Farhad Moshiri

[The Esk]

@The Esk has said there is no way Kroenke allows Usmanov to walk away and set up shop in another club to compete against him. Maybe Esk can shine a light on how that's possible, because I don't understand how Usmanov could be prevented from doing that if he chose to? If Kroenke doesn't want to buy Usmanov's shares what is stop him offering them to the public market?

Maybe I'm not explaining myself very well.

Kroenke won't make it easy for Usmanov by buying his shares. He's got complete control of the club and he has effective control over Usmanov.

Therefore Usmanov has two options if he wants to divest of Arsenal:

1. His brokers can find a buyer for his 30% block. But the buyer will (i) most likely find himself in the same position as Usmanov re control and board representation, and (ii) be aware he is allowing Usmanov the opportunity to create another Chelsea or Man City elsewhere should he chose to do so - not attractive to the block buyer.
2. He can sell his 30% to numerous other investors. Those investors will be aware of Kroenke's modus operandi - there's no real prospect of a dividend for example, and there's no realistic prospect of a larger group of smaller investors gaining influence at board level. Additionally the market price of Arsenal shares would fall significantly given there is a 30% over-hang in the market. That may not worry Usmanov too much, but nevertheless it's not welcome.

All of the above combined with the questions he and Moshiri would inevitably face if Usmanov did the above and bought into Everton, plus his public (and private if you talk to his people) stance that he's holding not only for his life time but that of his children. Equally it's never been established or even hinted that despite their closeness, and they are very close, Moshiri wants to invite Usmanov into Everton.

That's in total a pretty compelling and logical case for it not happening. I appreciate others have heard different but the above obstacles have to be overcome first.

Would I want Usmanov? of course - do I think it likely? - no.

 

[Efcjake]

Will try to step into the mans shoes, then find he has replied already!

In essence, the R&W shares could be sold to anyone. But other than a small army of rich supporters buying them all, which could take ages, why would an investor(s) splurge a ton of cash on 30% of a company with zero influence? It makes little sense to invest gazillions then leave all the decisions to someone else.

But I am sure Esk will explain that better and more accurately than me.

I can understand that from Kroenke's position were Usmanov to sell his 30% whether it be altogether or on the drip, he really wouldn't have much motivation to acquire those shares. He's already the majority owner and entirely in control of the decision-making so why give up some of your liquid capital to purchase the shares if there is no marginal increase in control in exchange. Might as well maintain the status quo if you are Kroenke, especially if Esk is right about him being happy just keeping that Champions League spot.

However, given all that above, if Usmanov decides to liquidate his shares on the open market and Kroenke doesn't want them do you not think he would be able to sell them on an open market? I think he wouldn't have too much trouble doing that given the new stadium and constant CL qualification and branding. You're right to suggest it probably wouldn't be quick if that was how it was going to go. Is there anything stopping Usmanov from arranging a private sale of the bulk of the shares to another private party I wonder?

 

[roydo]

But I am sure Esk will explain that better and more accurately than me.

Told you.

 

[Efcjake]

Maybe I'm not explaining myself very well.

Kroenke won't make it easy for Usmanov by buying his shares. He's got complete control of the club and he has effective control over Usmanov.

Therefore Usmanov has two options if he wants to divest of Arsenal:

1. His brokers can find a buyer for his 30% block. But the buyer will (i) most likely find himself in the same position as Usmanov re control and board represenation, and (ii) be aware he is allowing Usmanov the opportunity to create another Chelsea or Man City elsewhere should he chose to do so - not attractive to the block buyer.
2. He can sell his 30% to numerous other investors. Those investors will be aware of Kroenke's modus operandi - there's no real prospect of a dividend for example, and there's no realistic prospect of a larger group of smaller investors gaining influence at board level. Additionally the market price of Arsenal shares would fall significantly given there is a 30% over-hang in the market. That may not worry Usmanov too much, but nevertheless it's not welcome.

All of the above combined with the questions he and Moshiri would inevitably face if Usmanov did the above and bought into Everton, plus his public (and private if you talk to his people) stance that he's holding not only for his life time but that of his children. Equally it's never been established or even hinted that despite their closeness, and they are very close, Moshiri wants to invite Usmanov into Everton.

That's in total a pretty compelling and logical case for it not happening. I appreciate others have heard different but the above obstacles have to be overcome first.

Would I want Usmanov? of course - do I think it likely? - no.

Thanks Esk, that explains everything perfectly and I had come to much the same conclusions without it being spelled out like it is here.

I do have to say though, I don't know if I understand Usmanov's public position here. He's essentially given up any hope of having a voice in the decision-making of what represents hundreds of millions of pounds of his wealth. He's saying he's intending to pass those shares onto his family who will also be in the same position. With no influence in the decision-making and the direction of the club his only real attachment is to the value of the shares and the wealth that they represent.

He's a savvy investor and if he doesn't agree with the business plan at Arsenal then he surely must be considering the alternatives of selling his interest if he could potentially get a better return elsewhere with the added benefit of having an influence on the direction of his new investment.

I understand the deterrent of the over-valued market price for the shares but, if he is looking at long-term value (and you would think he is given his comments about passing the shares on), surely we must represent a better opportunity for a long-term profitable return making the idea of taking a short-term loss selling his existing Arsenal interest on the open market and reinvesting in us somewhat appealing.

