The run in thread

[bluebastardo]

Let's take a look at the run in, and our chances of Europe.

Based on my limited knowledge, so please forgive any errors.

Here is the current League table:

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I guess our main opponents ( in the league ) for this place are the following teams:

Aston Villa ( Still in FA Cup & Carling Cup Final )
Tottenham Hotspurs ( Still in FA Cup )
Manchester City ( Still in FA Cup )
Birmingham City ( Still in FA Cup )
Fulham ( Still in FA Cup & Europa )
Liverpool ( Still in Europa )

If we are going to qualify again, I feel our best opportunity lies in our own hands, by winning the Europa competition.
The Premiership does NOT look a good bet for Europa qualification, unless we can get to 5th, because of who is left in the cups.

Why?

Carling cup:

Manchester United v Aston Villa

If United win, an extra Europa place goes to the Prem.
If Aston Villa win, then one less place goes to the Prem, unless Villa hit top 4, which is unlikely, OR qualify for Europa via a league place, which IS likely.

In either case, will Villa qualify for Europa as Cup runners up if they don't do it via the league?

This leaves only 6 possible places.

FA Cup:

Chelsea v Cardiff
Derby v Birmingham
Man City v Stoke
Bolton v Tottenham
Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
Southampton v Portsmouth
Fulham v Notts County
Reading v West Brom

Here are the various possibilities:








A Europa League place is vacated when a team qualify for both the Champions League and the Europa League, or qualify for the Europa League by more than one method. When a place is vacated, it is redistributed within the national association by the following rules:

• When the domestic cup winners (considered as the "highest-placed" qualifier within the national association) also qualify for the Champions League, their Europa League place is vacated, and the remaining Europa League qualifiers are moved up one place, with the final place (with the earliest entrance) taken by the domestic cup runners-up, provided they do not already qualify for the Champions League or the Europa League. Otherwise, this place is taken by the highest-placed league finisher which do not qualify for the Europa League yet.
• When the domestic cup winners also qualify for the Europa League through league position, their place through the league position is vacated, and the Europa League qualifiers which finish lower in the league are moved up one place, with the final place taken by the highest-placed league finisher which do not qualify for the Europa League yet.
• A place vacated by the League Cup winners is taken by the highest-placed league finisher which do not qualify for the Europa League yet.
• A Fair Play place is taken by the highest-ranked team in the domestic Fair Play table which do not qualify for the Champions League or Europa League yet.
• If the Europa League title holders also qualify for the Champions League or the Europa League through domestic performance, their vacated place in the Europa League is not taken by any team.
• 
• 

Aston Villa :

Aston Villa are already in a cup final.

They are also still in the FA Cup, and should get past Crystal Palace and a Semi Final place at least.
Their run in is reasonably comfortable, with only 4 top 10 teams, of which 2 are in the top 4 to play.

Here are their remaining League fixtures:

Aston Villa v Burnley
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Stoke v Aston Villa
Wigan v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Wolverhampton
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Bolton v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Everton
Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Birmingham
Man City v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Blackburn

Tottenham Hotspurs:

Spurs are also still in the FA Cup, and play Bolton in the next round. They have played 1 game more than us, and are our next opponents after United.
Their run in is quite difficult, with 5 of the top 10 teams left to play, including 3 of the current top 4.

Here are their remaining League fixtures:

Wigan v Tottenham
Tottenham v Everton
Man City v Tottenham
Tottenham v Blackburn
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v Portsmouth
Sunderland v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham v Chelsea
Man Utd v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bolton
Burnley v Tottenham

Manchester City:


City are also still in the FA Cup, and have a good chance of breaking into the top 4.
However, their remaining fixtures are horrendous, and still have to play 8 out of the top 10 teams, including every top 4 side.

