Champions

[catcherintherye]

I think it will probably be a bit higher. Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool and City all look good and I think once everyone moves to twice a week you will see the larger squads pull away from the field and I wouldnt be surprised to see any or all of those teams get 30 plus from 36 points Dec - Jan. That will set up a high return

I would be amazed, a season after 62 points for CL if those 4 teams all get 75+. Especially when City Liverpool are on the brink via injuries before a massive fixture pile up.

Have a look at Spurs next 6 games as well. Let's see where they are then before we start saying they will be 75+. Theres more chance 75+ wins the title than ends up 5th IMO.

 

[number4.]

I would be amazed, a season after 62 points for CL if those 4 teams all get 75+. Especially when City Liverpool are on the brink via injuries before a massive fixture pile up.

Have a look at Spurs next 6 games as well. Let's see where they are then before we start saying they will be 75+. Theres more chance 75+ wins the title than ends up 5th IMO.

You could be right and it’s only guess work. I think it will go the other way; bigger squads will win games at a canter once everyone plays twice a week and that platform of 30 points from 36 will see a high top 4

I think last year was the freak tbh, but we are in unprecedented times

 

[the golden visionary]

1/4 of the season gone and 4 points of top.

If we keep this up we could end up with 60+ points which is a good season for a squad in transition

 

[derek duvall]

Those 4 look the best squads so far. Would be good if we can compete for 5th and 6th with Arsenal and United, that would be a huge step forward for us.

I agree. Not sure about Arsenal though. They're awful under Arteta

 

[catcherintherye]

You could be right and it’s only guess work. I think it will go the other way; bigger squads will win games at a canter once everyone plays twice a week and that platform of 30 points from 36 will see a high top 4

I think last year was the freak tbh, but we are in unprecedented times

Well a couple of points.The conditions that led to last season being a "freak" are further heightened this season.More games, shorter time frame etc. Also many of those top 6 clubs still have relatively poorer managers and haven't been able to recruit how they would like too. The trend line was also leading to that conclusion too. It was going down season on season.That tends to imply the opposite of a freak and more of a continuation of trend.

I mean yes, if they all win 10 of the next 12 then that could be reviewed. I am highly doubtful they do though. City and Liverpool are decimated with injuries and playing many players (Robertson, Fabinho etc) when theya re barely over muscular injuries. Chelsea look erratic to me and are oly 2 points better off than us having had better fixtures and Spurs look solid but again have had very favourable fixtures. We will see.

I see it being very open this season, and continuing to be for some time to come actually. Sides like United, Arsenal etc have done a damage to themselves which will not be easily resolved. I think I said last season, once you take Aubamyang out of that team they are average. He has lost a bit of form and it shows.

The financial losses all of the top 6 will show are going to be eye watering. Levy is talking in terms of "irreversible damage" unless all fans are allowed back (which they won't be any time soon). So even if this is hyperbole, and you downgrade to reversible damage, it will take time.

If I was looking on from a business perspective, I'd say most of the top 6 teams would go bust. Debt to turnover is going to get too high when access to liquity and credit will get harder. Many of them have long term contracts to honour too which are hefty. I think this desperation is whats driving the clearly pie in the sky ideas of a super league (clearly there's no funding in place, or even a loan to underwrite it). Of course football operates slightly differently to most business, so it's unlikely to go down that route, but quite soon there will be a serious reckoning.

Long story short, I think some of the changes this season will prevent 4 teams being 75+ points. Few of them look likely to get that currently. In the medium term that will continue, as the economic damage starts to bite. Lots of opportunities will abound.

 

[catcherintherye]

1/4 of the season gone and 4 points of top.

If we keep this up we could end up with 60+ points which is a good season for a squad in transition

I think we are on for 62/3 points given our start, which lets face it would be very good and may actually be enough for a top 4 finish. Almost certainly for a top 6 finish. There will be spells where we lose runs of games, but as long as we win enough that will tide us over.

European qualification and the uplift of sponsorship and players we can therein attract will be very important.

 

[number4.]

Well a couple of points.The conditions that led to last season being a "freak" are further heightened this season.More games, shorter time frame etc. Also many of those top 6 clubs still have relatively poorer managers and haven't been able to recruit how they would like too. The trend line was also leading to that conclusion too. It was going down season on season.That tends to imply the opposite of a freak and more of a continuation of trend.

