January Transfer Window 2023

[Simon Buttle]

I fully admit Patterson still needs time to develop and I'm still not sure how good he will ultimately turn out to be defensively. I do think your statement about Patterson's Scotland performances are a bit off. Admittedly it was only half a dozen games or so but for Scotland he was hugely out-assisting Robertson at LB. In fact in some games Patterson seemed our only attacking threat.

All I have seen with him is odd little moments in games from him, I'm more than willing to give him some time to show something but I'm not convinced.

 

[blueboy72]

I think we could if we wanted to. We are 32m in profit in the past 2 years, mostly last season with the unspent Gordon money. We will have 60m after Kean. If we sell and move on a few unneeded players the club could spend 75m while still being net positive on player trading. Considering the pandemic should no longer be effecting finances, I would think that would put the club net positive on the books as well.

We spent something like 70
Last summer with maybe 25mil actually went out the club.

So we could do that again and let’s not forget anything we spend after July 1st is in the accounts for 12 Months and if need be we can sell in jan or the following summer, before July 1st to
Balance the books

 

[Lanolin]

So let’s never sign any youngsters again then and close the academy. We haven’t got 100’s of millions to spend any more so have to take punts. On young players with potential, they will make mistakes and need to learn and grow, who knew, what a bizzare take your post is.

Even are experienced players make plenty of mistakes that cost us goals. Pickford had done, Coleman I’d guess has made 30/40 mistakes leading to goals in his Everton career, he made 4 or 5 last season. Digne was part of the French World Cup winning squad and cost us a lot of goals. Gana has made 2/3 mistakes since dyche walked in.

Branthwaite made a huge mistake v Brentford last season marking Toney, he’s having a very good season in Holland, but should we sell him, because I guarantee if he plays next season he will cost us a few goals. Do you expect him to be Franco Baresi at 20yrs old

As for Patterson he’s played 13 league games for us and has actually had a few good defensive performances Imo, away to Leeds
Early this season, up against Harrison defended against him very well.

I don't think it's a particularly bizarre post to be honest. I don't necessarily agree with him, but I can see what he means. Patterson has been a massive disappointment since he came in, I don't think there's any disputing that. We were absolutely desperate for a decent right back and the lad we brought in has only managed 11 starts in 14 months, looking pretty underwhelming in some of them. Some of that is obviously down to injuries, and time is on his side, but I don't think it's a massive leap to think we might need to bring somebody in in the summer (if we stay up). I agree with you that he needs games in order to develop, but I'm not that sure he's going to get them here at the moment - it's a bit of a chicken and egg situation.

 

[blueboy72]

I don't think it's a particularly bizarre post to be honest. I don't necessarily agree with him, but I can see what he means. Patterson has been a massive disappointment since he came in, I don't think there's any disputing that. We were absolutely desperate for a decent right back and the lad we brought in has only managed 11 starts in 14 months, looking pretty underwhelming in some of them. Some of that is obviously down to injuries, and time is on his side, but I don't think it's a massive leap to think we might need to bring somebody in in the summer (if we stay up). I agree with you that he needs games in order to develop, but I'm not that sure he's going to get them here at the moment - it's a bit of a chicken and egg situation.

Im Sorry but using the word disappointment for a kid who’s played 13 games is ridiculous. Yes you can say that for his injuries, but not his performances, what do you expect from a kid coming into a relegation fodder squad. Like I pointed out Coleman is still making mistakes and he’s not the only one, people raving about Keane and he’s been at fault for some goals and has only just been back in the team.

There’s people on the site who still haven’t given up on Tom Davies and he’s played 160 games.

