Tesla

SerenityNigh · May 4, 2015

has announced a home battery for energy storage. I don't understand batteries, but read here and here

How disruptive will the Tesla battery be?
by Tyler Cowen on May 4, 2015 at 12:31 pm in Current Affairs, Economics, Science | Permalink

Ramez Naam has an opinion, backed up by some reasonable estimates:

For most of the US, this battery isn’t quite cheap enough. But it’s in the right ballpark. And that means a lot. Net Metering plans in the US are filling up. California’s may be full by the end of 2016 or 2017, modulo additional legal changes. That would severely impact the economics of solar. But another factor of 2 price reduction in storage would make it cheap enough that, as Net Metering plans fill up or are reduced around the country, the battery would allow solar owners to save power for the evening or night-time hours in a cost effective way.

That is also a policy tool in debates with utilities. If they see Net Metering reductions as a tool to slow rooftop solar, they’ll be forced to confront the fact that solar owners with cheap batteries are less dependent on Net Metering.

That same factor of 2 price reduction would also make batteries effective for day-night electricity cost arbitrage, wherein customers fill up the battery with cheap grid power at night, and use stored battery power instead of the grid during the day. In California, where there’s a 19 cent gap between middle of the night power and peak-of-day power, those economics look very attractive.

And the cost of batteries is plunging fast. Tesla will get that 2x price reduction within 3-5 years, if not faster.

Read the whole thing, and note the discussion of India too.

- See more at Marginal Revolution

cduff · May 6, 2015

SerenityNigh said:
has announced a home battery for energy storage. I don't understand batteries, but read here and here

$3000 for a 10KW home system. Larger systems for larger premises. This sounds like a massive game changer. Basically homes, companies, communities could seriously look at going off grid. Not sure how Govts and Electricity companies will handle this.

BigDunc'sFod · May 6, 2015

I bought a brownstone in Brooklyn 2 years ago. No idea how much energy we use, or how much of a difference, if any, this will make.

If there was a reasonably easy way to figure that out I'd consider installation. Until then, I CBA

riddick · May 6, 2015

I love that Eli Musk is actually trying to make the world a better place. Putting his own money where his boasts are and putting some of his plans online for others to improve on.

BigDunc'sFod · May 6, 2015

riddick said:
I love that Eli Musk is actually trying to make the world a better place. Putting his own money where his boasts are and putting some of his plans online for others to improve on.

Needs to learn how to speak publicly better

Bruce Wayne · May 6, 2015

Solar power is quickly becoming comparable in price to fossil fuels too, even without the subsidies producers have tended to attract in the past. Interesting times.

SerenityNigh · May 6, 2015

BigDunc'sFod said:
I bought a brownstone in Brooklyn 2 years ago. No idea how much energy we use, or how much of a difference, if any, this will make.

If there was a reasonably easy way to figure that out I'd consider installation. Until then, I CBA

I'd guess it works if you produce your own energy (solar) or you buy at peak/off-peak rates and can store cheaper energy for use at peak times. Then it's a simple ROI calculation.

TheFinnFan · May 6, 2015

Good for my doomsday prepping plans

sageyefc · May 6, 2015

As long as my generation has fossil fuels im going to use it all up. Let them deal with it in 100 years time

BigDunc'sFod · May 6, 2015

SerenityNigh said:
I'd guess it works if you produce your own energy (solar) or you buy at peak/off-peak rates and can store cheaper energy for use at peak times. Then it's a simple ROI calculation.

What I'm saying is - he's trying to malke the case/argument that it's easy and better, but he's using science and not real-world examples

I'm a liberal who is interested in energy conservation and I can't be bothered doing the legwork to figure out if $3500 plus installation is cost-effective for me. Need to realize that for the majority to adopt you have to make it a no-brainer.

For me, he has to show me, with little effort on my part, that I can break even within 5 years of adopting his technology.

Bruce Wayne · May 6, 2015

BigDunc'sFod said:
What I'm saying is - he's trying to malke the case/argument that it's easy and better, but he's using science and not real-world examples

I'm a liberal who is interested in energy conservation and I can't be bothered doing the legwork to figure out if $3500 plus installation is cost-effective for me. Need to realize that for the majority to adopt you have to make it a no-brainer.

For me, he has to show me, with little effort on my part, that I can break even within 5 years of adopting his technology.

To be fair though, this isn't even at the early adopter stage yet. I'd be amazed if prices didn't come down considerably over the coming decade. There's so much investment going into battery technology.

SerenityNigh · May 6, 2015

BigDunc'sFod said:
What I'm saying is - he's trying to malke the case/argument that it's easy and better, but he's using science and not real-world examples

I'm a liberal who is interested in energy conservation and I can't be bothered doing the legwork to figure out if $3500 plus installation is cost-effective for me. Need to realize that for the majority to adopt you have to make it a no-brainer.

For me, he has to show me, with little effort on my part, that I can break even within 5 years of adopting his technology.

I disagree (but I'm a free market capitalist). It's Musk's responsibility to create good products and market them reasonably. It's your responsibility to make an informed decision about purchase. He'll find someone else to buy his product if you're not interested.

SerenityNigh · May 6, 2015

Bruce Wayne said:
To be fair though, this isn't even at the early adopter stage yet. I'd be amazed if prices didn't come down considerably over the coming decade. There's so much investment going into battery technology.

Indeed--it's not a mature market yet. Some may even find opportunities to arbitrage price differential by selling back to the grid. In a few years, this and the related technologies will find a good fit.