Everton Transfer Thread - Summer 2020

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It does take time. I think in the two years he's been here things have improved under Brands, but we had a first team coach who was very poor at managing games which did us in. Across the season under Carlo we probably get to 60 points under him (or post Silva). There will still be ups and downs but some improvement has been there.

We have to ultimately just give Ancelotti and probably Brands time. There's a new guy in the academy from Derby (which I'd say is a very smart move). But it wont be 1 window as you say. In 2015, Liverpool ended with 62 points, being 5-0 at half time to Stoke and a bit of a shambles. Within 4 years they'd added 50% to their points total to eventually go on to win the league. A similar return for us, gets us to 76 points, andin this season 3rd place. Thats the realistic ceiling, if we do things really well I think we can get to if we are patient. Liverpool did it in part by having an established DOF, a top manager and giving them time.

As for this summer, it may go to the wire. We would all rather it didn't, but it may have to. Players will start to become available into September and we could get some appeaing deals.

Im open minded on Brands and i do see the sense in patience and running the antivirus and the concept of value, there is very subtle evidence that looking at value that logic is evident in what he is doing. Thats looking at it from a pure business perspective.

Its the football decisions that concern me with Brands, i was thinking of outs and ins last summer - Lookman, Vasic, Idrissa, Henry, in Delph, Sibide, Gbamin (gets a pass), Iwobi and spending 30 mill net. Thats not good decision making for me, i would have preferred to stick with what we had to be honest. i also look at the Baines situation, we are in position were we are likely looking for or need a left back - there was a decision made on Robinson or Baines last year, 6 months later the guy was within a hairs breath of signing for Milan. Im prepared to give him time as i think patience and consistency is vital in successful football clubs, but i do find some of his decisions regressive, even if there is logic in value and i do think he overall has improved the value of the squad, by just buying younger players really and letting their contracts run.

Lets see what this summer brings, im neither all in or out on him at the moment.
 
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Im open minded on Brands and i do see the sense in patience and running the antivirus and the concept of value, there is very subtle evidence that looking at value that logic is evident in what he is doing. Thats looking at it from a pure business perspective.

Its the football decisions that concern me with Brands, i was thinking of outs and ins last summer - Lookman, Vasic, Idrissa, Henry, in Delph, Sibide, Gbamin (gets a pass), Iwobi and spending 30 mill net. Thats not good decision making for me, i would have preferred to stick with what we had to be honest. i also look at the Baines situation, we are in position were we are likely looking for or need a left back - there was a decision made on Robinson or Baines last year, 6 months later the guy was within a hairs breath of signing for Milan. Im prepared to give him time as i think patience and consistency is vital in successful football clubs, but i do find some of his decisions regressive, even if there is logic in value and i do think he overall has improved the value of the squad, by just buying younger players really and letting their contracts run.

Lets see what this summer brings, im neither all in or out on him at the moment.

Thats fair. It's hard to really make out much of a bigger plan. Don't get me wrong it's a lot better than under Walsh, but yes some confusion. Dowell going seems odd to me as well. I know it irks, but I just don't think he'd be any worse than your Sigurdssons, for a lot less money. I think we've moved quite a few players on who wuld have been no worse than what weve seen this season, at a fraction of the cost.
 
Re: Liverpool, Allison and vvd and Keita and mane were pretty well known

A mix of gambles and shrewd buys IMO

Mane was good for Saints but you wouldn't think he'd reach the heights he has...hence why a snip at £30mill.

Allison was an expensive gamble IMO as he'd only had 1 season had Roma.

VVD was also an expensive buy not necessarily based on quality IMO but Saints reluctance to sell. Because if he had that standout talent, he wouldn't have spent 6 years at Celtic and Southampton combined before making a jump to a bigger club at 28. Especially when good CBs are in short supply.
 
It wasn't
That’s knackers though. To suggest the actions of the owners can have no impact is absolute jarg. Ask him where he’s apportioned the £30m USM stadium rights deal fee btw.

Oh and your net transfer figure was £10m out.

You’re welcome
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Im open minded on Brands and i do see the sense in patience and running the antivirus and the concept of value, there is very subtle evidence that looking at value that logic is evident in what he is doing. Thats looking at it from a pure business perspective.

