Relegation 23/24 Thread

[Toffeelover]

I know. But it'll dependent on having a season where we are infinitely better than the last two seasons AND weathering the upset of getting 10 points taken off us...which is bound to affect the players.

Prognosis not looking good.

 

[davek]

tbh, before all this broke...and on the back of our recent 'upturn'...I was pencilling us in for 44.

2 weeks is a long time in football

Oh I was too. But how can this not affect form and outlook of a bang average squad?

We are on a knife edge now. I think we pick up more points than Luton in the remainder of the season, but not by much. So that 5 point gap they have looks enormous.

 

[davek]

Prognosis not looking good.

Not right now.

But I know Luton are not great too.

Next week we have to at least not let them get further ahead. I think that might see our players and fans begin to accept their fate.

 

[davek]

Based on what exactly? Because they were fortunate to beat Palace.

They're tough to beat by and large - 1 goal here and there. And they look like they've got to grips with this league now. Hopefully not, but that's the way it's looking.

 

[siddharth]

Just seem to be better picking moments away from home. Look at the Palace game, good performance but not like it was anywhere dominant. Just scored right at the start of the game, start of second half and then right at the end when Palace were far more likely to score. Similar at Brenford although that was a more controlled performance back to front.

There's no magic formula, go in the lead early at Goodison and points are far more likely as seen v Bournemouth and Brighton.

Yesterday there was a fluke element given going straight down to the goal of the season pretty much as soon as the game kicked off.

The simplest plan there is, just to outscore the opponent

 

[NathDogg]

They're tough to beat by and large - 1 goal here and there. And they look like they've got to grips with this league now. Hopefully not, but that's the way it's looking.

Mate, palace should have been out of sight, as should we.

They spawned two wins, it happens but I really don’t think they have got to grips with the league at all. Even Burnley beat them for gods sake….

 

[efcfanwirral]

I know. But it'll dependent on having a season where we are infinitely better than the last two seasons AND weathering the upset of getting 10 points taken off us...which is bound to affect the players.

Yeah this is it. The Brentford, West ham and Palace games (plus the Villa cup game) give me a little bit of hope on that.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

It's the pressure I think many don't appreciate.

Top players rise to it, but we don't have them - our lads crumble when there's expectation to win (see home results last 3 years vs bottom 5/6 teams), and when you put in the pressure of '6 pointer' style games for so long.

I'm convinced that 10 point deduction if it stands takes us to being in relegation contention until May. We've got an 8 point swing just to reach 16th.

 

[davek]

Mate, palace should have been out of sight, as should we.

They spawned two wins, it happens but I really don’t think they have got to grips with the league at all. Even Burnley beat them for gods sake….

I hope you're right and they don't turn into 'the Forest' of this season. If they do we are cooked.

 

[JLW]

It's the pressure I think many don't appreciate.

Top players rise to it, but we don't have them - our lads crumble when there's expectation to win (see home results last 3 years vs bottom 5/6 teams), and when you put in the pressure of '6 pointer' style games for so long.

I'm convinced that 10 point deduction if it stands takes us to being in relegation contention until May. We've got an 8 point swing just to reach 16th.

Do you think we will win 2 more games than Luton/Sheff utd between now and the end of the season? Starting now i think we will win at least 5 more then them which puts us comfortably safe.

I dont see Luton and Sheff utd getting another 5/6 wins for the rest of the season.

I get the pressure thing which we are not very good at but we will be fine i believe and that's with a manager who i don't think is any good.

 

[davek]

Just don't fall further behind Luton at the weekend.

If we can manage that then we can begin to clear our players heads and start a fightback.

They must be reeling atm. They stepped off the pitch at Selhurst Park a win away from 9th place; they walk off Goodison Park yesterday rooted to the bottom of the table and 5 points from safety.

No one is going to tell me that isn't going to affect a group of players not exactly known as mentality monsters.

We need as an organisation - fans and players - to stabilise and get our heads around what must happen next. Small steps of draws are going to be important. We cant just go out and try and get 3 points to get out of the drop zone ASAP.

This will take months of hard yards.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Do you think we will win 2 more games than Luton/Sheff utd between now and the end of the season? Starting now i think we will win at least 5 more then them which puts us comfortably safe.

I dont see Luton and Sheff utd getting another 5/6 wins for the rest of the season.

I get the pressure thing which we are not very good at but we will be fine i believe and that's with a manager who i don't think is any good.

If our points per game are the same as the last 3 year average, we finish on 27 points.

It only takes one of the 3 we've all wrote off to find a purple patch. Like Bournemouth did.

The last 7 weeks has given people a false sense of security.

 

[maccavennie]

Do you think we will win 2 more games than Luton/Sheff utd between now and the end of the season? Starting now i think we will win at least 5 more then them which puts us comfortably safe.

I dont see Luton and Sheff utd getting another 5/6 wins for the rest of the season.

I get the pressure thing which we are not very good at but we will be fine i believe and that's with a manager who i don't think is any good.

I think as things stand, we could be about 10-12 points off being out of the relegation zone come around New Years day as we have a whole lot of tough games coming up. I don't fancy us at home at all so I've pretty much written the next 3 off.

We'd have to go on a quality run imo

I thought yesterday was imperative to not lose but we have, so now that lobs huge pressure on us to go and get a result at Forest.

Edit

Next 7 games I see us getting 8 points which will put us on 12pts
I see Luton getting about 4 points so that puts them on 13pts
I see Burnley getting about 4pts so that puts them on 8pts
I see Sheff Utd getting about 4pts which will put them on 9pts

So yeah tbf to you you are probably right. I think it definitely relies on none of the above having a purple patch and we definitely need tk be picking up points.

Mental that we could get to New Year on 12 pts yet probably just be a win away from getting out of it or already be out of it.

Makes for proper grim reading though and it's going to be a horrible next 6 weeks

 

[JLW]

If our points per game are the same as the last 3 year average, we finish on 27 points.

It only takes one of the 3 we've all wrote off to find a purple patch. Like Bournemouth did.

The last 7 weeks has given people a false sense of security.

This time next week we could be 2 points from safety, that then gives us 24 games (72 points) to achieve just 2 more than the team above us.

There is a marathon still to run here, i would fancy our chances if there was 10 games left, we made 5 up on Burnley with 5 games remaining 2 years ago.

What gives me massive hope is we arent chasing teams like Leicester ort Leeds who for as poor as they were still had a lot of quality in their sides, its Luton town Sheff utd atm, plus Fulham and Bournemouth aren't out of the equation yet.

I am in know way worrying about our PL status just yet, plenty more twist and turns left.
Just like Burnley the teams around us could easily lose 6/7 games on the spin, i dont think we have that in us.

 

[RomanReigns]

I think as things stand, we could be about 10-12 points off being out of the relegation zone come around New Years day as we have a whole lot of tough games coming up. I don't fancy us at home at all so I've pretty much written the next 3 off.

We'd have to go on a quality run imo

I thought yesterday was imperative to not lose but we have, so now that lobs huge pressure on us to go and get a result at Forest.

Edit

Next 7 games I see us getting 8 points which will put us on 12pts
I see Luton getting about 4 points so that puts them on 13pts
I see Burnley getting about 4pts so that puts them on 8pts
I see Sheff Utd getting about 4pts which will put them on 9pts

So yeah tbf to you you are probably right. I think it definitely relies on none of the above having a purple patch and we definitely need tk be picking up points.

Mental that we could get to New Year on 12 pts yet probably just be a win away from getting out of it or already be out of it.

Makes for proper grim reading though and it's going to be a horrible next 6 weeks

dont forget the 5 point refund from the premier league as well