4th Place - What's it going to take?

[toffeeblue9]

It's getting to the point now where we'll all start to think about exactly what we're going to need to do to grab that 4th spot. The Arsenal result has us all believing we're in with a shot, so how many points are we going to have to get to grab that last Champions League spot?

Over the history of The Premier League, the team finishing in 4th place has posted the following number of points:

1992/1993 - Blackburn Rovers: 71 points (42 game season)
1993/1994 - Arsenal: 71 points (42 game season)
1994/1995 - Liverpool: 74 points (42 game season)
1995/1996 - Aston Ville: 63 points
1996/1997 - Liverpool: 68 points
1997/1998 - Chelsea: 63 points
1998/1999 - Leeds United: 67 points
1999/2000 - Liverpool: 67 points
2000/2001 - Leeds United: 68 points
2001/2002 - Newcastle United: 71 points
2002/2003 - Chelsea: 67 points
2003/2004 - Liverpool: 60 points
2004/2005 - Everton: 61 points
2005/2006 - Arsenal: 67 points
2006/2007 - Arsenal: 68 points
2007/2008 - Liverpool: 76 points
2008/2009 - Arsenal: 72 points
2009/2010 - Tottenham Hotspur: 70 points
2010/2011 - Arsenal: 68 points
2011/2012 - Tottenham Hotsupr: 69 points
2012/2013 - Arsenal: 73 points


So, you can surmise the following:

Liverpool hold the record for both the highest and lowest points achieved in finishing 4th (60 points in 03/04 and 76 points in 07/08).

The average number of points it has taken for a side to finish 4th since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams is 67.66

Clearly it is going to require an above average number of points this season. From a personal point of view, I can see us needing to get somewhere around the record total that Liverpool achieved in 2008 of 76 to get that 4th spot.

 

[KevMirallas]

Four wins will do it IMO. Palace, Sunderland, Hull and Southampton. We could do United and City at home too, but win those four and they won't catch us I don't think.

 

[Loz]

It'll take 74 points this season me thinks. And, yes, we can do it.

 

[Comptonlacalifornia]

Got to win every game really and forget what Arsenal are doing.

 

[allen]

I'm still not daring to believe - but I'm getting there.

It's in our hands - you can't ask for more than that.

 

[Ashtonian]

We need to win every game, nothing less will be good enough. Arsenal will win most if not all their games left so we need to match them blow for blow. Lucky for us our big games bar one are all at home.

It will take another 15 points at least to finish 4th, incredible amounts of points really, but the fact we are in that position even now is all credit to our new manager.

 

[AaronTheBlue]

Is it weird that i'm getting badly nervous already. Don't normally get like this!

What it IS going to take is a tiny bit of luck [arsenal losing a game or two] and a lot of hard work from us.

 

[flibbyflob]

I think we need 4 wins minimum, might need 5. Just win the next one and put the pressure on them.

 

[Jags]

Most arsenal can finish on is 79. So every dropped point from them must be subtracted from that, and that should be our aim now. To get that we need 5 wins and a draw. However, I feel Arsenal will drop points.

 

[Banhart]

1 game at a time.... Ideally win every game from now until the end of the season, no point looking around us or hoping arsenal slip up.

 

[Petit]

We obviously win't win every match and Arsenal sure as hell won't. Their players were practically walking sideways to avoid each other yesterday, not the look of a team about to go on a five match winning run. They have no leaders.

 

[N.S.N.O.]

I think we should assume Arsenal will win atleast 4 of their 5 games...

West Ham (H)....west ham are crap to begin with, but have nothing left to play for now....
Hull (A)....I'm hoping Hull can maybe do us a favour here (draw), although their win at the weekend means they're safe from relegation now...maybe a draw...
Newcastle (H).....moving on.....
West Brom (H)...hopefully west brom are still involved in the relegation fight at this point....but even then, you'd fancy arsenal for an easy 3 points...
Norwich (A)....Norwich could be relegated by this point, will be tough for arsenal if norwich need a result to stay up....otherwise easy 3 points

Predicted points Arsenal: 77 pts


basically we have to beat Sunderland, Palace, Man United & Hull....then maybe a draw against Southampton & City.....that would put us on 77 points too....so it would down to goal difference (we're +5 right now)...


so its still Arsenal's to lose, their run-in is alot easier....

 

[West]

I fancy west ham to get a draw next week and if we win our next two games we will be 4 points clear

 

[Dithering Dougie]

It's vital we win at Sunderland and put the pressure on them, next Saturday is our game in hand match because they've got their Cup game.

 

[N.S.N.O.]

We obviously win't win every match and Arsenal sure as hell won't. Their players were practically walking sideways to avoid each other yesterday, not the look of a team about to go on a five match winning run. They have no leaders.

problem is they face weak opposition (and teams that might not have anything to play for).....Ramsey back will boost them, plus ozil will be back soon too....
You need luck in football, and the fixture list might just get them out of jail....the unlucky points we dropped particularily late to liverpool & chelsea might just bite us again.....spurs too, we should have atleast got a point from that, and 1 point could make all the difference....