Its the football decisions that concern me with Brands, i was thinking of outs and ins last summer - Lookman, Vasic, Idrissa, Henry, in Delph, Sibide, Gbamin (gets a pass), Iwobi and spending 30 mill net. Thats not good decision making for me, i would have preferred to stick with what we had to be honest. i also look at the Baines situation, we are in position were we are likely looking for or need a left back - there was a decision made on Robinson or Baines last year, 6 months later the guy was within a hairs breath of signing for Milan. Im prepared to give him time as i think patience and consistency is vital in successful football clubs, but i do find some of his decisions regressive, even if there is logic in value and i do think he overall has improved the value of the squad, by just buying younger players really and letting their contracts run.

Lets see what this summer brings, im neither all in or out on him at the moment.

I'm not sold on Brands nor do i have the pitch fork out.

What I will say about getting rid of Lookman, Vlasic, Gana and Henry...

Henry - didnt look like getting a WP anytime soon (club would have made this decision based on that surely)
Lookman - wanted out, sulked when he didnt get his move and we got a very good fee from Leipzig.
Gana - 29, almost £30m for his age was decent, goes towards heling our FFP and cleaning up the mess we have.
Vlasic - again, £16m, a very good fee for a back up player. - Although I do feel he maybe didn't get a fair crack of the whip, but if the manager you have is saying he doesnt want him then you need to get him off the books.

Some of the ins I rate, some of them i do not.


it's worth remembering that the DOF role isn't just signing players, I hope Brands is implementing structure an systems within teh academy, u23's to link them together for the long-term. Our transfer strategy needs to be defined and again, even though we will pay money for players, i think if you look between Walsh and Brands there is a slight change to how we work. We are still recovering from the disaster that was Koeman and Walsh, I hope in 2/3 years time we have fully recovered, our footballing strategy is on point and we have progressed.
 
People like The Esk etc can try to make educated guesses at how much we have to spend etc. but the truth is, given the current economic climate, 'normal' goes out the window.

I can imagine we will see plenty of loans this summer with obligations to buy. Maybe even those crazy two year loan deals Turkish clubs love. I think there will also be a big reliance on clubs looking to maximize value and protect book value. Hence why there is fees involved in the Hojljberg/Peters deals rather than a swap plus 3 mil.

I think if Carlo and Brands really want someone, and the player is open to the move, then we will get him. That could mean we end up paying a large loan fee with an obligation to buy. Phil Kirkbride responded on the Echo discussion that the club were actively trying to bring in n1 targets on loan rather than buy 3/4 choice.
 
1: We need to move players on...

Thats really very obvious when we had over 35 players in the first team squad eating wages.

2: Brands hasnt done anything with the youth sides

Hasnt he? If not why? Who knows.. no one but those inside the club


3: We have only X million to spend

Total nonsense. There are plenty of ways around FFP.


Ancelotti also usually signs a handful or less players a year. Its unlikely we will sign more than 5 because of that data + the current squad size (even after a mass cull) + the wages need to come down.

I mean its hardly rocket science that we wont sign 10 superstars when Ancelotti and Brands are aligned in an evolution phase of a rebuild.


Not having a dig at him but it seems a bit pointless to analyse finances and link them to transfers or youth development or even capability of directors or coaches without any evidence or link between the two.

For me, i just hope Brands can shift out 15 or 16 more players this window and get us down to 16 ish first teamers. Then of course 5 more signings + youth players are added to the first team for a 23 man squad.

It would make my day to see some of our wasters punted.
This is it for me. The academy needs to kick in and hand us our "class of 92" era. I think that's what really stands out from the limited options that the esk highlights - so where are we on that? I dont get the impression we have a DoF who is on top of this side of the organisation. Obvioulsy you're limited to what's actually there, but just the co-ordination of Brands with the academy looks off to me; hence we see so much being spent on players no better than we have.

A club like Everton given the Covid19 situation, the straitjacket we're in finance wise, and the looming stadium costs (if it goes ahead) need to be turning to youth - using what we have and bringing in young players with potential from elsewhere (Branthwaite is a start).

We need courage to go that way - not a quality I see in enormous quantities in this organisation.
 

This is a good summary. His articles and podcasts I think are very interesting and informative and he presents his position very well. When he was on here he was very pro Moshiri and supportive of him,so it does make me laugh when I see people on social media saying he's always negative, that was never my impression of him on here. He's changed his view, and that he held a different view initially I think gives it validity.