Here are their remaining League fixtures:

Stoke v Man City
Man City v Liverpool
Chelsea v Man City
Man City v Tottenham
Sunderland v Man City
Fulham v Man City
Man City v Wigan
Burnley v Man City
Man City v Birmingham
Man City v Man Utd
Arsenal v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
West Ham v Man City

Birmingham City:

Birmingham City are also still in the FA Cup, and have been very strong defensively all season. Only 1 loss in 15 games is pretty damn good.
They only have 6 of the top 10 teams to play, but only 2 of the current top 4 are awaiting them.

Here are their remaining League fixtures:

Fulham v Birmingham
Birmingham v Wigan
Blackburn v Birmingham
Portsmouth v Birmingham
Birmingham v Everton
Sunderland v Birmingham
Birmingham v Arsenal
Birmingham v Liverpool
Man City v Birmingham
Birmingham v Hull
Aston Villa v Birmingham
Birmingham v Burnley
Bolton v Birmingham

 

[bluebastardo]

Fulham:

Fulham are also left in the FA Cup, and are the only team other than Liverpool who also have Europa commitments.
With the loss of Dempsey, they're a bit weaker, and they're just emerging from a dark period, and starting to hit form.

With 6 top 10 teams to play, 3 of which are top 4, plus Europa and FA commitments, their run in is quite tricky.

Here are their remaining League fixtures:

Fulham v Birmingham
Sunderland v Fulham
Fulham v Stoke
Man Utd v Fulham
Fulham v Man City
Hull v Fulham
Fulham v Wigan
Liverpool v Fulham
Fulham v Wolverhampton
Everton v Fulham
Fulham v West Ham
Arsenal v Fulham
Fulham v Wigan (to be arranged)

Liverpool:

I've included Liverpool as they aren't out of reach yet, as they are 9 points above us, but we have a game in hand on them.
They are also in Europa, and could become Europa opponents.
5 hard matches left against top 10 sides, 2 of which are the top 2 teams in Chelsea and United, plus their Europa fixtures gives Liverpool a bumpy ride to the finishing line.

Here are their remaining League fixtures:

Man City v Liverpool
Liverpool v Blackburn
Wigan v Liverpool
Liverpool v Portsmouth
Man Utd v Liverpool
Liverpool v Sunderland
Birmingham v Liverpool
Liverpool v Fulham
Liverpool v West Ham
Burnley v Liverpool
Liverpool v Chelsea
Hull v Liverpool


Let's compare these teams fixtures to our own.

We also have 5 top 10 teams to play, but only 1 top 4 team in United.
We will hopefully have a full squad to chose from in the run in, but we also have Europa to deal with.

Everton v Man Utd
Tottenham v Everton
Everton v Hull
Birmingham v Everton
Everton v Bolton
Wolverhampton v Everton
Everton v West Ham
Aston Villa v Everton
Blackburn v Everton
Everton v Fulham
Stoke v Everton
Everton v Portsmouth


So there it is.
The run in, and the teams that are challenging us for those Europa places.
How do you think it will work out?

For your own amusement, here is a predictor
BBC SPORT | Football | Premier League | Predictor

 

[AdamTheGreatOneB]

Let's just keep winning games and see what happens.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Good post but to clarify the Carling Cup bit, League Cup runners don't qualify for the Europa League. You seem to have contradicted yourself;

Manchester United v Aston Villa

If United win, an extra Europa place goes to the Prem.
If Aston Villa win, then one less place goes to the Prem, unless Villa hit top 4, which is unlikely, OR qualify for Europa via a league place, which IS likely.

In either case, Villa will qualify for Europa as Cup runners up if they don't do it via the league.

 

[bluebastardo]

Good post but to clarify the Carling Cup bit, League Cup runners don't qualify for the Europa League. You seem to have contradicted yourself;

Yep, I put a question mark after it after noticing I hadn't done so.
It was more of a question.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

In that case, probably wise putting "will Villa", rather than making a bold statement "Villa will"

As for the question of Europe, it depends it 7th is good enough.

 

[bluebastardo]

In that case, probably wise putting "will Villa", rather than making a bold statement "Villa will"

As for the question of Europe, it depends it 7th is good enough.

