Are we over-achieving or under-achieving?

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Or of course just breaking even!?

I was looking at BBC's predictions for the weekend, Mark Lawrenson's to be precise. He reckons that we'll turn Reading on Saturday, which I would like to think we will!

However, he has done predictions all season long and if his predictions were all correct, then we would sit 4th in the league, mind you Arsenal would also be second and QPR would sit 7th (although it's clear that both them teams are under-achieving considering their resources)! For a red to be predicting that it got me wondering. Are we actually under-achieving in the league? I've always thought we've been breaking even at most and at times actually over-achieving.

It is worth being noted however that Lawro talks absolute nonsense most of the time.

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We're probably where we deserve to be. It's probably fair to say that when we're flying we're over-achieving, whilst when we're stinking we're under achieving.

The same with Jelavic. When he arrived he was probably doing better than normal, as were the likes of Osman and Fellaini at the start of the season.

Whilst I wouldn't go as far as say luck, but circumstances do play a major part. Sometimes they go in your favour and you do better than you'd expect, other times they go against you and you suffer a bad trot. Neither is a true reflection of where you'll be. The league generally evens itself out over the season. Cups of course can be different (ala Bradford)
 
Just slightly punching above our weight in that we're holding off Liverpool. There's only the top five and them that should reasonably be above us.
It'd be unacceptable to finish behind any of the other teams in this league.
 
Jesus tonight QPR the only side in the league with goal difference better than +3. I didn't realise his predictions were that bad.
 

I think we are more or less where we deserve to be, a few years ago I would have said we were easily punching above our weight, however for the past year or two I would say we have settled down a lot more and are were we deserve to be. I think if Jelavic had been scoring throughout the season, we would have been further up the table and could then have said we were punching above our weight, so in a way I can see the scoring drought for Jelavic keeping some of the wilder expectations in check for the time being.
 
If it were a round of golf, we'd be currently -1 going in to Hole 15, but we've just broken a little finger and fully expect to finish over par after the 18.
 
Just slightly punching above our weight in that we're holding off Liverpool. There's only the top five and them that should reasonably be above us.
It'd be unacceptable to finish behind any of the other teams in this league.

Unacceptable maybe a tad melodramatic?

Look at how much Newcastle, Sunderland, Stoke, Villa etc spend on their squads both in wages and fees.
 

If you look at the quality of our 1st 11 and we took away injuries, suspension, drop in form then we are easily good enough for top 4.

So in essence it is the fundamental idea of a squad game that is failing us and I think as a squad we are slightly above where we should be as some of the benches we have had are pitifully inexperienced/lacking quality.

So in conclusion we are probably breaking even.
 
Unacceptable maybe a tad melodramatic?

Look at how much Newcastle, Sunderland, Stoke, Villa etc spend on their squads both in wages and fees.

it's players that achieve success not money. look at the players those teams have at their disposal, from every team we'd say ah we'd take about 1 or 2, but no more. davek's right in saying it would be unnaceptable to finish below teams like stoke and sunderland, just because they overpay on gash players like jerome and titus bramble, doesn't mean we should finish below them.
 
....I think a very good benchmark is the handicap list published at the start of each season as it reflects expectancy. Each team is given a handicap mark, e.g. Man City are off scratch, Man Utd +2 points. West Brom will be leading and take some catching because they are punching above their weight, whilst the likes of Villa and rs will be near the bottom.
 
About right I'd say, maybe slightly over achieving. The 1st XI is pretty good without being fantastic and when they are clicking would easily put us into the top 6. Unfortunately no team clicks all the time, and it's more about how you manage the lean times. Good teams eek out results even when playing badly and have depth to freshen up a stale team. We don't and are seeing the fruits of this at the moment. I think we have one of the best teams that we have had for a few years, but we will always struggle to take that next step. In terms of financial outlay i think we are doing a fantastic job in comparison to some of the other big spenders.
 
The fact that we are 6th in the league and slightly over-achieving speaks volumes when you take into account the money we've spent and the piss-take that was January. Under this board, reasonably speaking, we shouldn't be where we are. Let alone having been there for years on end. The tiny squad has actually been utilised pretty well given the awful injury/form problems to some of our key players.

We are under-achieving on the silverware front though. It's about time we added to the cabinet. I really hope we do as I think Moyes and certain players in the squad deserve something more than pats on the back off the media and opposition fans. That's not even mentioning the fact that this remains the 4th most successful club in the country and 18 years is too long.
 

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