He's had a successful business career and I think he wants to see Everton learn the lessons from what a conventional successful business would do. I agree with much of that (I've said a few times I'd make aserious offer to Leahy/Gilvary and potentially even a David Dein figure as well). However it is not always as simple as that. Football is if nothing else quite a hard industry to measure good governance. As a game it is very dependent on luck (as it is low scoring) and single bad mistakes or poor decisions can make an enormous difference. I mean we were poor last season, but you consider Ali at Goodison, DCL's winning goal, Brighton away and they are 3 enormous and obvious mistakes which would have seen us finish on 56 points in 8th.

I don't want to dwell on it, but the point is very few other industries work in that way. That all plans you do all week are essentially reduced to a 90 minute performance, and a 90 minute performance where there is such variance. It could also be, people within an organisation can do good work, and it takes a long time for this to really be noticed. So it's hard.

Most of what he says is fine, but there is an acknowledgement that a lot of the isuses go away if there is a big cash injection. This will often be said as well, something like "unless the major shareholder puts more money in, we will have to do x,y or z" and I always think well given past behaviour, surley the shareholder will just put more money in? Surely a major sponsor will just sponsor some more aspects of the club?

What I'd also note, and we all do this, is we see the world through our own axis. And it's not that someone's axis is wrong, but it's more that there are other interpretations. I have a bias that I want to see us operate how a German/Dutch club would, and put heavy investment into younger players/the academy. Thats my bias playing out, but it may not be the clubs bias. You have to try and see, Moshiri may not want the club to operate in that way.

I'vetried to stop arguing, but I've seen lads on there, who essentially will not countenence us signing anyone over 24/5 as all other signings are bad signings. Often this is without even knowing the deal. Coutinho, James etc are all just bad signings. Surely you have to see the context of the deal before you make that judgement? It's fine to say the priority needs to be x but also to be flexible enough to acknowledge that if y comes along and fits it's ok to pursue it.

I saw Billy Beane interviewed recently and he made a very good point, that moneyball is not really about signing cheap young players as people seem to think it is. It is about finding value. Now one way of finding value in football was doing the above, but it's not the only way. It's a market, marketsare fluid, if lots of people do 1 thing, the likelihood is value exists in other areas. Being able to move away from the crowd, avoid herd mentality and find new solutions is also important. In fairness to Liverpool, this is what they do most impressively for me. When you see them linked with a player, its normally left field. You can kind of see they are not just following the trend. Once a player becomes to a level of well known, they move on, which to me seems sensible. Its not just about sauing an asset is a good or bad buy, but understanding it is a good buy, in this climate, at this price point. Once those circumstances change, value is probably a bit lost.

The last bit about Liverpool.

That for me was the problem with Koeman relentlessly pursuing Sigurdsson and not commiting half the costs on the rising Maddison instead.

At the time Gylfi was the better player, but cost an absolute premium and had hit his ceiling. This then leaves us with an expensive player who has regressed and has no resale value. Bad business all round. I think you need to occasionally bring in an old, established head, but our transfers have been so scatter-gun with no obvious plan for improvement as a team.
 
If we don't get this right there is a very very real chance we could be well below 12th next season. We have so many glaring holes in our squad that we can't just sit idly on our hands. If FFP is pushed back a year and combined with next, make next the one we sit back on because we NEED to make sure this one gets done right.
 
Not sure his book price is £21.6 i make it £27 + mate, but i see what you are doing. Yet the Esk seems to have adjusted the figures to the 1/7/20 (the start of this financial year) - to illustrate, he has Sandro and Bolaise etc in the last year of the contract reflected in amort and book price. So Iwobis book price last year was £34 million and 27 mill this year, it will be £21.6 next July, essentially hes going no where soon. Thats going of Paul's figures mind.
His book price last year was 27m that's what we paid for him. The deal was 27m rising to 34m with add-ons.
The figures are often subjective, so The Esk has amortised the full value of the deal with add ons and coming up with a book price of 27 mill+, which i can understand, i also see what you guys are saying and coming up with 21 mill, im not sure is there a rule that the full potential of the value of a deal has to be on the books or are you guys right and its 21 mill? essentially Paul and you guys are accounting this differently, im not sure what is the right way myself, though i suspect its a liability and needs to be accoutered for, maybe one of the accountants on here know?

Yes if we bought him for £27mil and the £7mil additional is in clauses then It will depend on how the accounts are prepared.

We dont know if those clauses were on us making europe this season or other items.

Also if we sell him for £21.6mil with no clauses achieved then the £7mil there (which may be triggered today / tomorrow / in 3 years or never) goes where?

FFP is a minefield and i imagine this is all different to usual accounting.
 

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