy them, that in essence what the money is to him, leisure money to induldge something he has a passion for and enjoys. For ten years he's been stuck in a suituation that he can't do what he wants and has no hope of ever doing so - IF we are led to believe it is Moshiri acting alone, then Usmanovs closest advisor and friend decided after consulting with Usmanov (which he had to do to agree the shares selling etc in R&W holdings) to go it alone and leave Usmanov to endure the never ending frustration of his situation at Arsenal.
That to me doesn't sit right at all, why would Usmanov all of a sudden have a change of heart about his long held dream - which staying permanently at Arsenal with no power would be?
Why would Usmanov ignore the advice of Moshiri about them both leaving Arsenal and buying another club - which with a million degree of certainty would have been a conversation that they had, no chance on earth Moshiri goes 'Al i'm leaving your buying, i'm going it alone on what we planned for the last ten years', so why wouldn't Usmanov be interested in finally realsiing that shared ambition - he suddenly after 30 years decides that he doesn't want to take that step with Moshiri? - just doesn't hold up when you think about it in those terms
So we can think about the difficulty in Usmanov offloading his shares etc (overstated by those who argue the case for Nyet IMO), what can't be argued though is the fact that two very close friends who have worked like siamese twins in business for 30 years, had a shared dream to own a club, one of those men with the others help is now doing so, and anyone who thinks Usmanov wouldn't want to be a part of that and Moshiri wouldn't want him to be alongside him as they do it, is misjudging the entire relationship between the two guys.
To use a wierd analogy, before we move from Goodision i want to see the place one last time and get back for a match, i also want my now 2 year old son to see Everton play for the first time at Goodison before we move as thats a memory and experience i want him to always have. If the chance came for me to get back - but without him with me and go to a game, i wouldn't go, purely because i want to do that with him, and without it wouldn't feel the same. If you take emotion out of it then yeah i should just go no matter what as i want to do it and it makes sense, but you can't remove emotion from the situation some times and i am convinced that owning a club together is like this with these two 'friends'