I mean yes, if they all win 10 of the next 12 then that could be reviewed. I am highly doubtful they do though. City and Liverpool are decimated with injuries and playing many players (Robertson, Fabinho etc) when theya re barely over muscular injuries. Chelsea look erratic to me and are oly 2 points better off than us having had better fixtures and Spurs look solid but again have had very favourable fixtures. We will see.

I see it being very open this season, and continuing to be for some time to come actually. Sides like United, Arsenal etc have done a damage to themselves which will not be easily resolved. I think I said last season, once you take Aubamyang out of that team they are average. He has lost a bit of form and it shows.

The financial losses all of the top 6 will show are going to be eye watering. Levy is talking in terms of "irreversible damage" unless all fans are allowed back (which they won't be any time soon). So even if this is hyperbole, and you downgrade to reversible damage, it will take time.

If I was looking on from a business perspective, I'd say most of the top 6 teams would go bust. Debt to turnover is going to get too high when access to liquity and credit will get harder. Many of them have long term contracts to honour too which are hefty. I think this desperation is whats driving the clearly pie in the sky ideas of a super league (clearly there's no funding in place, or even a loan to underwrite it). Of course football operates slightly differently to most business, so it's unlikely to go down that route, but quite soon there will be a serious reckoning.

Long story short, I think some of the changes this season will prevent 4 teams being 75+ points. Few of them look likely to get that currently. In the medium term that will continue, as the economic damage starts to bite. Lots of opportunities will abound.

yep - all very cogent points few things I would say....

Heightened freak season could go the other way. I have argued on numerous occasions that I think the bigger squads will pull away when it goes to two games a week, we have no idea how say Southampton will cope with that, but we have seen with the exception of City to date, the others have coped. It could end up levelling the playing field with a lower (flatter) points score, but I think it will go the other way.

Finances - Irrelevant to two of the four and for the other two I think that will really pinch next year. I would suspect Salah, Kane, Mane Son etc might be available if anyone has the cash.

 

[number4.]

Well a couple of points.The conditions that led to last season being a "freak" are further heightened this season.More games, shorter time frame etc. Also many of those top 6 clubs still have relatively poorer managers and haven't been able to recruit how they would like too. The trend line was also leading to that conclusion too. It was going down season on season.That tends to imply the opposite of a freak and more of a continuation of trend.

I mean yes, if they all win 10 of the next 12 then that could be reviewed. I am highly doubtful they do though. City and Liverpool are decimated with injuries and playing many players (Robertson, Fabinho etc) when theya re barely over muscular injuries. Chelsea look erratic to me and are oly 2 points better off than us having had better fixtures and Spurs look solid but again have had very favourable fixtures. We will see.

I see it being very open this season, and continuing to be for some time to come actually. Sides like United, Arsenal etc have done a damage to themselves which will not be easily resolved. I think I said last season, once you take Aubamyang out of that team they are average. He has lost a bit of form and it shows.

The financial losses all of the top 6 will show are going to be eye watering. Levy is talking in terms of "irreversible damage" unless all fans are allowed back (which they won't be any time soon). So even if this is hyperbole, and you downgrade to reversible damage, it will take time.

If I was looking on from a business perspective, I'd say most of the top 6 teams would go bust. Debt to turnover is going to get too high when access to liquity and credit will get harder. Many of them have long term contracts to honour too which are hefty. I think this desperation is whats driving the clearly pie in the sky ideas of a super league (clearly there's no funding in place, or even a loan to underwrite it). Of course football operates slightly differently to most business, so it's unlikely to go down that route, but quite soon there will be a serious reckoning.

Long story short, I think some of the changes this season will prevent 4 teams being 75+ points. Few of them look likely to get that currently. In the medium term that will continue, as the economic damage starts to bite. Lots of opportunities will abound.

yep - all very cogent points few things I would say....

Heightened freak season could go the other way. I have argued on numerous occasions that I think the bigger squads will pull away when it goes to two games a week, we have no idea how say Southampton will cope with that, but we have seen with the exception of City to date, the others have coped. It could end up levelling the playing field with a lower (flatter) points score, but I think it will go the other way.