If you’re making judgments after 13 games,
You’d have given up on most of the 80’s team, including southall who went out on loan after making 26 appearances for the first team

 

[Simon Buttle]

I don't think it's a particularly bizarre post to be honest. I don't necessarily agree with him, but I can see what he means. Patterson has been a massive disappointment since he came in, I don't think there's any disputing that. We were absolutely desperate for a decent right back and the lad we brought in has only managed 11 starts in 14 months, looking pretty underwhelming in some of them. Some of that is obviously down to injuries, and time is on his side, but I don't think it's a massive leap to think we might need to bring somebody in in the summer (if we stay up). I agree with you that he needs games in order to develop, but I'm not that sure he's going to get them here at the moment - it's a bit of a chicken and egg situation.

I'm more than willing to give Patterson some time to show what he has got but so far other than a few brief bursts of pace on the ball I don't think he has really shown anything to be getting excited about tbh. I'm also very concerned he has had 3 reasonably serious injuries all in the same season at such a young age, Is it a sign of things to come? The last thing we need is yet another injury prone player. Also I read something the other day that was saying Dyche wants a smaller, fitter squad that he knows he can rely on. As I said previously I hope he comes good but I'm not convinced tbh. Also Dyche is not exactly known for his work with the promoting and development of younger players which itself is a possible concern as I don't think any of us want to see a squad filled with the likes of Che Adams or Antonio or those ageing final payday types.

 

[Lanolin]

Im Sorry but using the word disappointment for a kid who’s played 13 games is ridiculous. Yes you can say that for his injuries, but not his performances, what do you expect from a kid coming into a relegation fodder squad. Like I pointed out Coleman is still making mistakes and he’s not the only one, people raving about Keane and he’s been at fault for some goals and has only just been back in the team.

There’s people on the site who still haven’t given up on Tom Davies and he’s played 160 games.

If you’re making judgments after 13 games,
You’d have given up on most of the 80’s team, including southall who went out on loan after making 26 appearances for the first team

Well firstly I'm quite clearly not making a judgement on him in the long run. What i'm saying is that I think he needs games in order to develop into a proper quality player, but i'm not sure he's going to get them here. It's not his fault he's had injuries, but they've meant that he's missed a lot of football. I think we're going to need another full back in the summer (assuming we stay up) and personally i'm not sure that he's done enough - or stayed fit for long enough - to suggest that we should be looking at someone who will just be playing second fiddle to him. Also a lot of people obviously want Branthwaite starting next year, and it's difficult to see Dyche wanting 2 of his back 4 to be massively inexperienced.

He has been a disappointment so far, I honestly don't think that's controversial in the slightest. It doesn't mean he won't turn out to be a great signing in the long run, but I don't think anyone believed when we signed him that he wouldn't have cemented himself as first choice right back by the end of this season and it looks extremely unlikely now that he will have. I'm not slating him at all, just saying that things haven't worked out for him so far and I'm 100% certain he'd agree with that.

 

[Swartzy]

I like the look of Patterson, I like the look of Garner, both have come in young, neither has had many minutes on the pitch and both have suffered bad injuries.
No one can really judge on either player yet, tho admittedly I've already said my thoughts on Garner before.

Why has today suddenly become the Patterson 'write off' day.

These are 2 lads that could be our future.
Give them both a season ( injury free ) before writing them off.

I think a few people will be eating there words after that...

 

[EFC_FRANCIS]

I like the look of Patterson, I like the look of Garner, both have come in young, neither has had many minutes on the pitch and both have suffered bad injuries.
No one can really judge on either player yet, tho admittedly I've already said my thoughts on Garner before.

Why has today suddenly become the Patterson 'write off' day.

These are 2 lads that could be our future.
Give them both a season ( injury free ) before writing them off.

I think a few people will be eating there words after that...

Don't think anyone's written them off but both transfers haven't worked out at all to this point which given where we are in the league is quite important.

 

[Neiler]

I think we could if we wanted to. We are 32m in profit in the past 2 years, mostly last season with the unspent Gordon money. We will have 60m after Kean. If we sell and move on a few unneeded players the club could spend 75m while still being net positive on player trading. Considering the pandemic should no longer be effecting finances, I would think that would put the club net positive on the books as well.

