I think it'll be 4 points at most.
It's not a truly independent appeal board and the Prem won't allow more than half the punishment to be restored IMO.
The bold for me is the heart of the whole thing. If this were a truly independent panel, it's hard to see how we wouldn't get all 10 points back, because of the many, many irregularities on the league's part throughout this whole process.
But there's just no way this panel is truly independent. And given that, think about it from their perspective:
They almost have to give something back to keep the government off their backs. But they can't give all 10 back without appearing so weak that it essentially ends the whole P&S enterprise as a functioning deterrent to clubs in the future.
So it seems to me that - from their perspective - the only way forward is to split the difference and give back some but not all of the points. Which also serves the secondary benefit - again, from their perspective - of keeping the option open to hit us with another deduction for the second charge. And we end up pretty much right where we are now, when it's all said and done.