Finances - Irrelevant to two of the four and for the other two I think that will really pinch next year. I would suspect Salah, Kane, Mane Son etc might be available if anyone has the cash.

 

[catcherintherye]

yep - all very cogent points few things I would say....

Heightened freak season could go the other way. I have argued on numerous occasions that I think the bigger squads will pull away when it goes to two games a week, we have no idea how say Southampton will cope with that, but we have seen with the exception of City to date, the others have coped. It could end up levelling the playing field with a lower (flatter) points score, but I think it will go the other way.

Finances - Irrelevant to two of the four and for the other two I think that will really pinch next year. I would suspect Salah, Kane, Mane Son etc might be available if anyone has the cash.

On each
1) The principle you have is correct. I can't argue against that. However I would add in 2 counters. Firstly that a fair amount of damage has "been done" to many of those top teams. In some it shows up in injuries already, with others it's players already pushed to the red zone. In most cases I sense you have both. So we don't all enter this period equally. Most of the bottom 14 have more rested players. If you look at us, Davies, Gordon, Nknonkou, Bernard, Iwobi, Sigurdsson are fresh, have not been injured at all and have been getting miles into the legs training each week.

Secondly it's worth saying that all teams are playing 2 per week, and the aforemtioned teams have not been coping with it well either. I saw City/Liverpool have had 15/16 injuries. So it's not like they are fantastic at getting beyond it. What's likely is all teams now start getting injuries. However look at City and Liverpool's benchs, they are left with 3 outfield senior players. Another net 6 injuries (which is a plausible number) and they are into kids. To me that has a bigger drop off in performance.

Essentially weare not all entering what will be a hellacious phase equally and given the chaos that this is going to bring, I suspect inconsistency wil be the consequence (as it has been thus far). I don't see 4 teams going on runs winning 10 from 12. The best chance they had of that was early in the season, pre Europe, after the initial rest. They didn't do it then.

2) Yes I agree. It will have a much more telling effect moving forward. However, these top teams tend to heavily refrsh their squads, either every season, or 2-3. While some did good business, outside of Chelsea I don't thinkany had the sort of recruitment you'd have normally expected, and needed to maintain position.
I mean there's an obvious cavaet, that Liverpool can probably drop off 20% and still win the league (which appears the most likely outcome, they get to say 78 points and win it).

There's medium term opportunities here though. United and Arsenal are teetering and while Spurs are in a good moment, when loans have to sgtart being repaid, there will be pressure.

 

[Rooney_Tunes]

On each
1) The principle you have is correct. I can't argue against that. However I would add in 2 counters. Firstly that a fair amount of damage has "been done" to many of those top teams. In some it shows up in injuries already, with others it's players already pushed to the red zone. In most cases I sense you have both. So we don't all enter this period equally. Most of the bottom 14 have more rested players. If you look at us, Davies, Gordon, Nknonkou, Bernard, Iwobi, Sigurdsson are fresh, have not been injured at all and have been getting miles into the legs training each week.

Secondly it's worth saying that all teams are playing 2 per week, and the aforemtioned teams have not been coping with it well either. I saw City/Liverpool have had 15/16 injuries. So it's not like they are fantastic at getting beyond it. What's likely is all teams now start getting injuries. However look at City and Liverpool's benchs, they are left with 3 outfield senior players. Another net 6 injuries (which is a plausible number) and they are into kids. To me that has a bigger drop off in performance.

Essentially weare not all entering what will be a hellacious phase equally and given the chaos that this is going to bring, I suspect inconsistency wil be the consequence (as it has been thus far). I don't see 4 teams going on runs winning 10 from 12. The best chance they had of that was early in the season, pre Europe, after the initial rest. They didn't do it then.

2) Yes I agree. It will have a much more telling effect moving forward. However, these top teams tend to heavily refrsh their squads, either every season, or 2-3. While some did good business, outside of Chelsea I don't thinkany had the sort of recruitment you'd have normally expected, and needed to maintain position.
I mean there's an obvious cavaet, that Liverpool can probably drop off 20% and still win the league (which appears the most likely outcome, they get to say 78 points and win it).