Yep, done.

It came from this bit:

When the domestic cup winners (considered as the "highest-placed" qualifier within the national association) also qualify for the Champions League, their Europa League place is vacated, and the remaining Europa League qualifiers are moved up one place, with the final place (with the earliest entrance) taken by the domestic cup runners-up, provided they do not already qualify for the Champions League or the Europa League. Otherwise, this place is taken by the highest-placed league finisher which do not qualify for the Europa League yet.
When the domestic cup winners also qualify for the Europa League through league position, their place through the league position is vacated, and the Europa League qualifiers which finish lower in the league are moved up one place, with the final place taken by the highest-placed league finisher which do not qualify for the Europa League yet.
A place vacated by the League Cup winners is taken by the highest-placed league finisher which do not qualify for the Europa League yet.
A Fair Play place is taken by the highest-ranked team in the domestic Fair Play table which do not qualify for the Champions League or Europa League yet.
If the Europa League title holders also qualify for the Champions League or the Europa League through domestic performance, their vacated place in the Europa League is not taken by any team.

 

[teppic]

Had we taken advantage on Saturday I would have said anything is possible as we would now only be 3 points behind Liverpool with a game in hand.

This season has been wide open and it's such a shame we have not been part of it. We really should be taking the situation by the scruff of the neck up there.

That champions league chasing pack do seem to be losing more than teams at the bottom at the moment though so if we can get past united with 3 points it will be very interesting.

The simple fact is that we are so far behind 2 more defeats this season will finish off all apart from a stab at 7th.

 

[tadpole]

Let's suppose that the target is a top 6 finish. To do that, we would have to overhaul Birmingham and two other teams (Man City ? Liverpool ? Spurs ? Villa ?). All the top 7 can be expected to win a few more games yet, so we will need a very high points total from our remaining games to catch them. This is far from impossible, but :

It's a mistake to think that the hard games are just the obvious ones - Man Utd, Man City, etc. Every game we have left will be difficult. Think back to the last month. Some of the most difficult games for us have been Birmingham, Wigan, Liverpool : teams that have been well organised and very committed, quick to the tackle, and trying to stop us from playing free flowing football. I predict that the likes of Wolves, Stoke, Blackburn will be just as tough for us. If we're looking to push for Europe these are the kind of games that we have to be dominating and winning consistently, and I'm worried that's where we could come unstuck.

 

[padefc]

as lon as we beat the teams around us we will be fine tight as it is

 

[atrottel]

I think you've missed out (as does the BBC predictor) our (as yet unscheduled) previously postponed game at Man City.

 

[AdamTheGreatOneB]

Let's suppose that the target is a top 6 finish. To do that, we would have to overhaul Birmingham and two other teams (Man City ? Liverpool ? Spurs ? Villa ?). All the top 7 can be expected to win a few more games yet, so we will need a very high points total from our remaining games to catch them. This is far from impossible, but :

It's a mistake to think that the hard games are just the obvious ones - Man Utd, Man City, etc. Every game we have left will be difficult. Think back to the last month. Some of the most difficult games for us have been Birmingham, Wigan, Liverpool : teams that have been well organised and very committed, quick to the tackle, and trying to stop us from playing free flowing football. I predict that the likes of Wolves, Stoke, Blackburn will be just as tough for us. If we're looking to push for Europe these are the kind of games that we have to be dominating and winning consistently, and I'm worried that's where we could come unstuck.

I agree with this. The games against the teams towards the bottom will be just a difficult. We should know that already having already lost to Burnley, Hull, Bolton and drawing at home to the likes of Wolves and Stoke. There are no easy games.

 

[Robert Jarvis]

It looks a tall order but not impossible if we keep winning while others lose like in the games this midweek.

 

[chicoazul]

Nicely put together BB.

Not sure we'll finish above eighth but will have a better idea at the beginning of March. Our run in from thereon is not too bad at all.

 

[NeoNaoNeo]

Can we finish in the top 6? Of course!

Will we? Up for debate.