Doesn't work like that unfortunately mate, net spend based on fees coming in and out isn't realistic.

Here's why, our last official loss £120 mill, largely driven by wages and amortisation. Likely this or next week we are going to post a loss of £60-70 mill - up to June 22. These losses in real terms eat into any revenue or savings coming into the club i.e. transfer fees.

This year 23, we are probably back in profit, but not because the club has improved its financial situation once and for all. But mainly because we never spent the Gordon and Kean money in this financial year, so that cover a loss of somewhere i think of 35 - 45 million this year 22/23. That's the financial picture.

Now to look at profit and sustainability, we can loose £105 million over three seasons - clearly we are at the pin of our collar with that when you analyse our losses over the three year (four years averaged for Covid). So not only do we not have the revenue, we also have a profit and sustainability ceiling and what we can actually spend and stay within the limits.

The good thing is, if as i suspect we post a profit this year (23)- it creates and posts a very good year and wiggle room in our three year profit and sustainability ledger - the best we have had in a long long time.

I suspect our budget will likely be the difference between our loss for the year (45 mill odd) vs income Gordon fee & Kean - but its a very tight wage and amortisation celling we have as to what we can take on to our books as costs without posting bigger losses.

Our budget wont be anywhere near 90 mill in my opinion - nor should it be - or we have learned nothing.

 

[Lanolin]

Doesn't work like that unfortunately mate, net spend based on fees coming in and out isn't realistic.

Here's why, our last official loss £120 mill, largely driven by wages and amortisation. Likely this or next week we are going to post a loss of £60-70 mill - up to June 22. These losses in real terms eat into any revenue or savings coming into the club i.e. transfer fees.

This year 23, we are probably back in profit, but not because the club has improved its financial situation once and for all. But mainly because we never spent the Gordon and Kean money in this financial year, so that cover a loss of somewhere i think of 35 - 45 million this year 22/23. That's the financial picture.

Now to look at profit and sustainability, we can loose £105 million over three seasons - clearly we are at the pin of our collar with that when you analyse our losses over the three year (four years averaged for Covid). So not only do we not have the revenue, we also have a profit and sustainability ceiling and what we can actually spend and stay within the limits.

The good thing is, if as i suspect we post a profit this year (23)- it creates and posts a very good year and wiggle room in our three year profit and sustainability ledger - the best we have had in a long long time.

I suspect our budget will likely be the difference between our loss for the year (45 mill odd) vs income Gordon fee & Kean - but its a very tight wage and amortisation celling we have as to what we can take on to our books as costs without posting bigger losses.

Our budget wont be anywhere near 90 mill in my opinion - nor should it be - or we have learned nothing.

I wouldn’t necessarily say it shouldn’t be. Realistically £90m is barely enough to have us looking like a top half team in the real world so if it was possible we definitely should do it. I don’t think it’s possible though, I would imagine it’s another year of signing bargain basement players, selling someone for a decent fee, and hoping that we can just about keep our heads above water next season. What a brave new era moshiri ushered in.

 

[Goat]

Hypothetically take the full Gordon £45mil and £28mil for Kean.

Theres £73mil.

Players like Mina who are ooc leave and others like Holgate + Maupay are sold. Others who should be sold like Iwobi and Keane remain.

We then have a circa £90mil transfer budget and a decent chunk for wages.

If we used that on a Centre forward, attacking midfielder and a right winger thats an avg of £30mil per player.

If LB and RB positions are added then were looking at avg £18mil per player.

Less players should equal higher quality. Not always the case of course...but it may have brought us better than Maupay.

The Gordon and Kean sales will be consumed by the operating loses we make each year.

9 days till the club has to publish the accounts.

Theres gotta be a reason they are delaying it this long.

 

[Neiler]

I wouldn’t necessarily say it shouldn’t be. Realistically £90m is barely enough to have us looking like a top half team in the real world so if it was possible we definitely should do it. I don’t think it’s possible though, I would imagine it’s another year of signing bargain basement players, selling someone for a decent fee, and hoping that we can just about keep our heads above water next season. What a brave new era moshiri ushered in.