There's medium term opportunities here though. United and Arsenal are teetering and while Spurs are in a good moment, when loans have to sgtart being repaid, there will be pressure.

That's because he seldom runs, jumps or tackles; he does enjoy the odd point though...

 

[ForeverBlue92]

This league is all about fitness and pace these days.

Obviously you need quality but a team like Wolves, Leicester and Saints who can last the 90 minutes will fare much better than teams like us.

Fitness is a major issue and its baffling how the supposed werld class DOF hasn't addressed this with the club as to how these fitness staff we have seem to not be very good.

 

[barneygumble]

This league is all about fitness and pace these days.

Obviously you need quality but a team like Wolves, Leicester and Saints who can last the 90 minutes will fare much better than teams like us.

Fitness is a major issue and its baffling how the supposed werld class DOF hasn't addressed this with the club as to how these fitness staff we have seem to not be very good.

Lacked any pace in the centre of the park since right at the start of Arteta.

Always feel that will be our downfall, and usually is.

 

[catcherintherye]

This league is all about fitness and pace these days.

Obviously you need quality but a team like Wolves, Leicester and Saints who can last the 90 minutes will fare much better than teams like us.

Fitness is a major issue and its baffling how the supposed werld class DOF hasn't addressed this with the club as to how these fitness staff we have seem to not be very good.

I haven't seen Wolves the other night, but Leicester looked way off the pace to me the other night mate.

 

[Lanolin]

On each
1) The principle you have is correct. I can't argue against that. However I would add in 2 counters. Firstly that a fair amount of damage has "been done" to many of those top teams. In some it shows up in injuries already, with others it's players already pushed to the red zone. In most cases I sense you have both. So we don't all enter this period equally. Most of the bottom 14 have more rested players. If you look at us, Davies, Gordon, Nknonkou, Bernard, Iwobi, Sigurdsson are fresh, have not been injured at all and have been getting miles into the legs training each week.

Secondly it's worth saying that all teams are playing 2 per week, and the aforemtioned teams have not been coping with it well either. I saw City/Liverpool have had 15/16 injuries. So it's not like they are fantastic at getting beyond it. What's likely is all teams now start getting injuries. However look at City and Liverpool's benchs, they are left with 3 outfield senior players. Another net 6 injuries (which is a plausible number) and they are into kids. To me that has a bigger drop off in performance.

Essentially weare not all entering what will be a hellacious phase equally and given the chaos that this is going to bring, I suspect inconsistency wil be the consequence (as it has been thus far). I don't see 4 teams going on runs winning 10 from 12. The best chance they had of that was early in the season, pre Europe, after the initial rest. They didn't do it then.

2) Yes I agree. It will have a much more telling effect moving forward. However, these top teams tend to heavily refrsh their squads, either every season, or 2-3. While some did good business, outside of Chelsea I don't thinkany had the sort of recruitment you'd have normally expected, and needed to maintain position.
I mean there's an obvious cavaet, that Liverpool can probably drop off 20% and still win the league (which appears the most likely outcome, they get to say 78 points and win it).

There's medium term opportunities here though. United and Arsenal are teetering and while Spurs are in a good moment, when loans have to sgtart being repaid, there will be pressure.

The key really is whether the teams at the bottom pick up. Currently there's 3 teams who look very much like they could finish the season with 25 points or less. If they don't pick up then the points total at the top will be high because virtually all the good teams will have taken 18 points just off those 3 teams. It's rare that you get 3 absolute whipping boys in the same season but a quarter of the way through that looks like it could happen. Last season's relegated teams took 24 points off the top 5, the bottom clubs are going to have to improve a lot if they're going to do that this year.

 

[Dublin blue 75]

It pains me to say it but watching that lot on Sunday evening, they can still apply their 90 minutes of swarming the opposition and pressing from the front even when injuries affect their starting line-up. Currently, the title looks theirs to lose. In terms of competition, Leicester were very disappointing indeed and between Jonny Evans and Fuchs (both well the wrong side of 30), their defence is exposed to any kid of pace or width. Spurs, as mentioned, have had a kind run of fixtures and I dont see them sustaining their current lofty position.

Chelsea are an enigma, extremely talented in certain areas but maybe need this season to gel first. After that, who exactly is there to keep the German awake at night? Not a lot.