 

[Deco]

@The Esk I know it doesn't make any sense from a business perspective, but considering his ridiculous wealth and that he's not afraid to spend the best part of £1bn in total on yachts..

Couldn't he just offer the shares cheaply and take the financial hit to allow him to buy into Everton?

Even if by doing so it puts Arsenal's position at risk with another strong competitor, they're a huge business and there's likely to be takers at the right price?

 

[The Esk]

I've just realised Usmanov and I have something in common. Minority shareholding, zero influence over the board and aim to pass our shares to our kids lol

 

[Deco]

I've just realised Usmanov and I have something in common. Minority shareholding, zero influence over the board and aim to pass our shares to our kids lol

That Moshiri is stopping you from making us a footballing superpower mate lol

 

[Deleted member 28206]

@The Esk I know it doesn't make any sense from a business perspective, but considering his ridiculous wealth and that he's not afraid to spend the best part of £1bn in total on yachts..

Couldn't he just offer the shares cheaply and take the financial hit to allow him to buy into Everton?

Even if by doing so it puts Arsenal's position at risk with another strong competitor, they're a huge business and there's likely to be takers at the right price?

Hes spent more on yachts than on the footy club.

 

[magicjuan]

Maybe I'm not explaining myself very well.

Kroenke won't make it easy for Usmanov by buying his shares. He's got complete control of the club and he has effective control over Usmanov.

Therefore Usmanov has two options if he wants to divest of Arsenal:

1. His brokers can find a buyer for his 30% block. But the buyer will (i) most likely find himself in the same position as Usmanov re control and board represenation, and (ii) be aware he is allowing Usmanov the opportunity to create another Chelsea or Man City elsewhere should he chose to do so - not attractive to the block buyer.
2. He can sell his 30% to numerous other investors. Those investors will be aware of Kroenke's modus operandi - there's no real prospect of a dividend for example, and there's no realistic prospect of a larger group of smaller investors gaining influence at board level. Additionally the market price of Arsenal shares would fall significantly given there is a 30% over-hang in the market. That may not worry Usmanov too much, but nevertheless it's not welcome.

All of the above combined with the questions he and Moshiri would inevitably face if Usmanov did the above and bought into Everton, plus his public (and private if you talk to his people) stance that he's holding not only for his life time but that of his children. Equally it's never been established or even hinted that despite their closeness, and they are very close, Moshiri wants to invite Usmanov into Everton.

That's in total a pretty compelling and logical case for it not happening. I appreciate others have heard different but the above obstacles have to be overcome first.

Would I want Usmanov? of course - do I think it likely? - no.

There's an option for Kroenke to do what in effect (theoretically and allegedly) Moshiri has been doing for Usmanov in allowing a 3rd party to purchase on an understanding.

My opinion based on what info is out there is he wants to de-list in the same way Man Utd did

 

[The Esk]

@The Esk I know it doesn't make any sense from a business perspective, but considering his ridiculous wealth and that he's not afraid to spend the best part of £1bn in total on yachts..

Couldn't he just offer the shares cheaply and take the financial hit to allow him to buy into Everton?

Even if by doing so it puts Arsenal's position at risk with another strong competitor, they're a huge business and there's likely to be takers at the right price?

That's possible but doesn't get round the potential issue of him and Moshiri acting in concert if this has been their intent all along.

 

[Deco]

Hes spent more on yachts than on the footy club.

That's why I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to sell at a lesser price to make this happen (if he wanted to obviously), when you're that rich does losing a few hundred million matter?

 

[Deco]

That's possible but doesn't get round the potential issue of him and Moshiri acting in concert if this has been their intent all along.

From what you've said (repeatedly for months now as the subject keeps being brought up), it does seem odd how they've dealt with it.

The only thing I can think of to try and justify it, is maybe Moshiri had to act faster than he expected with the other interest in the club and the only way to do this quickly was for Usmanov to purchase his half?

Probably far too speculative, but who knows.

 

[Efcjake]

That's possible but doesn't get round the potential issue of him and Moshiri acting in concert if this has been their intent all along.

That's got to be hard to prove though hasn't it? What is to stop him saying "It wasn't planned ahead of time but I just got tired and felt like a change?"

 

[rochdaleblue]

@The Esk I know it doesn't make any sense from a business perspective, but considering his ridiculous wealth and that he's not afraid to spend the best part of £1bn in total on yachts..

Couldn't he just offer the shares cheaply and take the financial hit to allow him to buy into Everton?

Even if by doing so it puts Arsenal's position at risk with another strong competitor, they're a huge business and there's likely to be takers at the right price?

Nice thought. But billionaires don't become billionaires by taking financial hits, especially when he could get full value for his shares.

 

[Efcjake]

Nice thought. But billionaires don't become billionaires by taking financial hits, especially when he could get full value for his shares.

But if you look at it as two long-term investment possibilities there is a potential for him to still come out ahead if he sold Arsenal shares below market price and took that capital and invested it into Everton and spurred growth of the value of the shares at a faster rate than the market price growth of the Arsenal shares.