Conceptually yes mate, 300 million is even better then 90, should we spend it, no, we tried spending beyond our means before, over extended ourselves, invested in few of any worth and here we are - those are the risks though, if you follow that strategy.

In reality though we need to move away from a model of being dependent on investment, without Moshiri writing blank cheques we cant afford to meet our outgoings. We need to get away from that and develop a self sustaining model. That will include a head shift, instead of dropping 45 mill of the Gylfis of thus world, we have to look for the Mitomas or Martinellis, we need to aim for the Brighton and Brentford’s of this world right now and over the next few yeara and not the City’s or maybe even Spurs, it’s a ladder to be climbed.

It’s like this now, money helps but won’t make you competitive at the top - it’s irrelevant up there in a way you are competing against sovereign wealth funds. So ultimately we shouldn’t over extend ourselves financially again. Billionaires are poor in the PL now.

For us you need a sustainable financial model of investment, but also culture and philosophy in footballing objectives.

 

[Lanolin]

Conceptually yes mate, 300 million is even better then 90, should we spend it, no, we tried spending beyond our means before, over extended ourselves, invested in few of any worth and here we are - those are the risks though, if you follow that strategy.

In reality though we need to move away from a model of being dependent on investment, without Moshiri writing blank cheques we cant afford to meet our outgoings. We need to get away from that and develop a self sustaining model. That will include a head shift, instead of dropping 45 mill of the Gylfis of thus world, we have to look for the Mitomas or Martinellis, we need to aim for the Brighton and Brentford’s of this world right now and over the next few yeara and not the City’s or maybe even Spurs, it’s a ladder to be climbed.

It’s like this now, money helps but won’t make you competitive at the top - it’s irrelevant up there in a way you are competing against sovereign wealth funds. So ultimately we shouldn’t over extend ourselves financially again. Billionaires are poor in the PL now.

For us you need a sustainable financial model of investment, but also culture and philosophy in footballing objectives.

Yes I tried to make that distinction clear in my post. We shouldn’t spend beyond our means, obviously. I believed you were suggesting that even if we were able to we shouldn’t spend, because it didn’t work when we did if before. I disagree with that idea. There’s nothing wrong with spending loads of money on players if you can genuinely afford it. The fact we messed it up doesn’t make it a bad strategy overall is the point I was making. If we are able to spend £90m without getting in trouble then we absolutely should do it, but we should spend it on good players who fit a plan rather than just pissing it up the wall.

 

[Neiler]

Yes I tried to make that distinction clear in my post. We shouldn’t spend beyond our means, obviously. I believed you were suggesting that even if we were able to we shouldn’t spend, because it didn’t work when we did if before. I disagree with that idea. There’s nothing wrong with spending loads of money on players if you can genuinely afford it. The fact we messed it up doesn’t make it a bad strategy overall is the point I was making. If we are able to spend £90m without getting in trouble then we absolutely should do it, but we should spend it on good players who fit a plan rather than just pissing it up the wall.

I think we are basically making the same point.

Spend away, if we can afford it, we can’t though, so we shouldn’t, we shouldn’t spend so significantly beyond our means again.

I disagree in the sense, i don’t think it’s that binary, money - good, not money bad - I think investment is becoming more irrelevant with the advent of the sovereign wealth funds. The answer isn’t just investment in my opinion. The club won’t be out if it’s dysfunction, until it get back to be close to being self sufficient ent again.

You need money of course, but you need skill, culture, philosophy, objectives and purpose. Investment creates its own problems as we know all to well, it made us lazy, uncoordinated and created unhealthy dynamics in the club.

Investment is part of it, but not all of it.

 

[Lanolin]

Spend away, if we can afford it, we can’t though, so we shouldn’t, we shouldn’t spend so significantly beyond our means again.

Yes I think we’ve established that mate.