I had this conversation in real life a little while ago but lets bring it up again with the man city semi final at the half way stage.
Everton have over the last 15 years been a half decent team who have never actually done anything. We've been allright but never managed to click and make that quite goodness count. Some of our fans say this is because we are chokers. That we have the talent but not the bottle. That we can win games that mean nothing but lose when it really matters.
I very strongly disagree with that. Bottlers are really talented teams like the south african cricket team or the all blacks during the 1990s and 2000s who maul everyone they play in friendlies and group stages and then fall to pieces in semis and quarters. We have never been truly dominant. We just aren't good enough over 38 games. We don't normally win the first 36 games and then fall apart at the end, we just lose some, draw some and don't win enough over those 38 games.
The thing most people point to is our failiure to win a cup as emplified by the quarter final against wigan. Which we were terrible in but it was one of 6 quarter finals we played under moyes and martinez and we have won 4 of those 6 (the other loss being arsenal away 2 years ago). Our record in the third round, otoh, is winning 16 out of 28. Which is worse. If you lose nearly half of your third round games, you're not good enough to a choker. We are just as likely to lose a third round game as a qf or a semi final or a final, that's nothing to do with the pressue. We're just not good enough.
The other instance people point to is 4th place. We've been in a serious fight for 4th place three times and twice we let it slip at the end. The obvious counter is that we didn't let it slip the third time but lets go on.
Two years ago we beat arsenal to go 2 points ahead of them with 6 games to go and our fate entirely in our own hands. Sunderland away then palace and man u at home, southampton away, city at home and hull away. We won 3 but lost the other 3. Which given we only lost 5 in our first 32 games is a hell of a loss of form. Arsenal won all of their 5 and we finished 7 points behind them. So choke, right?
Well no, not in my opinion. Arsenal got 79 points that season. 26 games in we had 45 points. Which meant we needed 35 points out of 12 games to get 80 points. So we needed to win all of our last 12 games to finish 4th. We won the first 7 of those 12. If our problem was pressure, where was that in the game against arsenal or the one straight after against sunderland? We just weren't a team capable of winning 12 games in a row is the point, we were knackered and short of squad players who could come in and make the difference. If we were good enough that it's choking to finish 5th then we wouldn't have been in a position where we couldn't afford to drop a point over 12 games because we wouldn't have been that far behind the pack in march.
I mean look at 2007-08 in comparison. That season we went into the game vs the team in 4th, liverpool, 2 points behind them having won 7 games out of 9 to haul them back. If it was something in our philosophy that we're ok chasing teams but then once we get 4th we throw it away (apart from in 2004-05 when we didn't) we'd have beaten them, gone one point ahead and then fell apart. We didn't, we lost and then lost to arsenal and chelsea as well and ended up 11 points behind them. That's just our standard, it's not that we choked because we were 4th and felt the pressure, that's just what we are. A good team not a great one.
I think we can beat City and Liverpool/Stoke to win the carling cup, because I don't believe everton is a team who play noticably worse in high pressure games than low pressure games. So our chances are the same as they would be if we played those teams in the league in september. Unfortunately when we do that, we tend to lose those games anyway so eh.
Everton have over the last 15 years been a half decent team who have never actually done anything. We've been allright but never managed to click and make that quite goodness count. Some of our fans say this is because we are chokers. That we have the talent but not the bottle. That we can win games that mean nothing but lose when it really matters.
I very strongly disagree with that. Bottlers are really talented teams like the south african cricket team or the all blacks during the 1990s and 2000s who maul everyone they play in friendlies and group stages and then fall to pieces in semis and quarters. We have never been truly dominant. We just aren't good enough over 38 games. We don't normally win the first 36 games and then fall apart at the end, we just lose some, draw some and don't win enough over those 38 games.
The thing most people point to is our failiure to win a cup as emplified by the quarter final against wigan. Which we were terrible in but it was one of 6 quarter finals we played under moyes and martinez and we have won 4 of those 6 (the other loss being arsenal away 2 years ago). Our record in the third round, otoh, is winning 16 out of 28. Which is worse. If you lose nearly half of your third round games, you're not good enough to a choker. We are just as likely to lose a third round game as a qf or a semi final or a final, that's nothing to do with the pressue. We're just not good enough.
The other instance people point to is 4th place. We've been in a serious fight for 4th place three times and twice we let it slip at the end. The obvious counter is that we didn't let it slip the third time but lets go on.
Two years ago we beat arsenal to go 2 points ahead of them with 6 games to go and our fate entirely in our own hands. Sunderland away then palace and man u at home, southampton away, city at home and hull away. We won 3 but lost the other 3. Which given we only lost 5 in our first 32 games is a hell of a loss of form. Arsenal won all of their 5 and we finished 7 points behind them. So choke, right?
Well no, not in my opinion. Arsenal got 79 points that season. 26 games in we had 45 points. Which meant we needed 35 points out of 12 games to get 80 points. So we needed to win all of our last 12 games to finish 4th. We won the first 7 of those 12. If our problem was pressure, where was that in the game against arsenal or the one straight after against sunderland? We just weren't a team capable of winning 12 games in a row is the point, we were knackered and short of squad players who could come in and make the difference. If we were good enough that it's choking to finish 5th then we wouldn't have been in a position where we couldn't afford to drop a point over 12 games because we wouldn't have been that far behind the pack in march.
I mean look at 2007-08 in comparison. That season we went into the game vs the team in 4th, liverpool, 2 points behind them having won 7 games out of 9 to haul them back. If it was something in our philosophy that we're ok chasing teams but then once we get 4th we throw it away (apart from in 2004-05 when we didn't) we'd have beaten them, gone one point ahead and then fell apart. We didn't, we lost and then lost to arsenal and chelsea as well and ended up 11 points behind them. That's just our standard, it's not that we choked because we were 4th and felt the pressure, that's just what we are. A good team not a great one.
I think we can beat City and Liverpool/Stoke to win the carling cup, because I don't believe everton is a team who play noticably worse in high pressure games than low pressure games. So our chances are the same as they would be if we played those teams in the league in september. Unfortunately when we do that, we tend to lose those games anyway so eh.
