Article on whether Everton can make top 4 by Martin Laurence

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http://www.theguardian.com/football...rton-top-four-premier-league-champions-season

There were high-scoring affairs and some scintillating attacking football in the Premier League this weekend. Liverpool stole the headlines on Saturday with their comprehensive 4-1 win over title favourites Manchester City and Spurs deservedly drew the plaudits on Sunday for dismantling a West Ham side that have excelled on the road by the same 4-1 scoreline.

The two clubs have been tipped as favourites to fight it out for a place in the top four following Chelsea’s dismal start to the season, but it was Everton who secured the biggest winning margin of the weekend. A 4-0 win over the bottom club in the league may not seem overly impressive but Aston Villa had not lost a game by more than two goals before Saturday’s encounter.

While Leicester City must also be considered in the running, given that they sit top of the league, Everton are perhaps the most realistic hopefuls of the dark horses to qualify for the Champions League. Currently ranking as eighth favourite with most bookmakers to claim a place in the top four, Roberto Martínez’s team are being underrated right now.

They, along with Leicester City, have no European football to contend with, and while Everton sit eight points – and six places – behind Claudio Ranieri’s men, they have a favourable run of fixtures over the festive period, when the league leaders may struggle. Their only defeats this season have come at the hands of Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United, and – while an inability to beat the teams around them may prove costly – they are playing some of the most entertaining football in the league.
That was the case at the weekend. Aston Villa were powerless to resist Everton’s one-touch attacking football. Their first, third and fourth goals all involved excellent first-time passes in the final third, which is not only the sign of a side packed with technical ability but one that is high in confidence.

Ross Barkley, Gerard Deulofeu and Romelu Lukaku were all instrumental to the victory once again, with the two goalscorers securing our highest ratings of the weekend, with Barkley earning a 9.16 and Lukaku producing a 9.29. All three players were involved in Everton’s superb opener before linking up directly for the devastating fourth. Such effective combination play has ensured that only Leicester and Manchester City have scored more goals this season, with all 24 of the Toffees strikes coming from open play – three more than any other team.

With 15 of their goals coming from set pieces last season, there are encouraging signs to read from such figures. Just nine shy of their entire tally from open play in 2014-15 (33), Everton’s decisiveness in possession, particularly in advanced areas, has seen a marked improvement. They have been criticised for their slow build-up play under Martínez, but the manager has encouraged greater variety and freedom this season, aided by the form of Barkley (7.63 season rating) and Lukaku (7.52 rating), who had disappointing campaigns by comparison last time around, with ratings of 6.80 and 6.77 respectively.
Moreover, the fact that Everton are yet to score from a set piece can be largely attributed to the absence of Leighton Baines, who looks set for a return to action in the coming weeks. The left-back registered nine assists last season – four more than any of his team-mates – and has been pivotal to their style of play for years. While Brendan Galloway has stepped up admirably Baines’ comeback will offer Martínez even more options in the final third.

However, the key to any sustained Champions League challenge will revolve around the fitness of Lukaku. The striker became only the fifth player in Premier League history to reach the 50-goal mark before his 23rd birthday at the weekend, which highlights that he has been able to avoid serious injuries since a move to England. Only Jamie Vardy (14) has had a direct hand in more goals in the league than the 22-year old (13), whose four assists are important to a side that look to link passes in and around the penalty box. He is on course to break the 20-goal barrier for the first time in his career and double his tally of 10 goals from last season. If Lukaku can maintain his current form, Everton have a great chance of remaining in the hunt for the Champions League.

Their fixtures to round up the first half of the season read Bournemouth (a), Crystal Palace (h), Norwich (a), Leicester (h), Newcastle (a) and Stoke (h). They will consider themselves favourites in all of those games. If they pick up the points expected of them between now and the end of the year, expect the odds on a top-four finish to tumble.
 

I still think a mid-table position of about 7th or 8th is far more likely. We would need to get a couple of results against the top teams, as well as win most if not all of the type of fixtures we have between now and new year in order to clinch 4th. Just can't see it.
 
Good piece that, an honest assessment backed up with the stats to justify it.

We're high on confidence at the minute and it's showing in our play. The Martinez style requires confidence for it to be effective and at present the lads are brimming with it, and we're playing some quality football.

The next run of fixtures look enticing, but we'll always have "Everton that" in the back of our minds as supporters lol
 

Don't think Europa will have as big an impact this season as Liverpool seem to only play at home after their games whilst their group is such low standard they've largely just fielded kids.
 
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