68% of teams in the top four after 10 games have finished there.

[Chang Elephant]

last three games of the season is pretty much six points guaranteed then and see what we can nick off Chelsea

 

[tasslehoff]

Prove our metal over the next 3 or 4 games and I will believe....

Mettle

Spelling police checking in.

 

[BoysInBlue]

It might be better to ask how often all 4 teams ended up finishing in the top 4. The % will be very low I would say.

He's already told you in his first post - 68%.

It might not be a 'pass' in exam terms, but it's not far off happening 3/4 of the time.

68% of the last 10 years is nearly 7 out of the last 10 years it is happened.

 

[steken1]

Look at it another way.

Each year 3 of the top 4 (that's 75%, but close enough) after ten games go on to finish there. At least one teams drops out, on average. Which one of the current top 4 are most likely not to finish there? It's us, all day and all night.

It might be better to ask how often all 4 teams ended up finishing in the top 4. The % will be very low I would say.

32% is the percentage it doesn't happen.

Whats important for me is that we are typically strong finishers. It's a shame we don't have the cushion we deserve over the chasing pack but we know we will be in with a great chance if we're still there or abouts in Jan.

One of my biggest criticisms of Moyles has been his inability to cure our slow starts. He deserves a lot of credit for the results we've had and the way we got them. Hopefully we will tighten up a bit at the back and continue getting points.

 

[Brennan]

He's already told you in his first post - 68%.

It might not be a 'pass' in exam terms, but it's not far off happening 3/4 of the time.

68% of the last 10 years is nearly 7 out of the last 10 years it is happened.

Nah that's wrong. It's 68% of the teams. In other words in the last 10 years the same four being there after 10 games and at the end of the season could have never happened, one of them could have dropped out every single year and it would be 75%, then if you had 2 drop out one year it would be around 68%.

What he's asking is different.

 

[paulbefc]

75% of all statistics are meaningless, 9 out of 10 people know that.

Brennan dislikes this.

 

[Brennan]

Brennan dislikes this.

A better stat would be how many teams over the last ten years who have been fourth after ten games remained top four or higher, because adding the other three teams complicates things when it's pretty nailed on at least two of them will finish top three.

The sad fact is that in the last 10 years there have only been about four occasions when the fourth placed team after 10 are fourth or higher after 38. You'd have to wait until 15 games to really get an idea of where we'll finish. Bolton were 4th after 10 games a few years in a row...