The bigger clubs have vast numbers of tourist fans desperate to make once a year or even once a life-time trips. They have literally millions of fans who would like to get to a few games a year and hundreds of thousand who would go to most or every match if they could. We're nowhere near that in terms of size of fanbase and demand. We've also been quietly pushing the price envelope in recent seasons, in anticipation of BMD, and we're now one of the most expensive outside London. Yes, winning makes a big difference to outlook, but we've seen lots of empty seats because there isn't any real surplus in demand at those prices, and given the on-going transport issues which adversely affect fans with mobility issues. I've a feeling that we will have the biggest number of non-renewals in years this year.
Well, to combine the excitement of predicting, coupled with a test of the reliability of AI, here’s what ChatGPT has to say:
‘Using a base of 34,000 season ticket holders, I’d estimate roughly 2,200–3,200 relinquished season ticket seats, with a central estimate of about 2,700 non-renewals for the 2026/27 season at Everton F.C. That would equate to a churn rate of approximately:
- 6.5% at the low end (≈2,200)
- 8% at the midpoint (≈2,700)
- 9.5% at the high end (≈3,200)
This is because:
- A 34,000 season ticket base is smaller and more concentrated than many initially assumed for the new stadium.
- New-stadium psychology usually suppresses cancellations because supporters fear losing long-term access permanently.
- Everton’s waiting list and pent-up demand effectively turn the season ticket into a scarce asset.
- Many disgruntled supporters who might otherwise walk away tend instead to downgrade seat location, share tickets informally, or absorb the price increase for another year.
But I still wouldn’t expect churn to fall much below 6%, because:
- the 2026/27 price rises are significant for some long-standing supporters,
- Bramley-Moore transport and matchday logistics remain a concern,
- some older Goodison-era holders may feel disconnected from the move,
- and economic pressure in Merseyside remains a real factor.
So if I had to pick a single figure rather than a range, my prediction would be:
Around 2,700 season tickets relinquished, leaving Everton with extremely little difficulty reselling every available seat almost immediately’.