How many pts needed for Safety

How many points gets is safe

  • 34-35pts

    Votes: 4 1.3%
  • 36pts

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • 37pts

    Votes: 15 4.8%
  • 38pts

    Votes: 91 29.1%
  • 39pts+

    Votes: 202 64.5%

  • Total voters
    313
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I'm looking at Burnley and thinking they aren't winning again this season.

We need to put this to bed today and against Watford.
 
Im seeing Burnley and Leeds finishing on 38 but their goal difference will be worse than ours by the end, so 38 it is.

A win today and we are safe, I think.
 


Still think we need to be cautious. The absolute goal is safety, the practical goal is safety with a game to spare at least. That raises the stakes ever so slightly. I don't think Burnley or Leeds see it in those terms.

Worst case scenario for me is Leeds + 6 points Burnley +4 points. That's worst case so unlikely.

On that basis 39 points is sufficient maybe even 38 on GD. I'd be disappointed with 6 points from us in the run-in but if we stay up we can leave the recriminations aside for a while.

If we win today I'm 85% certain we stay up. I don't think we will though.
 
I can see Burnley losing next 2 but maybe win the final one, so i will say its 38 points at most, but one surprise result can change that pretty easily
 

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